Draw Duel
Tage Thompson faceoff stats, 2025-26
BUF · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
45.2%
90%: 43.3%–47.1% vs an average regular, on 2,579 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.5%
390 won of 858 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
43.3% / 51.9%
529 strong-side, 129 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MIN: 10 draws at 47.6%, range 2–8
Where Thompson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 52 | 21 | 40.4% |
| OZ right | 257 | 113 | 44.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 22 | 12 | 54.5% |
| NZ right (att.) | 32 | 16 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 200 | 94 | 47.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 15 | 11 | 73.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 30 | 12 | 40.0% |
| DZ left | 40 | 23 | 57.5% |
| DZ right | 210 | 88 | 41.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R36.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R37.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R38.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L38.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L57.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L56.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L54.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R54.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 32 | 44.0% 25 | 71.4% 7 | — 0 | 37.5% 16 | 69.2% 13 | 33.3% 3 | 41.2% 17 | 50.0% 6 |
| 2025-26 | 45.5% 858 | 45.4% 721 | 49.5% 103 | 35.3% 34 | 43.4% 309 | 48.5% 299 | 44.4% 250 | 43.3% 529 | 51.9% 129 |
| 2024-25 | 42.8% 704 | 41.9% 597 | 50.5% 95 | 25.0% 12 | 42.4% 290 | 45.3% 214 | 40.5% 200 | 43.7% 407 | 39.2% 143 |
| 2023-24 | 43.3% 859 | 44.6% 709 | 41.5% 53 | 35.1% 97 | 44.7% 262 | 43.5% 294 | 41.9% 303 | 40.6% 434 | 49.3% 217 |
| Playoffs (all) | 34.9% 126 | 34.4% 96 | 44.0% 25 | 0.0% 5 | 34.0% 53 | 42.6% 47 | 23.1% 26 | 29.4% 68 | 40.0% 25 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 23–34 | 40.4% | 44.6% | 44.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Pavel Zacha | 15–28 | 34.9% | 42.2% | 41.6% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Phillip Danault | 14–28 | 33.3% | 38.3% | 37.9% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Nico Hischier | 13–28 | 31.7% | 37.5% | 37.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Jake Evans | 15–23 | 39.5% | 38.6% | 38.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Dylan Larkin | 14–21 | 40.0% | 40.5% | 40.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Christian Dvorak | 17–17 | 50.0% | 39.8% | 40.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Brock Nelson | 13–19 | 40.6% | 44.5% | 44.3% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Bo Horvat | 9–22 | 29.0% | 38.9% | 38.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Anton Lundell | 14–16 | 46.7% | 42.4% | 42.6% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Auston Matthews | 9–21 | 30.0% | 37.5% | 37.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Sidney Crosby | 10–20 | 33.3% | 39.7% | 39.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CHI | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CBJ | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MTL | 0 | 5 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-16 | @ MTL | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | vs MTL | 2 | 11 | 18.2% |
| 2026-05-12 | @ MTL | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-10 | @ MTL | 9 | 20 | 45.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | vs MTL | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | vs MTL | 1 | 8 | 12.5% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ BOS | 5 | 17 | 29.4% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (46%), Ryan Hartman (49%)4.7 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-08 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (50%), Roope Hintz (42%)4.4 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (40%), Kevin Stenlund (44%)4.6 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Tage Thompson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Tage Thompson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Tage Thompson win tonight?
When Tage Thompson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Tage Thompson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.