Anytime Goal Scorer Projections Today

Every skater playing tonight with his chance to score: anytime (1+ goals) and 2+ goals, fair odds for the anytime chance, his power-play role and the goalie he is projected to face. These are projections, not picks.

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Updated 12:36 PM ET(hourly)

11 games • 450 players

Top 10 to score tonight

Full goal projections table ↓

1.
Kirill Kaprizov
MIN · LW · vs STL · 8:00 PM ET
46%
xG 0.62
2.
Connor McDavid
EDM · C · vs UTA · 9:00 PM ET
44%
xG 0.59
3.
Brandon Hagel
TBL · LW · vs SEA · 7:00 PM ET
42%
xG 0.54
4.
Alex DeBrincat
DET · LW · vs PHI · 7:30 PM ET
41%
xG 0.53
5.
Macklin Celebrini
SJS · C · @ NSH · 8:00 PM ET
41%
xG 0.53
6.
Steven Stamkos
NSH · C · vs SJS · 8:00 PM ET
41%
xG 0.52
7.
Kyle Connor
WPG · LW · @ CHI · 8:00 PM ET
41%
xG 0.52
8.
Leon Draisaitl
EDM · C · vs UTA · 9:00 PM ET
41%
xG 0.52
9.
William Nylander
TOR · RW · vs BUF · 7:00 PM ET
40%
xG 0.52
10.
Nikita Kucherov
TBL · RW · vs SEA · 7:00 PM ET
40%
xG 0.52

Anytime goal % is the chance of one or more goals, 1 − e^−xG, from each player's expected goals (xG) tonight in Edgehalla's goal model: goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time.

Chance to score tonight, every skater

GamePositionPlayer or teamPP1 only425 skaters

Chance to score tonight, every skater. Columns: xG, the chance of each line, and fair odds.
				Fair odds (Anytime)
Kirill KaprizovPP1LW · MIN vs STL · vs Joel Hofer (expected)	0.62	46%	13%	+1172.17
Connor McDavidPP1C · EDM vs UTA · vs Karel Vejmelka (expected)	0.59	44%	12%	+1252.25
Brandon HagelPP1LW · TBL vs SEA · vs Joey Daccord (expected)	0.54	42%	10%	+1402.40
Alex DeBrincatPP1LW · DET vs PHI · vs Joseph Woll (expected)	0.53	41%	10%	+1422.42
Macklin CelebriniPP1C · SJS @ NSH · vs Juuse Saros (confirmed)	0.53	41%	10%	+1442.44
Steven StamkosPP1C · NSH vs SJS · vs Yaroslav Askarov (expected)	0.53	41%	10%	+1452.45
Kyle ConnorPP1LW · WPG @ CHI · vs Spencer Knight (expected)	0.52	41%	10%	+1472.47
Leon DraisaitlPP1C · EDM vs UTA · vs Karel Vejmelka (expected)	0.52	41%	10%	+1472.47
William NylanderPP1RW · TOR vs BUF · vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (expected)	0.52	41%	10%	+1472.47
Nikita KucherovPP1RW · TBL vs SEA · vs Joey Daccord (expected)	0.52	40%	10%	+1482.48
Matthew BoldyPP1RW · MIN vs STL · vs Joel Hofer (expected)	0.51	40%	9%	+1492.49
Auston MatthewsPP1C · TOR vs BUF · vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (expected)	0.50	39%	9%	+1542.54
Tage ThompsonPP1C · BUF @ TOR · vs Sergei Bobrovsky (expected)	0.50	39%	9%	+1562.56
Tim StutzlePP1C · OTT vs NYI · vs Semyon Varlamov (confirmed)	0.49	39%	9%	+1602.60
Dylan GuentherPP1RW · UTA @ EDM · vs Tristan Jarry (expected)	0.47	38%	8%	+1652.65
Filip ForsbergPP1LW · NSH vs SJS · vs Yaroslav Askarov (expected)	0.45	37%	8%	+1742.74
Viktor ArvidssonPP1RW · DET vs PHI · vs Joseph Woll (expected)	0.45	36%	8%	+1752.75
Jake GuentzelPP1LW · TBL vs SEA · vs Joey Daccord (expected)	0.44	36%	7%	+1792.79
Sam ReinhartPP1RW · FLA vs VAN · vs Leevi Merilainen (confirmed)	0.44	36%	7%	+1802.80
Dylan LarkinPP1C · DET vs PHI · vs Joseph Woll (expected)	0.43	35%	7%	+1852.85
Nick SchmaltzPP1RW · UTA @ EDM · vs Tristan Jarry (expected)	0.43	35%	7%	+1872.87
Bo HorvatPP1C · NYI @ OTT · vs Linus Ullmark (expected)	0.43	35%	7%	+1882.88
Connor BedardC · CHI vs WPG · vs Clay Stevenson (expected)	0.41	34%	7%	+1972.97
Matthew TkachukPP1RW · FLA vs VAN · vs Leevi Merilainen (confirmed)	0.41	34%	6%	+1972.97
Alexis LafrenierePP1RW · NYR @ NJD · vs Nico Daws (confirmed)	0.41	34%	6%	+1982.98
Vasily PodkolzinPP1LW · EDM vs UTA · vs Karel Vejmelka (expected)	0.41	34%	6%	+1992.99
Drake BathersonPP1RW · OTT vs NYI · vs Semyon Varlamov (confirmed)	0.41	33%	6%	+2003.00
Mark StonePP1RW · VGK vs CGY · vs Dustin Wolf (expected)	0.40	33%	6%	+2033.03
Jack HughesPP1C · NJD vs NYR · vs Dylan Garand (confirmed)	0.40	33%	6%	+2053.05
Mika ZibanejadPP1C · NYR @ NJD · vs Nico Daws (confirmed)	0.39	32%	6%	+2103.10
Logan CooleyPP1C · UTA @ EDM · vs Tristan Jarry (expected)	0.37	31%	5%	+2233.23
Mark ScheifelePP1C · WPG @ CHI · vs Spencer Knight (expected)	0.37	31%	5%	+2233.23
Jack EichelPP1C · VGK vs CGY · vs Dustin Wolf (expected)	0.37	31%	5%	+2263.26
Pavel DorofeyevPP1RW · NYR @ NJD · vs Nico Daws (confirmed)	0.36	31%	5%	+2273.27
Roman KantserovPP1RW · CHI vs WPG · vs Clay Stevenson (expected)	0.36	31%	5%	+2273.27
Tyler BertuzziPP1LW · CHI vs WPG · vs Clay Stevenson (expected)	0.36	30%	5%	+2313.31
Brady TkachukPP1LW · FLA vs VAN · vs Leevi Merilainen (confirmed)	0.35	30%	5%	+2373.37
Bobby McMannLW · SEA @ TBL · vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (confirmed)	0.35	30%	5%	+2383.38
Carter VerhaegheLW · FLA vs VAN · vs Leevi Merilainen (confirmed)	0.35	29%	5%	+2413.41
John TavaresPP1C · TOR vs BUF · vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (expected)	0.35	29%	5%	+2413.41
Will SmithPP1RW · SJS @ NSH · vs Juuse Saros (confirmed)	0.34	29%	5%	+2443.44
Nico HischierPP1C · NJD vs NYR · vs Dylan Garand (confirmed)	0.33	28%	4%	+2533.53
Evan BouchardPP1D · EDM vs UTA · vs Karel Vejmelka (expected)	0.33	28%	4%	+2533.53
Ryan O'ReillyPP1C · NSH vs SJS · vs Yaroslav Askarov (expected)	0.33	28%	4%	+2563.56
Kirill MarchenkoPP1RW · TOR vs BUF · vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (expected)	0.32	27%	4%	+2683.68
Cole PerfettiPP1LW · WPG @ CHI · vs Spencer Knight (expected)	0.32	27%	4%	+2683.68
Dylan CozensPP1C · OTT vs NYI · vs Semyon Varlamov (confirmed)	0.32	27%	4%	+2703.70
Jack RoslovicRW · TOR vs BUF · vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (expected)	0.31	27%	4%	+2763.76
Jared McCannLW · SEA @ TBL · vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (confirmed)	0.30	26%	4%	+2823.82
Owen TippettRW · PHI @ DET · vs Daniil Tarasov (confirmed)	0.30	26%	4%	+2833.83

xG is Edgehalla's goal model: each skater's goals per 60 minutes (this season counted double, plus last season, pulled toward his position's average) times his average ice time over his last 5 games. Chance of 1+ goals = 1 − e^(−xG); goals per game follow a Poisson distribution closely (2025-26 backtest: 15.3% projected vs 15.2% scored). Fair odds have no bookmaker margin. PP1 is the top power-play unit over recent games. Projections, not picks.

Track record: 1,970 skater-games graded since 2026-10-06, average projected chance 16.9%, 16.6% scored. Past days and results →·First goal scorer projections →

Projected Goals Today, Sorted by Anytime Goal %

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Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Rost%	Anytime% ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	GWG^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	LW	vs STL	98.2%	46.0%	0.62	0.60	1.32	3.15	0.50	0.50	0.30	0.17	0.17	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.07	0.08	-	0.31	1.14	-0.10	22:41	21.04	11.50
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	vs UTA	99.9%	44.4%	0.59	1.20	1.69	3.02	0.60	0.50	0.60	0.15	0.47	0.63	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.06	5.79	5.93	49.4%	0.37	1.24	-0.17	22:50	23.89	13.92
Brandon Hagel	TBL	LW	vs SEA	99.6%	41.6%	0.54	0.60	1.04	3.26	0.80	0.60	0.80	0.16	0.20	0.36	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.07	0.32	0.39	-	0.39	0.99	0.03	21:27	23.67	10.33
Alex DeBrincat	DET	LW	vs PHI	98.6%	41.3%	0.53	0.60	1.03	3.42	0.50	0.50	0.30	0.17	0.18	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.07	0.29	0.35	-	0.34	0.94	-0.00	20:02	21.16	10.20
Macklin Celebrini	SJS	C	@ NSH	99.9%	40.9%	0.53	0.70	1.23	3.17	0.50	0.60	0.40	0.13	0.23	0.35	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.06	7.43	7.67	49.2%	0.39	1.28	-0.08	21:04	21.06	10.16
Steven Stamkos	NSH	C	vs SJS	94.4%	40.8%	0.52	0.40	0.92	2.46	1.10	0.40	0.50	0.18	0.15	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	3.89	3.30	54.2%	0.29	0.86	-0.09	19:06	20.94	7.45
Kyle Connor	WPG	LW	@ CHI	98.9%	40.5%	0.52	0.60	1.12	3.23	0.30	0.30	0.10	0.13	0.16	0.29	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.06	0.02	0.02	-	0.33	0.98	0.30	20:16	22.36	9.92
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	vs UTA	100.0%	40.5%	0.52	0.80	1.32	2.66	0.50	0.40	0.50	0.15	0.27	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	9.07	7.28	55.5%	0.33	1.27	-0.16	20:56	23.33	11.42
William Nylander	TOR	RW	vs BUF	99.0%	40.5%	0.52	0.90	1.42	2.65	0.20	0.30	0.20	0.15	0.28	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.07	0.63	0.81	-	0.37	0.96	0.02	20:19	22.43	10.51
Nikita Kucherov	TBL	RW	vs SEA	100.0%	40.4%	0.52	1.00	1.52	3.10	0.40	0.40	0.50	0.18	0.44	0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.03	0.03	-	0.33	1.30	0.02	20:46	21.50	12.10
Matthew Boldy	MIN	RW	vs STL	99.5%	40.1%	0.51	0.50	1.01	3.59	0.90	1.00	0.50	0.14	0.16	0.30	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.09	0.76	0.93	-	0.40	1.03	-0.09	23:13	20.73	10.38
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	vs BUF	98.9%	39.4%	0.50	0.90	1.30	3.30	0.80	1.30	0.20	0.14	0.27	0.41	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.06	9.45	7.07	57.2%	0.37	0.96	0.02	20:28	23.26	12.11
Tage Thompson	BUF	C	@ TOR	99.8%	39.1%	0.50	0.40	0.90	3.51	0.90	0.50	0.40	0.15	0.14	0.29	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.06	4.98	5.88	45.8%	0.33	0.96	0.02	20:37	23.48	9.58
Tim Stutzle	OTT	C	vs NYI	99.5%	38.5%	0.49	0.60	1.09	2.32	1.70	0.60	0.50	0.15	0.23	0.38	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.10	4.46	4.01	52.6%	0.35	1.09	0.06	21:23	26.28	9.42
Dylan Guenther	UTA	RW	@ EDM	99.2%	37.8%	0.48	0.40	0.88	2.76	0.70	0.30	0.20	0.18	0.17	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.28	0.34	-	0.27	0.88	0.00	16:22	21.32	8.75
Filip Forsberg	NSH	LW	vs SJS	98.7%	36.5%	0.45	0.60	1.05	3.05	1.60	0.50	0.40	0.13	0.20	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.15	0.20	-	0.39	1.13	-0.10	20:28	22.33	8.82
Viktor Arvidsson	DET	RW	vs PHI	41.7%	36.3%	0.45	0.50	0.95	2.95	0.30	0.50	0.30	0.15	0.15	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.21	0.24	-	0.22	0.73	-0.00	19:04	18.24	8.60
Jake Guentzel	TBL	LW	vs SEA	99.9%	35.8%	0.44	0.50	0.94	2.56	0.60	0.50	0.50	0.16	0.21	0.37	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.06	2.53	2.70	48.4%	0.31	0.97	0.02	19:17	22.09	8.86
Sam Reinhart	FLA	RW	vs VAN	97.8%	35.7%	0.44	0.40	0.84	2.27	1.20	0.50	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.34	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.08	1.98	2.37	45.5%	0.30	0.97	-0.16	18:10	23.56	8.55
Dylan Larkin	DET	C	vs PHI	95.1%	35.1%	0.43	0.50	0.93	2.93	0.50	0.40	0.50	0.12	0.16	0.28	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.06	10.53	9.42	52.8%	0.31	1.08	-0.00	21:24	24.00	8.49
Nick Schmaltz	UTA	RW	@ EDM	96.9%	34.8%	0.43	0.50	0.93	2.17	0.40	0.50	0.20	0.16	0.17	0.32	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.05	4.54	5.13	47.0%	0.37	0.94	0.00	18:16	23.51	7.57
Bo Horvat	NYI	C	@ OTT	92.7%	34.7%	0.43	0.40	0.83	2.62	1.00	0.50	0.40	0.13	0.12	0.25	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.05	9.51	7.51	55.9%	0.31	1.04	0.02	18:57	23.32	7.85
Connor Bedard	CHI	C	vs WPG	98.3%	33.7%	0.41	0.70	1.11	2.82	0.60	0.40	0.60	0.11	0.22	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	4.35	5.02	46.4%	0.35	1.09	-0.30	20:03	21.98	8.67
Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	RW	vs VAN	99.0%	33.7%	0.41	1.00	1.41	2.34	1.50	0.20	1.00	0.16	0.50	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.08	0.09	0.11	-	0.31	0.96	-0.14	17:03	20.97	10.56
Alexis Lafreniere	NYR	RW	@ NJD	92.3%	33.6%	0.41	0.50	0.91	2.23	1.20	0.50	0.30	0.12	0.14	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.24	0.31	-	0.31	0.86	0.31	19:45	21.65	7.36
Vasily Podkolzin	EDM	LW	vs UTA	87.8%	33.5%	0.41	0.30	0.71	2.15	2.80	0.70	0.70	0.12	0.08	0.20	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.29	0.39	-	0.22	0.65	-0.11	18:14	18.64	6.84
Drake Batherson	OTT	RW	vs NYI	97.2%	33.3%	0.41	0.40	0.81	2.21	1.70	0.30	0.60	0.14	0.14	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.16	0.18	-	0.30	0.86	0.05	17:18	23.57	7.13
Mark Stone	VGK	RW	vs CGY	95.3%	33.0%	0.40	0.80	1.20	2.22	0.80	0.90	0.30	0.13	0.34	0.47	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.07	0.10	0.12	-	0.32	0.95	-0.01	18:39	21.42	9.91
Jack Hughes	NJD	C	vs NYR	99.8%	32.8%	0.40	0.70	1.10	3.31	0.10	0.50	0.20	0.10	0.24	0.34	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.04	3.26	5.00	39.5%	0.38	1.32	-0.10	21:22	21.59	10.18
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	@ NJD	98.0%	32.3%	0.39	0.70	1.09	2.52	1.30	0.80	0.20	0.11	0.23	0.34	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.05	7.23	6.33	53.3%	0.35	1.10	0.35	21:20	24.43	8.54
Logan Cooley	UTA	C	@ EDM	94.1%	31.0%	0.37	0.50	0.87	1.81	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.12	0.21	0.32	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	5.31	6.03	46.8%	0.31	0.95	0.00	18:28	22.38	7.23
Mark Scheifele	WPG	C	@ CHI	98.4%	31.0%	0.37	0.80	1.17	2.09	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.08	0.21	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	7.21	7.94	47.6%	0.34	1.17	0.30	20:00	21.30	8.33
Jack Eichel	VGK	C	vs CGY	99.9%	30.7%	0.37	1.00	1.37	3.03	0.40	0.80	0.20	0.11	0.44	0.55	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.06	7.61	8.46	47.3%	0.37	1.19	-0.01	20:31	22.34	12.00
Pavel Dorofeyev	NYR	RW	@ NJD	90.8%	30.6%	0.36	0.30	0.76	2.45	0.50	0.40	0.20	0.11	0.10	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.02	0.03	-	0.26	0.81	0.29	17:40	19.44	6.99
Roman Kantserov	CHI	RW	vs WPG	52.4%	30.6%	0.36	0.20	0.67	2.06	0.80	0.30	0.40	0.10	0.05	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	2.55	3.10	45.1%	0.29	0.81	-0.23	18:47	18.02	5.39
Tyler Bertuzzi	CHI	LW	vs WPG	51.8%	30.2%	0.36	0.30	0.66	1.93	0.80	0.20	0.40	0.09	0.08	0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.45	0.53	-	0.28	0.93	-0.25	17:44	19.01	5.46
Brady Tkachuk	FLA	LW	vs VAN	99.0%	29.7%	0.35	0.50	0.85	2.64	3.30	0.20	1.20	0.13	0.21	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.07	2.66	2.45	52.1%	0.27	0.84	-0.13	14:59	23.39	8.42
Bobby McMann	SEA	LW	@ TBL	48.7%	29.6%	0.35	0.20	0.55	2.19	2.20	0.50	0.40	0.06	0.03	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.16	0.16	-	0.24	0.71	0.13	16:09	19.60	5.81
John Tavares	TOR	C	vs BUF	94.7%	29.3%	0.35	0.50	0.95	2.26	1.10	0.40	0.40	0.10	0.16	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	9.56	7.29	56.8%	0.29	0.94	0.02	17:20	21.15	7.18
Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	LW	vs VAN	67.7%	29.3%	0.35	0.30	0.65	2.32	0.70	0.30	0.40	0.10	0.09	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.58	0.68	-	0.29	0.87	-0.15	17:19	21.45	6.48
Will Smith	SJS	RW	@ NSH	95.1%	29.1%	0.34	0.50	0.84	2.36	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.09	0.14	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.72	0.82	-	0.26	0.89	-0.06	19:02	18.92	6.46
Nico Hischier	NJD	C	vs NYR	96.5%	28.3%	0.33	0.40	0.63	2.32	0.70	0.80	0.20	0.10	0.12	0.23	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	12.00	9.86	54.9%	0.32	0.92	-0.09	19:13	23.46	6.69
Evan Bouchard	EDM	D	vs UTA	99.9%	28.3%	0.33	0.70	1.03	2.27	0.40	1.40	0.40	0.12	0.31	0.43	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.00	-	0.39	1.34	-0.19	24:23	26.46	10.59
Ryan O'Reilly	NSH	C	vs SJS	81.6%	28.1%	0.33	0.60	0.93	2.06	0.30	0.80	0.30	0.09	0.20	0.29	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.04	9.12	7.60	54.6%	0.36	0.88	-0.10	21:13	23.80	7.18
Kirill Marchenko	TOR	RW	vs BUF	98.1%	27.2%	0.32	0.60	0.92	2.51	0.90	0.50	0.60	0.09	0.20	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.08	0.09	-	0.34	0.96	0.02	18:13	20.63	8.11
Cole Perfetti	WPG	LW	@ CHI	82.5%	27.2%	0.32	0.40	0.72	2.54	0.90	0.40	0.20	0.09	0.12	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.23	0.26	-	0.29	0.75	0.22	18:20	18.47	6.60
Dylan Cozens	OTT	C	vs NYI	84.6%	27.0%	0.31	0.40	0.71	2.43	2.60	0.40	0.60	0.10	0.15	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.06	5.83	5.28	52.5%	0.26	0.82	0.05	17:56	23.07	6.39
Jack Roslovic	TOR	RW	vs BUF	34.8%	26.6%	0.31	0.30	0.61	2.09	0.50	0.30	0.30	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	1.89	1.79	51.4%	0.24	0.77	0.02	16:08	18.37	5.06
Jared McCann	SEA	LW	@ TBL	77.8%	26.2%	0.30	0.40	0.70	1.80	0.70	0.40	0.20	0.08	0.11	0.18	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.50	0.60	-	0.26	0.83	0.13	15:09	21.78	6.22
Owen Tippett	PHI	RW	@ DET	72.7%	26.1%	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.50	1.70	0.60	0.30	0.06	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.12	0.15	-	0.28	0.85	0.03	17:36	21.50	6.02
Robert Thomas	STL	C	@ MIN	84.9%	26.0%	0.30	0.50	0.80	1.67	0.20	0.50	0.30	0.06	0.11	0.17	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.04	9.34	8.49	52.4%	0.33	1.10	0.17	18:54	24.49	6.91
Jack Quinn	BUF	RW	@ TOR	50.6%	25.7%	0.30	0.30	0.70	2.91	0.80	0.20	0.20	0.09	0.11	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.07	0.08	-	0.23	0.86	0.02	19:37	20.48	5.78
Jimmy Snuggerud	STL	RW	@ MIN	77.3%	25.6%	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.31	0.80	0.50	0.20	0.06	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.09	0.12	-	0.27	0.89	0.14	16:58	21.27	6.28
Gabriel Perreault	NYR	RW	@ NJD	64.9%	25.5%	0.29	0.40	0.69	1.67	0.50	0.50	0.10	0.04	0.08	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.10	0.13	-	0.23	0.75	0.31	17:47	20.85	5.77
Tyson Foerster	PHI	LW	@ DET	35.0%	25.5%	0.29	0.20	0.49	1.81	1.10	0.70	0.50	0.07	0.05	0.12	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.02	-	0.25	0.75	0.03	16:56	22.41	4.77
Jake Debrusk	VAN	RW	@ FLA	48.1%	25.5%	0.29	0.20	0.49	2.17	0.90	0.50	0.20	0.08	0.05	0.13	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.18	0.21	-	0.29	0.74	0.03	15:56	21.30	5.06
Shane Pinto	OTT	C	vs NYI	45.6%	25.4%	0.29	0.40	0.69	2.21	1.30	0.60	0.70	0.07	0.11	0.19	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.06	5.99	5.79	50.8%	0.32	0.87	0.06	19:24	25.83	6.66
Jordan Eberle	SEA	RW	@ TBL	47.6%	25.4%	0.29	0.30	0.59	1.77	0.90	0.60	0.50	0.06	0.08	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.16	0.19	-	0.31	0.85	0.14	16:12	21.90	5.46
Lucas Raymond	DET	RW	vs PHI	94.3%	25.4%	0.29	0.70	0.99	2.35	0.50	0.30	0.30	0.08	0.26	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.02	-	0.34	0.94	-0.00	19:38	22.27	8.15
Trevor Connelly	VGK	LW	vs CGY	41.1%	25.4%	0.29	0.30	0.59	2.07	0.30	0.40	0.20	0.10	0.11	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.19	0.24	-	0.24	0.77	-0.00	13:56	17.63	5.35
Mason McTavish	STL	C	@ MIN	64.0%	25.3%	0.29	0.30	0.49	2.33	0.90	0.40	0.40	0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	5.72	5.86	49.4%	0.23	0.76	0.13	16:19	20.21	5.15
Tomas Hertl	VGK	C	vs CGY	86.8%	24.7%	0.28	0.40	0.68	2.32	1.70	0.60	0.30	0.12	0.15	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	7.84	6.09	56.3%	0.24	0.76	-0.01	15:34	18.58	6.61
Morgan Frost	CGY	C	@ VGK	19.4%	24.7%	0.28	0.20	0.48	1.72	0.60	0.60	0.30	0.07	0.05	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	6.92	5.93	53.8%	0.26	0.73	-0.38	16:32	20.33	4.30
Anthony Cirelli	TBL	C	vs SEA	45.9%	24.5%	0.28	0.30	0.68	1.76	0.80	0.70	0.60	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.04	7.91	8.30	48.8%	0.29	0.89	0.03	17:47	23.52	6.69
Igor Chernyshov	SJS	LW	@ NSH	51.6%	24.4%	0.28	0.30	0.58	1.56	0.50	0.40	0.20	0.04	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.01	-	0.27	0.72	-0.06	14:20	18.59	5.28
Anthony Mantha	NJD	RW	vs NYR	37.8%	24.4%	0.28	0.30	0.58	1.23	0.80	0.40	0.50	0.05	0.06	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.20	0.26	-	0.23	0.80	-0.07	11:46	17.65	5.18
Brayden Point	TBL	C	vs SEA	94.8%	24.1%	0.28	0.40	0.68	2.22	0.20	0.40	0.20	0.09	0.14	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	5.09	5.69	47.2%	0.30	0.83	0.02	18:28	20.91	6.96
Clayton Keller	UTA	LW	@ EDM	99.7%	24.1%	0.28	0.70	0.98	2.28	0.20	0.30	0.40	0.09	0.32	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.15	0.19	-	0.29	1.05	0.00	17:28	22.31	7.65
Sam Bennett	FLA	C	vs VAN	80.9%	24.0%	0.28	0.40	0.77	2.30	1.90	0.40	1.00	0.08	0.13	0.21	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.05	6.51	7.06	48.0%	0.28	0.93	-0.15	17:03	21.58	6.55
Gabriel Vilardi	WPG	RW	@ CHI	74.3%	24.0%	0.27	0.50	0.77	1.85	0.30	0.40	0.20	0.07	0.16	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.88	0.91	-	0.28	0.83	0.25	17:04	19.40	6.35
William Karlsson	VGK	C	vs CGY	19.3%	23.8%	0.27	0.30	0.57	2.05	0.30	0.90	0.20	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.05	7.99	5.75	58.1%	0.27	0.76	-0.01	17:31	20.48	6.13
Brock Boeser	VAN	RW	@ FLA	60.7%	23.6%	0.27	0.30	0.47	1.73	0.70	0.40	0.30	0.07	0.10	0.16	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.61	0.77	-	0.28	0.96	0.04	17:21	21.50	4.42
Mitch Marner	VGK	RW	vs CGY	99.0%	23.6%	0.27	0.90	1.17	2.35	0.40	0.80	0.30	0.08	0.34	0.43	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.05	1.26	1.69	-	0.42	1.23	-0.01	19:26	22.34	9.21
Trevor Zegras	PHI	LW	@ DET	76.7%	23.5%	0.27	0.50	0.77	1.81	0.50	0.40	0.70	0.06	0.14	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	2.08	3.11	40.0%	0.28	0.93	0.03	18:38	21.29	5.91
Joel Eriksson Ek	MIN	C	vs STL	77.9%	23.2%	0.26	0.40	0.56	2.82	1.40	0.70	0.30	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	9.72	9.89	49.6%	0.31	0.87	-0.09	21:07	20.53	7.38
Noah Ostlund	BUF	C	@ TOR	30.0%	23.1%	0.26	0.20	0.56	1.89	0.10	0.30	0.20	0.08	0.06	0.14	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	2.32	3.47	40.0%	0.22	0.72	0.01	17:52	19.03	4.78
Jesper Bratt	NJD	RW	vs NYR	95.5%	23.1%	0.26	0.60	0.96	2.27	1.20	0.40	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.28	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.05	0.06	-	0.30	1.05	-0.09	18:35	22.29	7.17
Kasperi Kapanen	EDM	RW	vs UTA	16.4%	23.0%	0.26	0.20	0.46	1.94	1.30	0.40	0.30	0.06	0.05	0.12	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.21	0.24	-	0.20	0.68	-0.11	18:08	18.06	3.47
Dylan Holloway	STL	LW	@ MIN	90.1%	23.0%	0.26	0.50	0.66	2.25	1.90	0.60	0.20	0.05	0.11	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.46	0.55	-	0.25	0.77	0.14	17:14	20.51	6.57
Blake Coleman	MIN	RW	vs STL	41.9%	22.6%	0.26	0.30	0.56	2.03	2.10	0.80	0.80	0.04	0.05	0.08	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.28	0.35	-	0.29	0.94	-0.09	15:36	22.34	5.64
Owen Michaels	EDM	C	vs UTA	8.1%	22.6%	0.26	0.10	0.36	1.17	0.70	0.40	0.30	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	4.61	4.82	48.9%	0.17	0.53	-0.09	13:59	17.91	3.14
Marco Rossi	VAN	C	@ FLA	65.0%	22.6%	0.26	0.30	0.56	1.46	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.06	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	5.26	5.35	49.6%	0.31	0.85	0.04	16:33	20.47	4.44
Ivan Barbashev	VGK	LW	vs CGY	65.2%	22.3%	0.25	0.50	0.75	1.80	1.90	0.50	0.30	0.02	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.25	0.34	-	0.26	0.91	-0.01	16:25	19.91	6.32
Josh Doan	BUF	RW	@ TOR	53.6%	22.2%	0.25	0.30	0.45	2.22	1.20	0.50	0.30	0.06	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.18	0.23	-	0.29	0.80	0.01	16:53	19.91	5.11
Matthew Wood	NSH	RW	vs SJS	30.6%	22.0%	0.25	0.20	0.45	1.59	1.00	0.40	0.20	0.07	0.06	0.13	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	1.58	2.22	41.6%	0.19	0.67	-0.06	14:23	15.55	4.29
Aydar Suniev	CGY	LW	@ VGK	8.1%	21.9%	0.25	0.20	0.45	1.25	0.60	0.40	0.30	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.02	0.02	-	0.16	0.52	-0.24	12:35	13.40	3.58
Darren Raddysh	TOR	D	vs BUF	97.3%	21.9%	0.25	0.70	0.95	2.57	0.90	1.30	0.60	0.10	0.31	0.41	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.00	-	0.28	1.11	0.02	22:38	22.69	7.98
Kailer Yamamoto	UTA	RW	@ EDM	4.3%	21.9%	0.25	0.20	0.45	1.19	0.90	0.30	0.20	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.36	0.44	-	0.20	0.55	0.00	14:18	16.59	4.18
Frank Nazar	CHI	C	vs WPG	49.4%	21.9%	0.25	0.40	0.55	2.30	0.60	0.60	0.40	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	5.62	6.19	47.6%	0.30	0.95	-0.26	17:30	21.14	5.18
Matvei Michkov	PHI	RW	@ DET	79.7%	21.8%	0.25	0.30	0.55	1.74	0.30	0.30	0.70	0.06	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.24	0.29	-	0.26	0.86	0.03	14:38	20.13	4.38
Mason Marchment	SJS	LW	@ NSH	40.8%	21.8%	0.25	0.30	0.55	1.80	1.10	0.40	0.60	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.25	0.33	-	0.33	0.88	-0.06	16:14	19.19	4.97
Kiefer Sherwood	SJS	RW	@ NSH	55.2%	21.7%	0.25	0.20	0.45	1.93	4.00	0.30	0.50	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.25	0.31	-	0.26	0.81	-0.06	14:45	19.85	4.07
Patrick Kane	CHI	RW	vs WPG	70.4%	21.7%	0.24	0.50	0.64	2.45	0.40	0.50	0.40	0.06	0.14	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.08	0.10	-	0.24	0.83	-0.27	19:42	20.81	5.37
Will Cuylle	NYR	LW	@ NJD	67.5%	21.6%	0.24	0.30	0.54	1.83	4.10	0.60	0.50	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.67	0.73	-	0.21	0.74	0.30	16:40	21.55	5.36
Matthew Coronato	CGY	RW	@ VGK	36.3%	21.6%	0.24	0.30	0.54	2.31	0.30	0.30	0.40	0.05	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	1.37	1.54	-	0.30	0.77	-0.42	18:27	21.37	4.76
Connor Brown	NJD	RW	vs NYR	5.8%	21.4%	0.24	0.30	0.54	1.50	0.40	0.50	0.20	0.04	0.05	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.16	0.20	-	0.25	0.74	-0.08	15:18	17.95	4.65
Emil Heineman	NYI	LW	@ OTT	29.2%	21.3%	0.24	0.10	0.34	1.39	2.90	0.50	0.30	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.11	0.14	-	0.22	0.64	0.02	13:26	18.28	4.14
Pavel Buchnevich	STL	RW	@ MIN	31.3%	21.1%	0.24	0.30	0.54	1.74	0.40	0.40	0.20	0.04	0.07	0.12	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	1.13	1.60	-	0.29	0.91	0.16	17:36	23.38	4.92
Timo Meier	NJD	LW	vs NYR	77.0%	21.1%	0.24	0.30	0.54	2.58	2.00	0.70	0.50	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.56	0.67	-	0.30	0.93	-0.09	15:29	20.67	6.02
Lawson Crouse	UTA	RW	@ EDM	32.6%	21.1%	0.24	0.20	0.44	1.59	2.70	0.60	0.50	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.33	0.43	-	0.24	0.71	0.00	16:23	21.99	4.72

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

What drives goal scoring? Goals are the most valuable fantasy stat but also the most volatile. Our projections analyze multiple factors to identify tonight's best scoring opportunities.

Key factors

- Line placement: Top-6 forwards get more offensive zone time - Power play role: PP1 triggers score most goals - Opponent goalie: Backup goalies allow more goals on average - Shot volume: More shots = more goal opportunities - Shooting percentage: Hot shooters often stay hot short-term

League averages

The average NHL goal scorer has a 10-12% shooting percentage. Elite finishers exceed 15%.

💡

Pro Tip: Target players facing backup goalies with sub-.900 save percentages this season—goal projections spike in these matchups.

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Anytime goal % is the chance a player scores at least one goal tonight. It comes from his projected goals (xG) for the game: P(1+ goals) = 1 − e^(−xG), the standard Poisson estimate. A player projected for 0.50 goals has about a 39% chance to score; 0.70 projected goals is about 50%.

Tonight's projected goals come from Edgehalla's goal model: each skater's goals per 60 minutes (this season counted double, plus last season, pulled toward his position's average) times his average ice time over his last 5 games. Out of sample it beat LineupExperts' goal projection and matched the sportsbooks' anytime prices. Weekly and longer ranges use LineupExperts' projection, a licensed provider. Our model then splits the goals into power-play, shorthanded and game-winning goals.

Elite goal scorers like Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Alex Ovechkin, and David Pastrnak consistently lead projections. However, matchup-dependent streamers often offer better value on any given night.

Our NHL goal projections update hourly throughout the day, with final adjustments made when starting lineups and goaltenders are confirmed approximately 30 minutes before puck drop.

Goals are high-variance but high-reward. In category leagues, streaming goal scorers against weak goaltending can swing close matchups. In points leagues, consistent goal scorers provide elite value.

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