Draw Duel
Jake Evans faceoff stats, 2025-26
MTL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
54.0%
90%: 52.3%–55.7% vs an average regular, on 3,445 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
55.9%
472 won of 845 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
56.4% / 53.1%
484 strong-side, 177 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.4 FOW
2026-10-06 vs CAR: 15 draws at 54.4%, range 4–13
Where Evans wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 29 | 14 | 48.3% |
| OZ right | 82 | 42 | 51.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 33 | 21 | 63.6% |
| Centre | 184 | 105 | 57.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 24 | 14 | 58.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 30 | 20 | 66.7% |
| DZ left | 110 | 60 | 54.5% |
| DZ right | 339 | 190 | 56.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R45.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L45.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R46.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L46.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R46.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L47.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L66.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L66.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L65.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L63.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L63.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 63.6% 33 | 63.6% 22 | — 0 | 63.6% 11 | 75.0% 4 | 70.0% 10 | 57.9% 19 | 61.5% 26 | 50.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 55.9% 845 | 56.0% 591 | 72.7% 11 | 54.7% 243 | 50.5% 111 | 58.2% 285 | 55.7% 449 | 56.4% 484 | 53.1% 177 |
| 2024-25 | 52.9% 1122 | 54.4% 824 | 66.7% 9 | 48.1% 289 | 56.1% 157 | 51.4% 370 | 52.9% 595 | 54.3% 674 | 50.7% 209 |
| 2023-24 | 52.2% 1137 | 54.4% 807 | 55.0% 20 | 46.1% 310 | 50.5% 194 | 51.1% 311 | 53.2% 632 | 55.1% 710 | 46.6% 236 |
| Playoffs (all) | 55.5% 308 | 55.9% 188 | 100.0% 2 | 54.2% 118 | 46.2% 39 | 62.2% 74 | 54.9% 195 | 56.7% 245 | 41.7% 24 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares | 30–31 | 49.2% | 50.9% | 50.7% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Dylan Strome | 25–30 | 45.5% | 50.9% | 50.4% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Ryan McLeod | 30–20 | 60.0% | 55.4% | 55.8% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Jake Guentzel | 31–16 | 66.0% | 60.9% | 61.4% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Jordan Staal | 18–26 | 40.9% | 48.1% | 47.5% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Tage Thompson | 23–15 | 60.5% | 61.4% | 61.3% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 20–14 | 58.8% | 55.2% | 55.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Sean Couturier | 12–22 | 35.3% | 49.8% | 48.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Josh Norris | 17–16 | 51.5% | 54.9% | 54.7% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Dylan Cozens | 17–15 | 53.1% | 53.0% | 53.0% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Sebastian Aho | 13–19 | 40.6% | 53.5% | 52.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Sean Monahan | 15–17 | 46.9% | 53.8% | 53.4% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PIT | 11 | 16 | 68.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ TOR | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-05-29 | @ CAR | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CAR | 11 | 21 | 52.4% |
| 2026-05-25 | vs CAR | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
| 2026-05-23 | @ CAR | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | @ CAR | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-18 | @ BUF | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-16 | vs BUF | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 2026-05-14 | @ BUF | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (48%), Sebastian Aho (53%)8.4 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-08 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (52%), Jack Drury (48%)8.7 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (54%), J.T. Compher (60%)8.9 FOW 4–13
FAQ
What is Jake Evans's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jake Evans's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jake Evans win tonight?
When Jake Evans has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jake Evans better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.