Edgehalla

First Goal Scorer Projections Today

Who scores the first goal tonight? Each game below shows both teams' chance to score first and every skater's chance to score the game's first goal, with fair odds (no bookmaker margin). Projections, not picks.

Anytime goal scorer projections →·Track record →

Most likely first goal scorers tonight

  1. 1.Kirill KaprizovMIN vs VGK10%+942
  2. 2.Tage ThompsonBUF vs FLA9%+1011
  3. 3.Sam ReinhartFLA @ BUF8%+1120
  4. 4.Jack HughesNJD vs OTT8%+1182
  5. 5.Jack EichelVGK @ MIN7%+1251
  6. 6.Tim StutzleOTT @ NJD7%+1289
  7. 7.Matthew TkachukFLA @ BUF7%+1415
  8. 8.Matthew BoldyMIN vs VGK6%+1462
  9. 9.Drake BathersonOTT @ NJD6%+1624
  10. 10.Nico HischierNJD vs OTT6%+1624

FLA @ BUF1:00 PM ET

Team goals from the prediction market: 2.90 – 2.98 (player projections sum to 3.00 – 2.80). No goal in regulation: <1%.

FLAscores first 49%
  1. Sam ReinhartRW8%+1120
  2. Matthew TkachukRW7%+1415
  3. Brady TkachukLW5%+1941
  4. Carter VerhaegheLW5%+1941
  5. Sam BennettC5%+1941
  6. Anton LundellC3%+2930
  7. Eetu LuostarinenLW3%+2930
  8. Sandis VilmanisLW3%+2930
Show 6 more
  1. Aaron EkbladD2%+6150
  2. Boko ImamaLW2%+6150
  3. Gustav ForslingD2%+6150
  4. Lars EllerC2%+6150
  5. Sam LaffertyRW2%+6150
  6. Seth JonesD2%+6150
BUFscores first 51%
  1. Tage ThompsonC9%+1011
  2. Jack QuinnRW4%+2678
  3. Jiri KulichC4%+2678
  4. Josh DoanRW4%+2678
  5. Joshua NorrisC4%+2678
  6. Noah OstlundC4%+2678
  7. Rasmus DahlinD4%+2678
  8. Zachary BensonLW4%+2678
Show 9 more
  1. Justin DanforthC2%+5456
  2. Konsta HeleniusC2%+5456
  3. Mattias SamuelssonD2%+5456
  4. Olen ZellwegerD2%+5456
  5. Owen PowerD2%+5456
  6. Peyton KrebsC2%+5456
  7. Ryan McLeodC2%+5456
  8. Sam CarrickC2%+5456
  9. Tyson KozakC2%+5456

OTT @ NJD7:00 PM ET

Team goals from the prediction market: 2.92 – 3.01 (player projections sum to 3.40 – 2.60). No goal in regulation: <1%.

OTTscores first 49%
  1. Tim StutzleC7%+1289
  2. Drake BathersonRW6%+1624
  3. Dylan CozensC4%+2226
  4. Shane PintoC4%+2226
  5. Andre BurakovskyRW3%+3348
  6. Claude GirouxRW3%+3348
  7. Fabian ZetterlundRW3%+3348
  8. Michael AmadioRW3%+3348
Show 8 more
  1. Ridly GreigC3%+3348
  2. Stephen HallidayLW3%+3348
  3. Warren FoegeleLW3%+3348
  4. Carter YakemchukD1%+7043
  5. Hayden HodgsonRW1%+7043
  6. Jordan SpenceD1%+7043
  7. Nick CousinsLW1%+7043
  8. Thomas ChabotD1%+7043
NJDscores first 51%
  1. Jack HughesC8%+1182
  2. Nico HischierC6%+1624
  3. Timo MeierLW6%+1624
  4. Anthony ManthaRW4%+2464
  5. Arseny GritsyukRW4%+2464
  6. Dawson MercerRW4%+2464
  7. Jesper BrattRW4%+2464
  8. Luke EvangelistaRW4%+2464
Show 6 more
  1. Amadeus LombardiC2%+5163
  2. Cody GlassC2%+5163
  3. Dougie HamiltonD2%+5163
  4. Evan RodriguesC2%+5163
  5. Jesper BoqvistRW2%+5163
  6. Luke HughesD2%+5163

VGK @ MIN8:00 PM ET

Team goals from the prediction market: 3.02 – 2.99 (player projections sum to 2.70 – 3.10). No goal in regulation: <1%.

VGKscores first 50%
  1. Jack EichelC7%+1251
  2. Mark StoneRW6%+1686
  3. Mitch MarnerRW6%+1686
  4. Tomas HertlC6%+1686
  5. Brett HowdenLW4%+2603
  6. Ivan BarbashevLW4%+2603
  7. William KarlssonC4%+2603
  8. Braeden BowmanRW2%+5163
Show 7 more
  1. Marc GatcombRW2%+5163
  2. Nic DowdC2%+5163
  3. Noah HanifinD2%+5163
  4. Raphael LavoieC2%+5163
  5. Rasmus AnderssonD2%+5163
  6. Shea TheodoreD2%+5163
  7. Trevor ConnellyLW2%+5163
MINscores first 50%
  1. Kirill KaprizovLW10%+942
  2. Matthew BoldyRW6%+1462
  3. Blake ColemanRW3%+3025
  4. Bobby BrinkRW3%+3025
  5. Danila YurovC3%+3025
  6. Joel Eriksson EkC3%+3025
  7. Maxim ShabanovRW3%+3025
  8. Quinn HughesD3%+3025
Show 8 more
  1. Ryan HartmanC3%+3025
  2. Jared SpurgeonD2%+6150
  3. Jonas BrodinD2%+6150
  4. Marcus FolignoLW2%+6150
  5. Michael McCarronC2%+6150
  6. Nico SturmC2%+6150
  7. Rieger LorenzC2%+6150
  8. Yakov TreninLW2%+6150

How the first goal chances work

  • Each team's goals are a Poisson count. The first goal goes to a team in proportion to its expected goals, as long as someone scores in regulation: P(team first) = λ / (λ + μ) × (1 − e−(λ+μ)).
  • Team expected goals come from Polymarket's moneyline and over/under prices when available (3 of 3 games today), otherwise from the sum of the team's projected skater goals. On 2025-26 games, team scoring rates alone picked the first team to score only slightly better than a coin flip, so market prices are preferred.
  • A skater's share of his team's first goal is his projected goals over the team's total. On every 2025-26 skater-game this averaged 2.77% against 2.78% actual, within about 1 point per bucket.
  • Overtime-only and shootout games have no first goal scorer in regulation and are left out of the chances above.