Draw Duel

NHL faceoffs won projections today

Projected faceoffs won for every centre playing on Sunday, October 4: how many draws he should take, his expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres (adjusted for home ice and who is on his strong side), and a 10th–90th percentile range.

These are projections, not picks. A single game is noisy: most centres land anywhere in their range.

Most faceoffs won projected tonight

Every taker tonight by projected faceoffs won.
#	Player	Opp	Draws	Exp FO%	Proj FOW	10th–90th
1	Andrew CoppDET	WPG	17.1	55.8%	9.5	5–14
2	Mikael BacklundCGY	SEA	17.9	52.8%	9.5	5–14
3	J.T. MillerNYR	UTA	16.1	58.4%	9.4	5–14
4	William KarlssonVGK	VAN	16.9	54.7%	9.3	5–14
5	Jack EichelVGK	VAN	19.5	47.5%	9.3	4–14
6	Chandler StephensonSEA	CGY	16.4	54.6%	8.9	4–14
7	Elias PetterssonVAN	VGK	18.2	47.5%	8.7	4–13
8	Mika ZibanejadNYR	UTA	15.4	54.2%	8.4	4–13
9	Aatu RätyVAN	VGK	14.2	58.8%	8.3	4–13
10	Tim WasheANA	FLA	14.0	57.5%	8.1	4–12
11	Morgan FrostCGY	SEA	14.1	56.7%	8.0	4–12
12	Jonathan ToewsWPG	DET	12.5	61.0%	7.6	4–12
13	Joseph VelenoNYR	UTA	14.5	51.1%	7.4	3–12
14	J.T. CompherDET	WPG	14.3	51.0%	7.3	3–11
15	Adam LowryWPG	DET	12.9	55.6%	7.2	3–11
16	Vincent TrocheckUTA	NYR	12.6	56.2%	7.1	3–11
17	Matty BeniersSEA	CGY	13.2	50.9%	6.7	3–11
18	Mikael GranlundANA	FLA	13.2	50.3%	6.7	3–11
19	Kevin StenlundUTA	NYR	12.1	53.4%	6.5	3–10
20	Tomas HertlVGK	VAN	10.7	57.8%	6.2	3–10
21	Aleksander BarkovFLA	ANA	10.5	57.7%	6.1	3–10
22	Anton LundellFLA	ANA	11.2	54.2%	6.1	2–10
23	Frederick GaudreauSEA	CGY	12.0	48.8%	5.9	2–9
24	Lars EllerFLA	ANA	10.3	52.8%	5.5	2–9
25	Noah LabaNYR	UTA	10.3	51.4%	5.3	2–9
26	Nic DowdVGK	VAN	10.3	49.9%	5.2	2–8
27	Ryan PoehlingANA	FLA	9.8	51.1%	5.0	2–8
28	Barrett HaytonUTA	NYR	9.9	49.8%	4.9	2–8
29	Mark ScheifeleWPG	DET	9.7	50.3%	4.9	2–8
30	Leo CarlssonANA	FLA	10.8	44.9%	4.9	2–8
31	Paul CotterVAN	VGK	9.9	49.2%	4.8	2–8
32	Marco KasperDET	WPG	9.3	51.8%	4.8	2–8
33	Nick SchmaltzUTA	NYR	10.6	44.4%	4.7	2–8
34	Logan CooleyUTA	NYR	11.3	41.0%	4.6	1–8
35	Sam BennettFLA	ANA	9.4	48.9%	4.6	2–8
36	Eetu LuostarinenFLA	ANA	9.0	49.7%	4.5	1–7
37	Martin PospisilCGY	SEA	8.6	49.5%	4.3	1–7
38	Ryan StromeCGY	SEA	8.4	46.9%	4.0	1–7
39	Nate DanielsonDET	WPG	9.1	40.9%	3.7	1–7
40	Shane WrightSEA	CGY	8.2	44.9%	3.7	1–6

Game by game

Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings

1:00 PM ET

WPG: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
WPG	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Adam Lowryvs Andrew Copp: 51%	12.9	55.6%	7.2	3–11
Jonathan Toewsvs Andrew Copp: 57%	12.5	61.0%	7.6	4–12
Mark Scheifelevs Andrew Copp: 44%	9.7	50.3%	4.9	2–8
Viggo Björckvs Andrew Copp: 36%	7.1	41.2%	2.9	0–5
Vladislav Namestnikovvs Andrew Copp: 42%	5.9	46.1%	2.7	0–5
Brayden Yagervs Andrew Copp: 35%	4.9	41.0%	2.0	0–4

DET: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
DET	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Andrew Coppvs Adam Lowry: 52%	17.1	55.8%	9.5	5–14
J.T. Comphervs Adam Lowry: 46%	14.3	51.0%	7.3	3–11
Marco Kaspervs Adam Lowry: 48%	9.3	51.8%	4.8	2–8
Nate Danielsonvs Adam Lowry: 35%	9.1	40.9%	3.7	1–7
Emmitt Finnievs Adam Lowry: 42%	2.3	45.2%	1.1	0–2
Michael Rasmussenvs Adam Lowry: 47%	1.6	51.0%	0.8	0–2

Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers

6:00 PM ET

UTA: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
UTA	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Vincent Trocheckvs J.T. Miller: 50%	12.6	56.2%	7.1	3–11
Kevin Stenlundvs J.T. Miller: 47%	12.1	53.4%	6.5	3–10
Logan Cooleyvs J.T. Miller: 36%	11.3	41.0%	4.6	1–8
Nick Schmaltzvs J.T. Miller: 38%	10.6	44.4%	4.7	2–8
Barrett Haytonvs J.T. Miller: 45%	9.9	49.8%	4.9	2–8

NYR: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
NYR	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
J.T. Millervs Vincent Trocheck: 50%	16.1	58.4%	9.4	5–14
Mika Zibanejadvs Vincent Trocheck: 48%	15.4	54.2%	8.4	4–13
Joseph Velenovs Vincent Trocheck: 42%	14.5	51.1%	7.4	3–12
Noah Labavs Vincent Trocheck: 45%	10.3	51.4%	5.3	2–9
Will Cuyllevs Vincent Trocheck: 35%	1.0	42.8%	0.4	0–1

Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks

8:00 PM ET

FLA: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
FLA	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Anton Lundellvs Tim Washe: 47%	11.2	54.2%	6.1	2–10
Aleksander Barkovvs Tim Washe: 51%	10.5	57.7%	6.1	3–10
Lars Ellervs Tim Washe: 46%	10.3	52.8%	5.5	2–9
Sam Bennettvs Tim Washe: 42%	9.4	48.9%	4.6	2–8
Eetu Luostarinenvs Tim Washe: 43%	9.0	49.7%	4.5	1–7
Sam Reinhartvs Tim Washe: 35%	4.2	42.7%	1.8	0–4
Carter Verhaeghevs Tim Washe: 38%	1.5	44.7%	0.7	0–2

ANA: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
ANA	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Tim Washevs Anton Lundell: 55%	14.0	57.5%	8.1	4–12
Mikael Granlundvs Anton Lundell: 48%	13.2	50.3%	6.7	3–11
Leo Carlssonvs Anton Lundell: 42%	10.8	44.9%	4.9	2–8
Ryan Poehlingvs Anton Lundell: 49%	9.8	51.1%	5.0	2–8
Mason McTavishvs Anton Lundell: 49%	5.7	51.0%	2.9	1–5
Cutter Gauthiervs Anton Lundell: 47%	1.6	50.0%	0.8	0–2

Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken

8:00 PM ET

CGY: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
CGY	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Mikael Backlundvs Chandler Stephenson: 49%	17.9	52.8%	9.5	5–14
Morgan Frostvs Chandler Stephenson: 55%	14.1	56.7%	8.0	4–12
Martin Pospisilvs Chandler Stephenson: 47%	8.6	49.5%	4.3	1–7
Ryan Stromevs Chandler Stephenson: 42%	8.4	46.9%	4.0	1–7
Matt Coronatovs Chandler Stephenson: 41%	4.1	46.8%	1.9	0–4
Yegor Sharangovichvs Chandler Stephenson: 46%	1.2	47.9%	0.6	0–2
Joel Farabeevs Chandler Stephenson: 42%	1.1	44.4%	0.5	0–1

SEA: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
SEA	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Chandler Stephensonvs Mikael Backlund: 53%	16.4	54.6%	8.9	4–14
Matty Beniersvs Mikael Backlund: 49%	13.2	50.9%	6.7	3–11
Frederick Gaudreauvs Mikael Backlund: 46%	12.0	48.8%	5.9	2–9
Shane Wrightvs Mikael Backlund: 42%	8.2	44.9%	3.7	1–6
Berkly Cattonvs Mikael Backlund: 43%	5.1	44.8%	2.3	0–4
Ben Meyersvs Mikael Backlund: 55%	1.6	56.2%	0.9	0–2

Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks

9:00 PM ET

VGK: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
VGK	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Jack Eichelvs Elias Pettersson: 50%	19.5	47.5%	9.3	4–14
William Karlssonvs Elias Pettersson: 57%	16.9	54.7%	9.3	5–14
Tomas Hertlvs Elias Pettersson: 60%	10.7	57.8%	6.2	3–10
Nic Dowdvs Elias Pettersson: 52%	10.3	49.9%	5.2	2–8

VAN: projected draws, win rate and faceoffs won for each taker.
VAN	Draws	FO%	FOW	Range
Elias Petterssonvs Jack Eichel: 50%	18.2	47.5%	8.7	4–13
Aatu Rätyvs Jack Eichel: 61%	14.2	58.8%	8.3	4–13
Paul Cottervs Jack Eichel: 52%	9.9	49.2%	4.8	2–8
Max Sassonvs Jack Eichel: 47%	6.4	44.8%	2.9	0–5
Marco Rossivs Jack Eichel: 50%	5.8	47.5%	2.8	0–5
Linus Karlssonvs Jack Eichel: 40%	1.3	36.3%	0.5	0–1

How the projection works

Projected FOW = expected draws × expected win rate. The game's draw count comes from both teams' recent pace; each centre's share of his team's draws comes from his last ten team games, newest first. His win rate averages our matchup model against each likely opposing taker, weighted by how many draws that taker takes, over his own mix of strong-side, weak-side and centre-ice dots. Lines are not matched yet: every opposing taker is weighted by his share, not by who usually lines up against whom.

Methodology and backtest →

FAQ

How are faceoffs won projected?

Projected FOW = expected draws × expected win rate. Expected draws come from each team's recent pace and each taker's recent share of his team's draws. Expected win rate averages the model's head-to-head probability against each likely opposing taker, weighted by how often he takes draws, over his usual mix of strong-side, weak-side and centre-ice dots.

How much does the opponent change a centre's faceoffs won?

In our 2025-26 backtest, a high-volume centre's expected win rate ran from about 51% against his toughest tenth of matchups to 58% against his easiest. On 18–22 draws that is about 1.2 faceoffs won per game between the two, or roughly 4 over a three- or four-game week: enough to tip a close FW category.

Why is the range so wide?

Draw counts vary by 4–5 a game with penalties, icings and game script, and every draw is close to a coin flip. A centre projected for 11 FOW lands between about 7 and 15 in most games. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile.