NHL Projected Faceoff Percentage Today

Faceoff percentage counts in some category leagues and is the skill half of faceoffs won. This projection is each center's faceoff win rate from this season and the last two (recent seasons weighted most), pulled toward the league average for centers by an amount that shrinks as his sample of draws grows. It is shown for players projected to take at least three faceoffs a game, so a winger who takes the odd draw cannot top the list.

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Sunday, Oct 4

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Updated: 5:13 PM UTC(hourly)

5 games • 42 players

Shrinkage

the projected rate is (faceoffs won + about 96 × 50.5%) ÷ (faceoffs taken + 96), with last season's and the season before's draws counted at a discount. A center who won 60% of 50 draws projects near 54%; a veteran with thousands of draws keeps almost his own rate.

Is it a skill? Yes: faceoff percentage repeats well from one season to the next (correlation about 0.78), much more than most percentage stats.

Minimum volume

players projected for fewer than three faceoffs a game show no FO%, because a handful of draws says little.

What it does not use

the opposing center, dot side or handedness. Faceoffs Tonight adjusts for those game by game.

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Pro Tip: FO% is a rate: it cannot win you faceoffs won on its own. A 52% center taking 20 draws a night outscores a 58% specialist taking 10 in the FOW category.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Faceoff Percentage

42 players

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Skaters42 of 42

Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Rost%	FO%^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	GWG^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
J.T. Miller	NYR	C	vs UTA	91.8%	58.0%	0.20	0.40	0.70	1.70	1.60	0.70	0.60	0.05	0.11	0.16	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.04	7.91	5.72	0.31	1.01	-0.17	19:12	25.02	5.50
Aatu Raty	VAN	C	vs LV	10.4%	57.6%	0.10	0.10	0.30	0.90	2.10	0.20	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	6.48	4.78	0.18	0.55	-0.14	11:36	17.58	2.30
Vincent Trocheck	UTA	C	@ NYR	88.5%	56.9%	0.20	0.30	0.60	1.60	3.10	0.80	0.50	0.04	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	9.76	7.38	0.35	1.07	0.26	20:54	24.81	5.10
William Karlsson	LV	C	@ VAN	24.2%	56.7%	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.10	0.40	0.80	0.20	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	7.62	5.81	0.28	0.80	0.09	17:00	21.21	6.40
Tomas Hertl	LV	C	@ VAN	83.6%	56.1%	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.80	1.60	0.70	0.40	0.14	0.14	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	8.04	6.29	0.26	0.77	0.07	16:48	19.08	7.50
Morgan Frost	CGY	C	@ SEA	22.8%	55.0%	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.70	0.80	0.50	0.30	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	7.05	5.77	0.26	0.75	-0.26	15:36	20.44	3.40
Kevin Stenlund	UTA	C	@ NYR	0.1%	54.7%	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.70	0.70	0.70	0.30	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	7.29	6.04	0.22	0.69	0.19	14:00	20.41	2.20
Tim Washe	ANA	C	vs FLA	4.0%	54.4%	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.80	2.70	0.80	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	5.79	4.85	0.20	0.57	0.04	12:18	18.15	1.70
Adam Lowry	WPG	C	@ DET	5.7%	53.2%	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.90	2.00	0.60	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	7.78	6.84	0.26	0.70	-0.07	15:18	21.75	2.70
Andrew Copp	DET	C	vs WPG	9.2%	53.0%	0.20	0.40	0.60	1.60	0.50	0.70	0.30	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	6.39	5.68	0.25	0.80	0.03	15:48	20.93	4.90
Barrett Hayton	UTA	C	@ NYR	11.2%	52.8%	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.40	0.60	0.40	0.50	0.02	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	6.24	5.59	0.24	0.74	0.20	15:30	21.20	3.30
Ben Meyers	SEA	C	vs CGY	0.0%	52.8%	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.10	1.40	0.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.04	0.02	3.32	2.97	0.19	0.56	0.26	11:30	16.58	2.40
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	vs UTA	98.3%	52.7%	0.20	0.40	0.70	2.10	0.80	0.70	0.20	0.06	0.12	0.18	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	6.95	6.25	0.35	1.07	-0.18	19:54	24.21	5.90
Anton Lundell	FLA	C	@ ANA	45.5%	52.2%	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.20	1.00	0.50	0.40	0.06	0.14	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.03	7.87	7.20	0.26	0.87	-0.10	17:30	22.23	5.90
Lars Eller	FLA	C	@ ANA	0.2%	52.0%	0.10	0.20	0.20	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	4.95	4.57	0.19	0.62	-0.08	12:18	18.37	2.60
Chandler Stephenson	SEA	C	vs CGY	16.9%	51.7%	0.20	0.50	0.70	1.30	0.40	0.80	0.30	0.05	0.13	0.18	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	9.44	8.81	0.34	0.90	0.38	19:12	24.17	5.30
Jack McBain	UTA	C	@ NYR	17.4%	51.3%	0.10	0.10	0.30	1.00	4.40	0.60	0.90	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	3.92	3.71	0.23	0.67	0.19	13:42	20.03	3.10
Joe Veleno	NYR	C	vs UTA	4.1%	50.8%	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.70	1.90	0.70	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	3.07	2.97	0.20	0.56	-0.13	12:06	16.05	1.40
Mikael Granlund	ANA	C	vs FLA	52.1%	49.9%	0.20	0.40	0.50	1.70	0.70	0.80	0.30	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	5.91	5.93	0.31	0.96	0.05	19:12	22.71	4.90
Mikael Backlund	CGY	C	@ SEA	13.7%	49.8%	0.10	0.20	0.30	2.00	0.50	0.30	0.30	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	9.05	9.11	0.31	0.93	-0.35	18:18	24.39	3.70
Noah Laba	NYR	C	vs UTA	11.2%	49.7%	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.90	1.20	0.70	0.50	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	4.41	4.46	0.20	0.62	-0.14	13:24	19.25	2.90
Nic Dowd	LV	C	@ VAN	3.2%	49.3%	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.90	2.00	0.80	0.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	6.49	6.67	0.24	0.69	0.08	14:30	20.15	3.10
Marco Rossi	VAN	C	vs LV	59.7%	49.0%	0.30	0.40	0.70	1.50	0.70	0.50	0.30	0.06	0.10	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	5.56	5.79	0.28	0.83	-0.18	17:36	20.49	5.30
J.T. Compher	DET	C	vs WPG	4.0%	48.9%	0.10	0.20	0.40	1.40	0.30	0.70	0.40	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	6.31	6.60	0.24	0.75	0.04	16:12	21.55	3.50
Ryan Poehling	ANA	C	vs FLA	6.7%	48.5%	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.20	0.70	1.40	0.20	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	6.10	6.48	0.23	0.69	0.04	14:24	19.94	4.20
Matthew Beniers	SEA	C	vs CGY	49.6%	48.2%	0.30	0.50	0.90	2.00	0.60	1.00	0.30	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.05	6.45	6.94	0.31	0.94	0.37	18:54	22.36	7.10
Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	vs LV	87.4%	48.1%	0.20	0.50	0.80	1.70	1.10	1.20	0.20	0.05	0.15	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	8.71	9.39	0.33	0.94	-0.19	18:54	23.03	6.30
Viggo Bjorck	WPG	C	@ DET	43.9%	48.1%	0.10	0.20	0.40	1.30	0.40	0.30	0.30	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	4.28	4.62	0.26	0.75	-0.07	15:36	19.17	3.30
Mark Scheifele	WPG	C	@ DET	99.4%	48.0%	0.30	0.50	0.90	1.70	0.50	0.50	0.60	0.07	0.14	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	7.25	7.85	0.37	1.18	-0.08	20:54	21.32	6.90
Jack Eichel	LV	C	@ VAN	98.9%	48.0%	0.50	1.00	1.50	3.80	0.50	0.70	0.20	0.13	0.37	0.50	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.05	7.72	8.35	0.37	1.16	0.09	21:06	22.81	12.70
Sam Bennett	FLA	C	@ ANA	83.8%	48.0%	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.60	1.50	0.50	0.90	0.06	0.13	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	6.33	6.87	0.29	0.90	-0.10	17:48	21.44	5.90
Morgan Barron	WPG	C	@ DET	4.8%	47.9%	0.10	0.10	0.20	1.00	1.80	0.50	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	3.16	3.43	0.19	0.54	-0.05	11:36	16.56	2.70
Logan Cooley	UTA	C	@ NYR	93.9%	46.8%	0.30	0.40	0.70	1.50	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.07	0.10	0.17	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.04	5.21	5.94	0.32	0.92	0.21	17:42	22.18	5.80
Vladislav Namestnikov	WPG	C	@ DET	0.1%	46.8%	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.00	1.20	0.50	0.40	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	2.77	3.15	0.23	0.73	-0.06	14:36	19.41	2.90
Nate Danielson	DET	C	vs WPG	17.6%	46.7%	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.60	0.40	0.40	0.30	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	2.63	3.00	0.18	0.57	0.02	11:06	15.80	4.00
Frederick Gaudreau	SEA	C	vs CGY	0.2%	46.6%	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.30	0.60	0.90	0.10	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	4.99	5.73	0.27	0.71	0.36	15:42	20.99	3.70
Max Sasson	VAN	C	vs LV	4.9%	45.7%	0.20	0.10	0.30	0.90	0.40	0.50	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	2.17	2.58	0.19	0.58	-0.13	11:30	16.71	2.40
Ryan Strome	CGY	C	@ SEA	4.0%	45.5%	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.20	0.50	0.30	0.80	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	4.83	5.80	0.24	0.77	-0.28	15:18	20.06	2.70
Leo Carlsson	ANA	C	vs FLA	94.2%	45.3%	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.60	0.30	0.60	0.40	0.10	0.12	0.22	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.08	5.60	6.77	0.31	0.88	0.04	17:42	20.94	7.50
Shane Wright	SEA	C	vs CGY	26.5%	44.1%	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.50	0.80	1.00	0.20	0.04	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	3.53	4.48	0.24	0.72	0.28	14:00	18.67	5.00
Judd Caulfield	ANA	C	vs FLA	-	-	0.10	0.10	0.20	1.00	0.90	0.40	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.34	0.41	0.16	0.48	0.03	9:54	12.15	2.50
Berkly Catton	SEA	C	vs CGY	29.7%	-	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.60	0.20	0.60	0.60	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	1.31	1.39	0.23	0.63	0.27	13:06	17.29	3.90

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Faceoffs won

Volume times win rate: the counting category most leagues use.

Faceoffs Won Projections

Faceoffs by matchup

Every center tonight against his likely opposing centers, with expected draws, win rate and a range of outcomes.

Faceoffs Tonight

Faceoff leaders

Opponent-adjusted faceoff ratings with 90% intervals and strong- and weak-side splits.

Faceoff Leaders

Related Projections

Build Your Stack

Complete Your Lineup

By Position

Frequently Asked Questions

Faceoffs won over faceoffs taken, this season and the last two (recent seasons weighted most), shrunk toward the 50.5% center average with the weight of about 96 faceoffs.

Early in a season a center's record is a small sample. The projection pulls it toward his past seasons and the league average until enough draws back it up.

FO% is only shown for players projected to take at least three faceoffs a game. Below that, the rate is mostly noise and would crowd the top of the list.

Yes, but not in this table. Our Faceoffs Tonight page projects each center against tonight's likely opposing centers, adjusted for home ice, dot side and handedness.