PP Opportunity Forecast
NHL power play opportunities tonight
How many power plays each team should get tonight, who plays on PP1 and PP2, and how many power-play minutes each of them projects for. Built from every team's penalty-drawing and penalty-taking rates and NHL shift data.
Most power plays tonight
Most PP minutes tonight
| Player | Unit | Share | Exp. PP min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack EichelVGK | PP1 | 82% | 3:39 |
| Alexis LafrenièreNYR | PP1 | 74% | 3:39 |
| Mika ZibanejadNYR | PP1 | 74% | 3:37 |
| Matthew TkachukFLA | PP1 | 67% | 3:37 |
| Mark StoneVGK | PP1 | 80% | 3:35 |
| Mitch MarnerVGK | PP1 | 80% | 3:35 |
| Adam FoxNYR | PP1 | 72% | 3:33 |
| Tomas HertlVGK | PP1 | 74% | 3:20 |
| Brock BoeserVAN | PP1 | 74% | 3:20 |
| Cutter GauthierANA | PP2 | 56% | 3:20 |
| Beckett SenneckeANA | PP2 | 56% | 3:19 |
| Leo CarlssonANA | PP1 | 55% | 3:18 |
| Jackson LaCombeANA | PP2 | 55% | 3:17 |
| Marco RossiVAN | PP1 | 72% | 3:16 |
| Seth JonesFLA | PP1 | 60% | 3:16 |
| Elias PetterssonVAN | PP1 | 72% | 3:16 |
| J.T. MillerNYR | PP1 | 65% | 3:14 |
| Dylan GuentherUTA | PP1 | 75% | 3:11 |
| Logan CooleyUTA | PP1 | 74% | 3:10 |
| Clayton KellerUTA | PP1 | 74% | 3:08 |
Every game tonight
WPG @ DET1:00 PM ET
WPG2.74PP opps (range 1–5) · ~4:31 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · DET shorthanded 2.9/gmWPG expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Mark ScheifeleC 76% 3:07 Kyle ConnorL 75% 3:04 Josh MorrisseyD 73% 3:00 Gabriel VilardiC 73% 3:00 Jonathan ToewsC 54% 2:16 PP2 Cole PerfettiC 39% 1:43 Brad LambertC 25% 1:09 Nino NiederreiterR 23% 1:04 Isak RosenR 18% 0:53 Colin MillerD 14% 0:44 DET3.23PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:31 PP time
draws 3.2/gm · WPG shorthanded 3.0/gm · homeDET expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Moritz SeiderD 60% 3:05 Alex DeBrincatR 60% 3:03 Lucas RaymondL 56% 2:52 Patrick KaneR 50% 2:36 Dylan LarkinC 34% 1:51 PP2 Axel Sandin-PellikkaD 31% 1:44 Justin FaulkD 29% 1:38 David PerronL 27% 1:32 Emmitt FinnieC 27% 1:30 James van RiemsdykL 23% 1:19 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
UTA @ NYR6:00 PM ET
UTA3.10PP opps (range 1–5) · ~4:41 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · NYR shorthanded 3.3/gmUTA expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Dylan GuentherR 75% 3:11 Logan CooleyC 74% 3:10 Clayton KellerR 74% 3:08 Nick SchmaltzC 73% 3:08 Mikhail SergachevD 72% 3:04 PP2 Michael CarconeL 27% 1:16 MacKenzie WeegarD 21% 1:02 Lawson CrouseL 20% 1:01 JJ PeterkaR 20% 1:00 Alexander KerfootC 19% 0:57 NYR3.18PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:24 PP time
draws 3.0/gm · UTA shorthanded 3.2/gm · homeNYR expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Alexis LafrenièreL 74% 3:39 Mika ZibanejadC 74% 3:37 Adam FoxD 72% 3:33 J.T. MillerC 65% 3:14 PP2 Gabe PerreaultR 29% 1:34 Will CuylleL 24% 1:21 Sean DurziD 14% 0:54 Eeli TolvanenR 14% 0:54 Oliver BjorkstrandR 13% 0:51 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
FLA @ ANA8:00 PM ET
FLA3.46PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:52 PP time
draws 3.4/gm · ANA shorthanded 3.3/gmFLA expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Matthew TkachukL 67% 3:37 Seth JonesD 60% 3:16 Sam ReinhartC 46% 2:32 Brady TkachukL 40% 2:15 Aleksander BarkovC 28% 1:41 PP2 Sam BennettC 48% 2:38 Carter VerhaegheC 42% 2:22 Anton LundellC 34% 1:57 Aaron EkbladD 26% 1:32 Gustav ForslingD 13% 0:56 ANA3.83PP opps (range 2–6) · ~6:25 PP time
draws 3.3/gm · FLA shorthanded 3.5/gm · homeANA expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Leo CarlssonC 55% 3:18 Mikael GranlundC 52% 3:07 Troy TerryR 45% 2:45 Chris KreiderL 44% 2:42 John CarlsonD 43% 2:38 PP2 Cutter GauthierL 56% 3:20 Beckett SenneckeR 56% 3:19 Jackson LaCombeD 55% 3:17 Alex KillornL 44% 2:40 Mason McTavishC 34% 2:10 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
CGY @ SEA8:00 PM ET
CGY2.74PP opps (range 1–5) · ~4:33 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · SEA shorthanded 2.9/gmCGY expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Zayne ParekhD 67% 2:47 Morgan FrostC 62% 2:37 Matt CoronatoR 56% 2:22 Matvei GridinR 50% 2:07 Joel FarabeeL 36% 1:36 PP2 Ryan StromeC 27% 1:15 Connor ZaryC 27% 1:14 Aydar SunievL 25% 1:11 Hunter BrzustewiczD 25% 1:10 Yegor SharangovichC 24% 1:07 SEA3.30PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:33 PP time
draws 3.0/gm · CGY shorthanded 3.3/gm · homeSEA expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Matty BeniersC 56% 2:53 Brandon MontourD 49% 2:32 Kaapo KakkoR 42% 2:15 Berkly CattonC 42% 2:14 Shane WrightC 27% 1:32 PP2 Jordan EberleR 56% 2:52 Chandler StephensonC 53% 2:44 Jared McCannL 53% 2:44 Vince DunnD 52% 2:43 Bobby McMannC 39% 2:07 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
VGK @ VAN9:00 PM ET
VGK2.96PP opps (range 1–5) · ~4:56 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · VAN shorthanded 3.1/gmVGK expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Jack EichelC 82% 3:39 Mark StoneR 80% 3:35 Mitch MarnerR 80% 3:35 Tomas HertlC 74% 3:20 Pavel DorofeyevR 52% 2:23 PP2 Rasmus AnderssonD 21% 1:05 William KarlssonC 17% 0:55 Victor OlofssonL 9% 0:36 Braeden BowmanR 9% 0:35 Trevor ConnellyL 7% 0:30 VAN2.93PP opps (range 1–5) · ~4:57 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · VGK shorthanded 2.8/gm · homeVAN expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Brock BoeserR 74% 3:20 Marco RossiC 72% 3:16 Elias PetterssonC 72% 3:16 Filip HronekD 65% 2:59 Jake DeBruskL 41% 1:56 PP2 Zeev BuiumD 31% 1:31 Tom WillanderD 25% 1:17 Linus KarlssonC 23% 1:11 Liam OhgrenL 20% 1:05 Jonathan LekkerimäkiR 17% 0:56 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
Updated Oct 4, 9:25 AM ET · model pp-1.0.0
How the forecast works
- Expected PP opportunities = league rate × the team's rate of drawing penalties × the opponent's rate of taking them, with a small home-ice edge. Each rate blends this season's games with last season's rate (pulled halfway or more back to the league average), weighted like 80 games, so a hot October does not swing the forecast.
- Expected PP time = expected opportunities × the team's seconds per power play (about 99 seconds league-wide; shrunk toward the league).
- Each player's share of team PP time comes from the last 10 games with any power play (recent games count more), from NHL shift data, pulled 15% toward a typical share because power-play hot streaks cool off. PP1 and PP2 are the five-man units with the most power-play time together in the last five games.
- Player expected PP minutes = share × team expected PP time. Only players who dressed in one of the team's last three games are listed.
- Referee crews are shown when the NHL posts them, usually close to puck drop. They are not in the forecast unless the crew effect beats the no-crew model on seasons it was not fitted on (see the referee page).
Power-play chances are mostly luck game to game: the forecasts spread only about ±0.35 opportunities around the league average, and a single game swings by ±1.5. We tested the model the honest way: for each season from 2020-21 to 2025-26 we refit it on earlier seasons only and forecast every game. Against a league-average-plus-home-ice baseline it was slightly better per game in 5 of those 6 seasons and no better in 2025-26, where it matched the baseline. Over 10-game stretches it tracked each team's actual opportunities better in 6 of 6 seasons (correlation 0.36 → 0.45 on average). The range beside each forecast held about 9 in 10 games in those seasons. Player PP minutes were tested on 2024-25, a season the player constants were not tuned on: they were off by 62 seconds per game on average (a season-average guess: 65), and players projected for 3–4 minutes averaged 3:12 (the rare 4+ minute projections ran about half a minute high). Most of the miss is how many power plays the team actually got, which no one knows before the game. Use it for weekly PPP planning and close start/sit calls, not as a lock.
Data: NHL team power-play and penalty reports since 2017-18, NHL shift charts processed by our on-ice engine, and NHL game-day officials.
FAQ
Which NHL teams will get the most power plays tonight?
The table at the top ranks every team playing tonight by expected power-play opportunities: how often the team draws penalties, how often tonight's opponent takes them, and home ice. The range beside each number held about 9 in 10 games when we tested the model on past seasons.
How many power-play minutes will a player get tonight?
Expected PP minutes are the player's recent share of his team's power-play time multiplied by the team's expected PP time tonight. A first-unit forward usually gets 55–70% of his team's PP time; second-unit players get 25–45%.
Do referees change how many power plays there are?
Somewhat, and less than people think. We track every referee crew since 2017-18 and measure how many more or fewer power plays their games had than the two teams would normally produce. The NHL referees page shows each referee's effect with an interval. Whether it repeats from one season to the next is still being tested, so crews are not part of this forecast yet.
Why is the forecast close to 3 for most teams?
Because that is the truth about power plays: the league averages about 2.9 per team per game, and even the most- and least-penalized teams sit only about half an opportunity away from it. The value is in the small, persistent edges and in knowing exactly who is on PP1.
When does this page update?
Forecasts refresh several times a day for today and tomorrow, after each night's games are processed and again as referee crews are posted.