Signature stats
Penalty Value: drawing and taking penalties, in goals
Drawing a penalty is a quiet way to create a goal, and taking one is a quiet way to give one up. Neither shows up in points. Penalty Value puts both into the same units as everything else: goals.
Updated · Method version sequences v1
How it's calculated
net xG per minor = (PP xGF/60 − SH xGA/60) × 2 / 60 = (6.77 − 0.76) × 2 / 60 ≈ 0.20
- PP xGF/60
- league expected goals per 60 minutes for teams on the power play
- SH xGA/60
- league shorthanded expected goals for, per 60, i.e. what the power-play team gives up
Penalty Value = (minors drawn − minors taken) × net xG per minor
- Minors only; majors, misconducts and coincidental penalties that do not produce a power play are excluded.
- Drawn and taken come from the "drawn by" and "committed by" fields in the play-by-play.
- We also track where and when penalties are taken: in the defensive zone, and late in a shift (see Gas Tank).
- Power-play units get their own number: net xG per power-play opportunity for each detected PP unit.
Penalty Value leaders in the research sample
Research sample: 200 games from 2025-26 (2025020500–699)
A minor is worth 0.20 net xG. In the sample, McDavid led at +1.8 goals and Kadri was +1.4.
Worked example
A forward who draws more than he takes
Includes example dataOver a stretch of games a forward draws 30 minors and takes 21.
- Net minors: 30 − 21 = +9.
- Value: 9 × 0.20 = +1.8 goals.
- For scale: +1.8 is what McDavid produced in our 200-game 2025-26 sample, the highest of any player.
+1.8 goals, the same as a handful of extra even-strength goals, without a shot. The penalty counts are illustrative; the 0.20 is the league rate.
Reliability
We have not published a split-half r for penalty differential yet. The value per minor is a league rate and is recomputed each season.
| Measure | Split-half r | Sample | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net xG per minorRecomputed each season. | — | League, 2025-26 sample | Stable |
| Player penalties drawn − taken | — | Full season suggested | Not measured yet |
| Tired penalties (60 s+ into a shift)1.9× to 3.5× exposure. | — | League | Stable |
Split-half r: we split each sample in two (for example odd and even games) and correlate the two halves across players or teams. Near 0 means the stat is mostly noise; near 1 means it is a stable trait.
Limitations
- A minor ends early if the power play scores, so the real average power play is shorter than 2:00 and 0.20 slightly overstates it. We use the full-length value for simplicity and consistency.
- Two-man advantages, four-on-three overtime power plays and offsetting minors are all worth different amounts; the single 0.20 averages over them.
- Referees call games differently, and "drawing" a penalty sometimes means embellishing. The stat counts outcomes, not how they happened.
FAQ
How much is a power play worth in the NHL?
In our 2025-26 sample, teams on the power play generated 6.77 expected goals per 60 and allowed 0.76, so a full two-minute minor is worth about 0.20 net expected goals.
Who draws the most penalty value?
In our 200-game 2025-26 sample, Connor McDavid led at +1.8 goals and Nazem Kadri was second at +1.4. Full-season leaderboards will replace the sample.
Do tired players take more penalties?
Yes: relative to ice time, penalties are 1.9 times as common 60–90 seconds into a shift and 3.5 times past 90 seconds. See Gas Tank and Schedule Edge.