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NHL Stack Finder: Friday, Oct 16

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Friday, Oct 16 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: PIT L1 (Malkin–Novak–Chinakhov) vs COL.

Data updated: Oct 3, 8:45 PM ET

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

#1PITL1vs COL0.55 xG
Evgeni Malkin82%, Tommy Novak11%, Egor Chinakhov48%
10.6 min/game · 3.70 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- COL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
- vs Mackenzie Blackwood .902 (68% to start)
- Blackwood .833 on transition shots
- Together 2 of last 2
#2BOSL3vs ANA0.51 xG
Pavel Zacha78%, Morgan Geekie96%, Casey Mittelstadt14%
10.6 min/game · 3.17 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 2 of last 3
#3BOSL1vs ANA0.50 xG
Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, JJ Peterka75%
11.3 min/game · 2.92 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 2 of last 3
#4ANAL1vs BOS0.46 xG
Alex Killorn5.1%, Mikael Granlund52%, Beckett Sennecke94%
10.5 min/game · 2.89 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 3 of last 3
#5PITPP1vs COL0.38 xG
Sidney Crosby100%, Erik Karlsson95%, Rickard Rakell83%, Tommy Novak11%, Egor Chinakhov48%
3.6 min/game · 9.42 xGF/60 · P(intact) 75%
- COL shorthanded time −1%
- COL PK xGA/60 −4%
- vs Mackenzie Blackwood .902 (68% to start)
- Blackwood .833 on transition shots
- Together 1 of last 2
#6ANAL2vs BOS0.38 xG
A.J. Greer7.5%, Cutter Gauthier98%, Leo Carlsson94%
9.9 min/game · 3.57 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%
- BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 3
#7COLPP1vs PIT0.35 xG
Nazem Kadri71%, Gabriel Landeskog50%, Nathan MacKinnon100%, Martin Necas100%, Cale Makar100%
2.7 min/game · 7.69 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- PIT shorthanded time +2%
- PIT PK xGA/60 +0%
- vs Arturs Silovs .890 (99% to start)
- Silovs .767 on rebounds
- Together 3 of last 3
#8BOSL4vs ANA0.26 xG
Marat Khusnutdinov11%, Fraser Minten47%, James Hagens50%
9.6 min/game · 1.80 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 2 of last 3
#9BOSL2vs ANA0.26 xG
Sean Kuraly0.2%, Tanner Jeannot6.5%, Mark Kastelic13%
7.3 min/game · 2.00 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 3 of last 3
#10ANAL4vs BOS0.24 xG
Frank Vatrano6.4%, Ryan Poehling6.7%, Nikita Nesterenko4.8%
7.8 min/game · 2.86 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%
- BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 3

By game

PIT @ COL

PITL1vs COL0.55 xG
Evgeni Malkin82%, Tommy Novak11%, Egor Chinakhov48%
10.6 min/game · 3.70 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- COL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
- vs Mackenzie Blackwood .902 (68% to start)
- Blackwood .833 on transition shots
- Together 2 of last 2
PITPP1vs COL0.38 xG
Sidney Crosby100%, Erik Karlsson95%, Rickard Rakell83%, Tommy Novak11%, Egor Chinakhov48%
3.6 min/game · 9.42 xGF/60 · P(intact) 75%
- COL shorthanded time −1%
- COL PK xGA/60 −4%
- vs Mackenzie Blackwood .902 (68% to start)
- Blackwood .833 on transition shots
- Together 1 of last 2
COLPP1vs PIT0.35 xG
Nazem Kadri71%, Gabriel Landeskog50%, Nathan MacKinnon100%, Martin Necas100%, Cale Makar100%
2.7 min/game · 7.69 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- PIT shorthanded time +2%
- PIT PK xGA/60 +0%
- vs Arturs Silovs .890 (99% to start)
- Silovs .767 on rebounds
- Together 3 of last 3
COLL1vs PIT0.13 xG
Gabriel Landeskog50%, Artturi Lehkonen57%, Nathan MacKinnon100%
7.9 min/game · 3.81 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- PIT 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Arturs Silovs .890 (99% to start)
- Silovs .767 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
PITL2vs COL0.12 xG
Sidney Crosby100%, Bryan Rust85%, Rickard Rakell83%
15.6 min/game · 2.80 xGF/60 · P(intact) 18%
- COL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
- vs Mackenzie Blackwood .902 (68% to start)
- Blackwood .833 on transition shots
- Together 1 of last 2
PITL4vs COL0.09 xG
Anthony Mantha52%, Elmer Soderblom4.8%, Ben Kindel40%
12.1 min/game · 2.70 xGF/60 · P(intact) 18%
- COL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
- vs Mackenzie Blackwood .902 (68% to start)
- Blackwood .833 on transition shots
- Together 1 of last 2
COLL2vs PIT0.07 xG
Nazem Kadri71%, Brock Nelson88%, Martin Necas100%
5.4 min/game · 3.21 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- PIT 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Arturs Silovs .890 (99% to start)
- Silovs .767 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
COLL3vs PIT0.04 xG
Parker Kelly11%, Jack Drury5.6%, Logan O'Connor0.2%
4.5 min/game · 1.91 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- PIT 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Arturs Silovs .890 (99% to start)
- Silovs .767 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
COLL4vs PIT0.03 xG
Valeri Nichushkin60%, Nicolas Roy4.9%, Ross Colton8.1%
4.9 min/game · 2.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%
- PIT 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Arturs Silovs .890 (99% to start)
- Silovs .767 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 3

BOS @ ANA

BOSL3vs ANA0.51 xG
Pavel Zacha78%, Morgan Geekie96%, Casey Mittelstadt14%
10.6 min/game · 3.17 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 2 of last 3
BOSL1vs ANA0.50 xG
Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, JJ Peterka75%
11.3 min/game · 2.92 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 2 of last 3
ANAL1vs BOS0.46 xG
Alex Killorn5.1%, Mikael Granlund52%, Beckett Sennecke94%
10.5 min/game · 2.89 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 3 of last 3
ANAL2vs BOS0.38 xG
A.J. Greer7.5%, Cutter Gauthier98%, Leo Carlsson94%
9.9 min/game · 3.57 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%
- BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 3
BOSL4vs ANA0.26 xG
Marat Khusnutdinov11%, Fraser Minten47%, James Hagens50%
9.6 min/game · 1.80 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 2 of last 3
BOSL2vs ANA0.26 xG
Sean Kuraly0.2%, Tanner Jeannot6.5%, Mark Kastelic13%
7.3 min/game · 2.00 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 3 of last 3
ANAL4vs BOS0.24 xG
Frank Vatrano6.4%, Ryan Poehling6.7%, Nikita Nesterenko4.8%
7.8 min/game · 2.86 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%
- BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 3
BOSPP1vs ANA0.09 xG
Hampus Lindholm17%, David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha78%, Morgan Geekie96%, JJ Peterka75%
1.1 min/game · 5.29 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- ANA shorthanded time +1%
- ANA PK xGA/60 +7%
- vs Lukas Dostal .889 (95% to start)
- Dostal .875 on cycle shots
- Together 2 of last 3
ANAPP1vs BOS0.08 xG
Alex Killorn5.1%, Jackson LaCombe98%, Mason McTavish51%, Cutter Gauthier98%, Beckett Sennecke94%
3.2 min/game · 6.06 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- BOS shorthanded time +13%
- BOS PK xGA/60 +12%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
ANAL3vs BOS0.03 xG
Ross Johnston3.2%, Jeffrey Viel4.0%, Tim Washe4.0%
4.9 min/game · 1.87 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (98% to start)
- Swayman .848 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3

How it works

Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.