NHL Projected Faceoffs Lost Today

Some points leagues take points away for faceoffs lost. This projection is projected faceoffs taken minus projected faceoffs won. The list opens with the centers projected to lose the most draws, which means the highest-volume centers: they lose the most even when they win most of their draws.

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Sunday, Oct 4

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Updated: 5:13 PM UTC(hourly)

5 games • 42 players

Volume

faceoffs taken per 60 minutes from the player's own recent history, times LineupExperts' projected ice time.

Win rate

faceoff percentage shrunk toward 50.5% with the weight of about 96 faceoffs.

Faceoffs lost = faceoffs taken − projected faceoffs won.

Track record

over the rest of a season the projection is well calibrated (top three deciles within 8% of actual totals), but in one one-week window of our backtest it did slightly worse than a naive per-game rate, so treat single-week numbers as rough.

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Pro Tip: In leagues that score FOW and FOL, net faceoffs (won minus lost) is what matters: a high-volume center above 50% still nets positive.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Faceoffs Lost

42 players

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Skaters42 of 42

Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Rost%	FOL^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	GWG^†	FOW^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	vs LV	87.4%	9.39	0.20	0.50	0.80	1.70	1.10	1.20	0.20	0.05	0.15	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	8.71	48.1%	0.33	0.94	-0.19	18:54	23.03	6.30
Mikael Backlund	CGY	C	@ SEA	13.7%	9.11	0.10	0.20	0.30	2.00	0.50	0.30	0.30	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	9.05	49.8%	0.31	0.93	-0.35	18:18	24.39	3.70
Chandler Stephenson	SEA	C	vs CGY	16.9%	8.81	0.20	0.50	0.70	1.30	0.40	0.80	0.30	0.05	0.13	0.18	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	9.44	51.7%	0.34	0.90	0.38	19:12	24.17	5.30
Jack Eichel	LV	C	@ VAN	98.9%	8.35	0.50	1.00	1.50	3.80	0.50	0.70	0.20	0.13	0.37	0.50	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.05	7.72	48.0%	0.37	1.16	0.09	21:06	22.81	12.70
Mark Scheifele	WPG	C	@ DET	99.4%	7.85	0.30	0.50	0.90	1.70	0.50	0.50	0.60	0.07	0.14	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	7.25	48.0%	0.37	1.18	-0.08	20:54	21.32	6.90
Vincent Trocheck	UTA	C	@ NYR	88.5%	7.38	0.20	0.30	0.60	1.60	3.10	0.80	0.50	0.04	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	9.76	56.9%	0.35	1.07	0.26	20:54	24.81	5.10
Anton Lundell	FLA	C	@ ANA	45.5%	7.20	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.20	1.00	0.50	0.40	0.06	0.14	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.03	7.87	52.2%	0.26	0.87	-0.10	17:30	22.23	5.90
Matthew Beniers	SEA	C	vs CGY	49.6%	6.94	0.30	0.50	0.90	2.00	0.60	1.00	0.30	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.05	6.45	48.2%	0.31	0.94	0.37	18:54	22.36	7.10
Sam Bennett	FLA	C	@ ANA	83.8%	6.87	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.60	1.50	0.50	0.90	0.06	0.13	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	6.33	48.0%	0.29	0.90	-0.10	17:48	21.44	5.90
Adam Lowry	WPG	C	@ DET	5.7%	6.84	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.90	2.00	0.60	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	7.78	53.2%	0.26	0.70	-0.07	15:18	21.75	2.70
Leo Carlsson	ANA	C	vs FLA	94.2%	6.77	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.60	0.30	0.60	0.40	0.10	0.12	0.22	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.08	5.60	45.3%	0.31	0.88	0.04	17:42	20.94	7.50
Nic Dowd	LV	C	@ VAN	3.2%	6.67	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.90	2.00	0.80	0.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	6.49	49.3%	0.24	0.69	0.08	14:30	20.15	3.10
J.T. Compher	DET	C	vs WPG	4.0%	6.60	0.10	0.20	0.40	1.40	0.30	0.70	0.40	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	6.31	48.9%	0.24	0.75	0.04	16:12	21.55	3.50
Ryan Poehling	ANA	C	vs FLA	6.7%	6.48	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.20	0.70	1.40	0.20	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	6.10	48.5%	0.23	0.69	0.04	14:24	19.94	4.20
Tomas Hertl	LV	C	@ VAN	83.6%	6.29	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.80	1.60	0.70	0.40	0.14	0.14	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	8.04	56.1%	0.26	0.77	0.07	16:48	19.08	7.50
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	vs UTA	98.3%	6.25	0.20	0.40	0.70	2.10	0.80	0.70	0.20	0.06	0.12	0.18	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	6.95	52.7%	0.35	1.07	-0.18	19:54	24.21	5.90
Kevin Stenlund	UTA	C	@ NYR	0.1%	6.04	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.70	0.70	0.70	0.30	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	7.29	54.7%	0.22	0.69	0.19	14:00	20.41	2.20
Logan Cooley	UTA	C	@ NYR	93.9%	5.94	0.30	0.40	0.70	1.50	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.07	0.10	0.17	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.04	5.21	46.8%	0.32	0.92	0.21	17:42	22.18	5.80
Mikael Granlund	ANA	C	vs FLA	52.1%	5.93	0.20	0.40	0.50	1.70	0.70	0.80	0.30	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	5.91	49.9%	0.31	0.96	0.05	19:12	22.71	4.90
William Karlsson	LV	C	@ VAN	24.2%	5.81	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.10	0.40	0.80	0.20	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	7.62	56.7%	0.28	0.80	0.09	17:00	21.21	6.40
Ryan Strome	CGY	C	@ SEA	4.0%	5.80	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.20	0.50	0.30	0.80	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	4.83	45.5%	0.24	0.77	-0.28	15:18	20.06	2.70
Marco Rossi	VAN	C	vs LV	59.7%	5.79	0.30	0.40	0.70	1.50	0.70	0.50	0.30	0.06	0.10	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	5.56	49.0%	0.28	0.83	-0.18	17:36	20.49	5.30
Morgan Frost	CGY	C	@ SEA	22.8%	5.77	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.70	0.80	0.50	0.30	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	7.05	55.0%	0.26	0.75	-0.26	15:36	20.44	3.40
Frederick Gaudreau	SEA	C	vs CGY	0.2%	5.73	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.30	0.60	0.90	0.10	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	4.99	46.6%	0.27	0.71	0.36	15:42	20.99	3.70
J.T. Miller	NYR	C	vs UTA	91.8%	5.72	0.20	0.40	0.70	1.70	1.60	0.70	0.60	0.05	0.11	0.16	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.04	7.91	58.0%	0.31	1.01	-0.17	19:12	25.02	5.50
Andrew Copp	DET	C	vs WPG	9.2%	5.68	0.20	0.40	0.60	1.60	0.50	0.70	0.30	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	6.39	53.0%	0.25	0.80	0.03	15:48	20.93	4.90
Barrett Hayton	UTA	C	@ NYR	11.2%	5.59	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.40	0.60	0.40	0.50	0.02	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	6.24	52.8%	0.24	0.74	0.20	15:30	21.20	3.30
Tim Washe	ANA	C	vs FLA	4.0%	4.85	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.80	2.70	0.80	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	5.79	54.4%	0.20	0.57	0.04	12:18	18.15	1.70
Aatu Raty	VAN	C	vs LV	10.4%	4.78	0.10	0.10	0.30	0.90	2.10	0.20	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	6.48	57.6%	0.18	0.55	-0.14	11:36	17.58	2.30
Viggo Bjorck	WPG	C	@ DET	43.9%	4.62	0.10	0.20	0.40	1.30	0.40	0.30	0.30	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	4.28	48.1%	0.26	0.75	-0.07	15:36	19.17	3.30
Lars Eller	FLA	C	@ ANA	0.2%	4.57	0.10	0.20	0.20	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	4.95	52.0%	0.19	0.62	-0.08	12:18	18.37	2.60
Shane Wright	SEA	C	vs CGY	26.5%	4.48	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.50	0.80	1.00	0.20	0.04	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	3.53	44.1%	0.24	0.72	0.28	14:00	18.67	5.00
Noah Laba	NYR	C	vs UTA	11.2%	4.46	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.90	1.20	0.70	0.50	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	4.41	49.7%	0.20	0.62	-0.14	13:24	19.25	2.90
Jack McBain	UTA	C	@ NYR	17.4%	3.71	0.10	0.10	0.30	1.00	4.40	0.60	0.90	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	3.92	51.3%	0.23	0.67	0.19	13:42	20.03	3.10
Morgan Barron	WPG	C	@ DET	4.8%	3.43	0.10	0.10	0.20	1.00	1.80	0.50	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	3.16	47.9%	0.19	0.54	-0.05	11:36	16.56	2.70
Vladislav Namestnikov	WPG	C	@ DET	0.1%	3.15	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.00	1.20	0.50	0.40	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	2.77	46.8%	0.23	0.73	-0.06	14:36	19.41	2.90
Nate Danielson	DET	C	vs WPG	17.6%	3.00	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.60	0.40	0.40	0.30	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	2.63	46.7%	0.18	0.57	0.02	11:06	15.80	4.00
Ben Meyers	SEA	C	vs CGY	0.0%	2.97	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.10	1.40	0.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.04	0.02	3.32	52.8%	0.19	0.56	0.26	11:30	16.58	2.40
Joe Veleno	NYR	C	vs UTA	4.1%	2.97	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.70	1.90	0.70	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	3.07	50.8%	0.20	0.56	-0.13	12:06	16.05	1.40
Max Sasson	VAN	C	vs LV	4.9%	2.58	0.20	0.10	0.30	0.90	0.40	0.50	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	2.17	45.7%	0.19	0.58	-0.13	11:30	16.71	2.40
Berkly Catton	SEA	C	vs CGY	29.7%	1.39	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.60	0.20	0.60	0.60	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	1.31	-	0.23	0.63	0.27	13:06	17.29	3.90
Judd Caulfield	ANA	C	vs FLA	-	0.41	0.10	0.10	0.20	1.00	0.90	0.40	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.34	-	0.16	0.48	0.03	9:54	12.15	2.50

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Faceoffs won

The other half of the draw: volume times win rate.

Faceoffs Won Projections

Faceoff percentage

The shrunk win rate behind both projections.

Faceoff Percentage

Related Projections

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Frequently Asked Questions

Faceoffs lost scale with how many draws a player takes. A top-line center taking 20 a night loses more than a fourth-liner taking 6, even at a better percentage.

Over the rest of a season they are well calibrated. Over a single week they are noisier: in one weekly window of our backtest a naive per-game rate did slightly better.

Those centers cost the most in leagues that penalise lost faceoffs, and they are mostly the busiest centers. A fewest-first list would be topped by players who barely take draws. Click the column to flip it.