Start / sit tools
NHL goalie start planner
Data updated:
172 team games over two fantasy weeks.
| Team | Mon, 9/28 | Tue, 9/29 | Wed, 9/30 | Thu, 10/1 | Fri, 10/2 | Sat, 10/3 | Sun, 10/4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | · | · | · | · | @ VGK Dostal 97%Confirmed | · | vs FLA Dostal 83%Projected |
| BOS | · | vs NYR Swayman Started | · | · | @ WPG Swayman 97%Confirmed | @ MINB2B Swayman 71%Projected | · |
| BUF | · | · | · | @ CBJ Luukkonen Started | · | vs CHI Luukkonen 70%Projected | · |
| CAR | · | vs FLA Bussi Started | · | · | vs WSH Bussi 97%Confirmed | @ PHIB2B Kochetkov44% 68%Projected | · |
| CBJ | · | · | · | vs BUF Greaves Started | · | vs UTA Greaves 83%Projected | · |
| CGY | · | · | · | vs SEA Wolf Started | · | @ VAN Wolf 77%Projected | @ SEAB2B Wolf 64%Projected |
| CHI | · | @ VGK Knight Started | · | @ UTA Soderblom5.6% Started | · | @ BUF Knight 77%Projected | · |
| COL | · | · | vs LAK Blackwood Started | · | · | vs STL Blackwood 74%Projected | · |
| DAL | · | · | · | · | vs STL Oettinger 97%Confirmed | @ NSHB2B DeSmith16% 74%Projected | · |
| DET | · | · | · | · | vs NYR Gibson 87%Expected | · | vs WPG Gibson 79%Projected |
| EDM | · | vs VAN Jarry10% Started | · | @ VAN Levi41% Started | · | vs SEA Jarry10% 70%Projected | · |
| FLA | · | @ CAR Markstrom Started | · | @ SJS Schmid28% Started | · | · | @ ANA Markstrom 76%Projected |
| LAK | · | · | @ COL Kuemper Started | · | · | @ SJS Kuemper 82%Projected | · |
| MIN | · | · | · | @ NSH Wallstedt Started | · | vs BOS Wallstedt 69%Projected | · |
| MTL | · | @ TOR Dobes Started | · | · | · | @ PIT Dobes 78%Projected | · |
| NJD | · | · | · | vs PHI Allen Started | · | @ NYI Allen 73%Projected | · |
| NSH | · | · | · | vs MIN Saros Started | · | vs DAL Saros 84%Projected | · |
| NYI | · | · | @ TOR Sorokin Started | · | · | vs NJD Sorokin 97%Confirmed | · |
| NYR | · | @ BOS Shesterkin Started | · | vs TBL Shesterkin Started | @ DETB2B Garand10% 81%Expected | · | vs UTA Shesterkin 81%Projected |
| OTT | · | · | · | · | · | @ TOR Ullmark 61%Projected | · |
| PHI | · | · | vs PIT Vladar Started | @ NJD Woll33% Started | · | vs CAR Vladar 75%Projected | · |
| PIT | · | · | @ PHI Silovs42% Started | · | · | vs MTL Silovs42% 87%Projected | · |
| SEA | · | · | · | @ CGY Daccord Started | · | @ EDM Daccord 80%Projected | vs CGYB2B Daccord 62%Projected |
| SJS | · | · | · | vs FLA Askarov Started | · | vs LAK Askarov 73%Projected | · |
| STL | · | · | · | · | @ DAL Binnington31% 83%Expected | @ COLB2B Binnington31% 52%Projected | · |
| TBL | · | · | · | @ NYR Vasilevskiy Started | · | vs WSH Vasilevskiy 85%Projected | · |
| TOR | · | vs MTL Bobrovsky Started | vs NYI Stolarz29% Started | · | · | vs OTT Bobrovsky 76%Projected | · |
| UTA | · | · | · | vs CHI Vejmelka Started | · | @ CBJ Vejmelka 86%Projected | @ NYRB2B Vejmelka 64%Projected |
| VAN | · | @ EDM Lankinen32% Started | · | vs EDM Lankinen32% Started | · | vs CGY Lankinen32% 75%Projected | vs VGKB2B Lankinen32% 61%Projected |
| VGK | · | vs CHI Hart Started | · | · | vs ANA Hart 97%Confirmed | · | @ VAN Hart 67%Projected |
| WPG | · | · | · | · | vs BOS Skinner41% 97%Confirmed | · | @ DET Skinner41% 74%Projected |
| WSH | · | · | · | · | @ CAR Thompson 97%Confirmed | @ TBLB2B Lindgren11% 97%Confirmed | · |
Cells show the most likely starter (with his average-league rostered % when under 50%). Hover (or long-press) a cell for every goalie's probability, rostered % and the model's main reasons.
Expected starts, Week 1 · Sep 28-Oct 4
Sum of each goalie's start probabilities over the remaining games of the week. 1.6 or more usually means two starts. Looking for one to pick up? Try the Streamer Finder with goalies selected.
| Goalie | Team | Games left | Expected starts | Most-likely starter in | Confirmed | Rost % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | ANA | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 1 | 81%▲50 |
| Stuart Skinner | WPG | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 1 | 41%▲28 |
| Jeremy Swayman | BOS | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 1 | 97%▲1.4 |
| John Gibson | DET | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | — | 71%▼0.7 |
| Carter Hart | VGK | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 1 | 87%▲34 |
| Karel Vejmelka | UTA | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | — | 98%▲3.2 |
| Joey Daccord | SEA | 2 | 1.4 | 2 | — | 54%▲22 |
| Dustin Wolf | CGY | 2 | 1.4 | 2 | — | 67%▲28 |
| Kevin Lankinen | VAN | 2 | 1.4 | 2 | — | 32%▲25 |
| Jordan Binnington | STL | 2 | 1.4 | 2 | — | 31%▲24 |
| Brandon Bussi | CAR | 2 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 96%▲9.6 |
| Jake Oettinger | DAL | 2 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 99%▼0.6 |
| Charlie Lindgren | WSH | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 11%▲9.9 |
| Logan Thompson | WSH | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Ilya Sorokin | NYI | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 97% |
| Dylan Garand | NYR | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | — | 10%▲10 |
| Arturs Silovs | PIT | 1 | 0.9 | 1 | — | 42%▲37 |
| Igor Shesterkin | NYR | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | — | 93%▲1.5 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 99%▲0.7 |
| Juuse Saros | NSH | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 84%▲15 |
| Jet Greaves | CBJ | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 86%▲21 |
| Darcy Kuemper | LAK | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 58%▼5.6 |
| Jakub Dobes | MTL | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 96%▲13 |
| Casey DeSmith | DAL | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 16%▲15 |
| Spencer Knight | CHI | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 79%▲17 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 88%▲16 |
| Jacob Markstrom | FLA | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | — | 89%▲42 |
| Dan Vladar | PHI | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 76%▲9.3 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 90%▲6.2 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | SJS | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 77%▲64 |
| Jake Allen | NJD | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 54%▲29 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | CAR | 2 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 44%▲41 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 77%▼1 |
| Tristan Jarry | EDM | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 10%▲0.9 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | — | 94%▲15 |
| Joel Hofer | STL | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | — | 79%▲1.2 |
| Linus Ullmark | OTT | 1 | 0.6 | 1 | — | 81%▼5.7 |
| Devin Cooley | CGY | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | — | 14%▲13 |
| Philipp Grubauer | SEA | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | — | 14%▲9.6 |
| Sebastian Cossa | UTA | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | — | 32%▲31 |
| Daniil Tarasov | DET | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | — | 11%▲9.4 |
| Thatcher Demko | VAN | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | — | 24%▲22 |
| Michael DiPietro | BOS | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | — | 15%▲15 |
| Leevi Meriläinen | VAN | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | — | 13%▲13 |
How it works
- For each game we list the team's likely goalies: the ones who dressed recently, plus last season's tandem and the current roster before a team has played five games.
- A conditional logistic model scores each goalie on start share (last 10 games and season), whether he started last night on a back-to-back, days since his last start, consecutive starts, rest, home ice and opponent points%. The scores become probabilities that add up to 100% per game.
- Future games are chained: if a goalie probably starts Tuesday, his chance on Wednesday's back-to-back falls accordingly.
- LineupExperts status is layered on top: Confirmed = 97%, Expected and Projected are blended with the model. Hover a cell to see the model-only number and the biggest reasons.
- The model was fitted on 2,623 team games from 2025-26. On the held-out month (2026-03) it picked the starter 76.9% of the time with a Brier score of 0.166, against 65.1% for simply taking the goalie with more of the last 10 starts.
Methodology: Back-to-backs and Schedule Edge · Data sources · Schedule Edge tool
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate a goalie's chance to start?
A logistic model compares each team's goalies game by game: recent and season start share, whether the goalie started the night before on a back-to-back, days since his last start, consecutive starts, rest, home ice and opponent strength. It was fitted on every 2025-26 regular-season game and picked the right starter 76.9% of the time in a month it had not seen (Brier score 0.166).
What happens when a starter is confirmed?
LineupExperts status overrides the model. A Confirmed starter is set to 97%. Expected and Projected starters are blended with the model, so a projection that contradicts a clear rotation pattern is softened.
Why does the backup get a high probability on back-to-backs?
Most teams split back-to-backs. In 2025-26, the goalie who started the first night rarely started the second, and the model picked the second-night starter 90.5% of the time in the holdout month.
How do I find two-start goalies?
Use the expected starts table under the grid. It adds up each goalie's start probabilities for the fantasy week, so a goalie with two likely starts shows about 1.8 or more.
How often does this update?
Every 15 minutes during the day. Results update after each game, and starter status follows the LineupExperts feed we poll through the day.