Banger Environment Index

Hits tonight: expected hits for Sunday, Oct 4

Every skater playing tonight, ranked by expected hits. A player's own hit rate and ice time drive the number. The Banger Environment Index then nudges it for how often tonight's opponent absorbs hits and for home ice. Use it to stream hits in banger leagues and to compare peripheral lines.

5 games · 180 skaters · updated Oct 4, 10:00 AM ET · model bangers-1.1.0

Game environments for hits

Hits absorbed is how often the opponent gets hit compared with an average team. The environment index adds home ice and the arena factor. Above 1.00 is a better hitting spot than average.

Tonight's games: each team's Banger Environment Index for hits (1.00 = league average) and expected team total.
Team	Opponent	Opp. hits absorbed	Env. index	Exp. team hits
WPG1:00 PM ET	@ DET	1.01	0.99	20.5
DET	vs WPG	0.95	0.98	19.1
UTA6:00 PM ET	@ NYR	1.00	0.98	22.5
NYR	vs UTA	1.06	1.06	25.6
FLA8:00 PM ET	@ ANA	1.02	0.99	23.9
ANA	vs FLA	0.99	1.01	23.7
CGY8:00 PM ET	@ SEA	0.97	0.96	19.3
SEA	vs CGY	0.96	0.99	18.8
VGK9:00 PM ET	@ VAN	0.98	0.97	23.7
VAN	vs VGK	1.17	1.15	24.3

Top forwards by expected hits

Forwards ranked by expected hits on Sunday, Oct 4
#	Player	Game	Exp. TOI	Hits/60	Env.	Exp. hits	P(3+ hits)
1	Will CuylleF	NYR vs UTA	14:46	13.5	1.06	3.47	62%
2	Martin PospisilF	CGY @ SEA	11:15	19.2	0.96	3.40	61%
3	Jack McBainF	UTA @ NYR	12:46	16.0	0.98	3.31	60%
4	Garnet HathawayF	FLA @ ANA	9:28	20.7	0.99	3.20	58%
5	Adam KlapkaF	CGY @ SEA	10:12	19.9	0.96	3.20	58%
6	Tye KartyeF	NYR vs UTA	14:15	12.6	1.06	3.13	56%
7	Paul CotterF	VAN vs VGK	12:43	13.1	1.15	3.13	56%
8	Marc GatcombF	VGK @ VAN	9:14	21.1	0.97	3.09	56%
9	Tim WasheF	ANA vs FLA	14:48	12.4	1.01	3.06	55%
10	Brady TkachukF	FLA @ ANA	18:39	9.8	0.99	2.98	54%
11	Lawson CrouseF	UTA @ NYR	17:28	10.2	0.98	2.89	52%
12	Joseph VelenoF	NYR vs UTA	12:31	13.0	1.06	2.84	51%
13	Keegan KolesarF	DET vs WPG	9:46	17.7	0.98	2.78	50%
14	A.J. GreerF	ANA vs FLA	14:30	11.2	1.01	2.71	48%
15	Aatu RätyF	VAN vs VGK	11:22	12.0	1.15	2.56	45%
16	Jeff MalottF	ANA vs FLA	8:24	18.2	1.01	2.54	45%
17	Ivan BarbashevF	VGK @ VAN	15:13	10.4	0.97	2.52	44%
18	Vincent TrocheckF	UTA @ NYR	18:22	8.3	0.98	2.47	43%
19	Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF	DET vs WPG	11:32	12.3	0.98	2.30	39%
20	Michael CarconeF	UTA @ NYR	13:45	10.3	0.98	2.29	39%
21	Adam LowryF	WPG @ DET	15:40	8.4	0.99	2.15	36%
22	Sandis VilmanisF	FLA @ ANA	11:13	11.5	0.99	2.11	35%
23	Brennan OthmannF	CGY @ SEA	10:33	12.4	0.96	2.07	34%
24	Brett HowdenF	VGK @ VAN	16:08	8.0	0.97	2.05	33%
25	Eeli TolvanenF	NYR vs UTA	13:38	8.6	1.06	2.05	33%

Top defensemen by expected hits

Defensemen ranked by expected hits on Sunday, Oct 4
#	Player	Game	Exp. TOI	Hits/60	Env.	Exp. hits	P(3+ hits)
1	Jeremy LauzonD	VGK @ VAN	16:38	11.6	0.97	3.05	55%
2	Luke SchennD	VAN vs VGK	11:29	11.8	1.15	2.54	45%
3	MacKenzie WeegarD	UTA @ NYR	21:00	6.6	0.98	2.26	38%
4	Elias PetterssonD	VAN vs VGK	15:19	7.4	1.15	2.13	35%
5	Neal PionkD	WPG @ DET	22:59	5.6	0.99	2.08	34%
6	Radko GudasD	FLA @ ANA	11:56	10.3	0.99	2.00	32%
7	Jamie OleksiakD	VAN vs VGK	19:20	5.2	1.15	1.89	30%
8	Parker WotherspoonD	VGK @ VAN	19:54	6.0	0.97	1.89	30%
9	Ben ChiarotD	DET vs WPG	19:37	5.9	0.98	1.87	29%
10	Braden SchneiderD	NYR vs UTA	18:03	5.7	1.06	1.80	27%
11	Cale FleuryD	SEA vs CGY	14:15	7.7	0.99	1.78	27%
12	Filip HronekD	VAN vs VGK	26:19	3.6	1.15	1.77	27%
13	Niko MikkolaD	FLA @ ANA	21:05	4.8	0.99	1.64	24%
14	Zach WhitecloudD	CGY @ SEA	22:17	4.4	0.96	1.53	21%
15	Mario FerraroD	WPG @ DET	20:20	4.6	0.99	1.51	20%

How the projections work

Player rate: Hits per 60 minutes over all situations. Recent games count more (half-life 40 games), and last season carries in at 50% weight. The rate is shrunk toward the forward or defense average with 25 minutes of league-average ice time, so a five-game heater barely moves it.
Expected ice time: A recency-weighted average of his last games (each game counts 0.8× the one after it). The expected lineup is the 18 skaters who dressed in the team's latest game this season. Anyone who has since moved to another club is dropped, and the gaps are filled from the previous game, then from the club's current roster (call-ups, new arrivals, season openers). A debut with no history gets his position's average rate and a depth-role 12 minutes (forward) or 17 minutes (defenseman). We don't read announced lines, so a late scratch still shows.
Opponent: hits absorbed: Teams that carry the puck more get hit more. Each team's hits absorbed per game (recency-weighted, shrunk 10 games toward league average) becomes an index where 1.00 is average, raised to the power 0.75 (fitted on 2024-25). Tonight's indices run from about 0.89 to 1.06.
Venue and arena: Home skaters were credited 4% more hits than road skaters in 2024-25, and the gap held in 2025-26. Arena scorer bias used to be much bigger. It shrank sharply when the league centralised event recording in 2024-25 (factors within about ±6%) and was undetectable in 2025-26. See the arena pages.
How accurate is it?: Fitted on 2024-25 and tested on every skater-game of 2025-26 (46,636 games), with each projection made before its game. Poisson deviance: model 1.176 vs 1.201 for the player's season-to-date average per game (2.1% better), and mean absolute error 0.856 vs 0.861. Single games are noisy, so the gain is modest. The opponent effect shows up more clearly at team level: the correlation between forecast and actual team hits rises from 0.33 (own rate only) to 0.40 once the opponent is included. These numbers assume the skater dresses. With our lineup rule, 6% of projected skaters (1.1 per team) did not dress in 2025-26. Counting those as zero hits, the deviance is 1.245 and the MAE 0.867, and team totals land within 1.9% of actual.
Probabilities: P(3+ hits) comes from a negative binomial around the expectation (size 7.8, fitted on 2024-25). It is calibrated: in 2025-26, games we gave about 35% landed 38% of the time, and games we gave about 55% landed 59%.

Back-to-backs moved hits by under 1% in both test seasons, and the pregame strength gap (a stand-in for expected score state) by 0–2%, so both are left out. Projections refresh several times a day, and lineups come from each team's recent games, not tonight's announced lines.

FAQ

How are expected hits calculated?

Expected hits = the player's hits per 60 minutes (recency-weighted and shrunk toward his position's average) × his expected ice time × the Banger Environment Index for tonight's opponent and venue. An index of 1.05 means a 5% better than average spot.

What is the Banger Environment Index?

A multiplier for how hit-friendly tonight is: how often the opponent absorbs hits (puck-carrying teams get hit more), times a small home-ice factor, times the arena scorer factor. 1.00 is a league-average spot.

Does the arena still matter for hits and blocks?

Much less than it used to. Up to 2023-24 some rinks credited 40% more hits than others. When the NHL centralised event recording in 2024-25 the effect shrank to within about ±6%, and in 2025-26 it did not repeat from one half-season to the next at all, so the factor is 1.00 everywhere. One more season will show whether it is gone for good. The arena pages show the full history.

Are these betting picks?

No. They are projections for fantasy hockey: an expectation and a probability, with the method and the error rate published. They are built from public NHL box scores and play-by-play.