Draw Duel
J.T. Miller faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
57.2%
90%: 55.5%–58.9% vs an average regular, on 3,732 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
61.5%
547 won of 890 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
62.4% / 58.5%
614 strong-side, 118 weak-side draws this season
Next game
9.4 FOW
2026-10-04 vs UTA: 16 draws at 58.4%, range 5–14
Where Miller wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 309 | 190 | 61.5% |
| OZ right | 51 | 30 | 58.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 31 | 22 | 71.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 9 | 8 | 88.9% |
| Centre | 158 | 95 | 60.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 30 | 21 | 70.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| DZ left | 244 | 150 | 61.5% |
| DZ right | 50 | 25 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R48.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L48.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R49.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R50.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L50.2%
- Jack Drury NSH · L50.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L69.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L68.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L67.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L66.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R66.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L66.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 53.2% 47 | 52.5% 40 | 80.0% 5 | 0.0% 2 | 62.5% 16 | 54.5% 11 | 45.0% 20 | 56.7% 30 | 30.0% 10 |
| 2025-26 | 61.5% 890 | 62.5% 661 | 63.7% 146 | 49.4% 83 | 61.1% 360 | 64.4% 236 | 59.5% 294 | 62.4% 614 | 58.5% 118 |
| 2024-25 | 58.3% 1078 | 58.2% 823 | 58.2% 165 | 58.9% 90 | 58.4% 416 | 54.5% 323 | 61.7% 339 | 60.4% 571 | 56.0% 293 |
| 2023-24 | 56.3% 1461 | 56.3% 1033 | 62.5% 253 | 47.4% 175 | 59.7% 548 | 53.6% 403 | 54.9% 510 | 60.7% 664 | 53.2% 523 |
| Playoffs (all) | 58.6% 256 | 54.9% 215 | 71.4% 21 | 85.0% 20 | 66.3% 83 | 47.6% 84 | 61.8% 89 | 62.1% 124 | 63.2% 76 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 23–23 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 51.8% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Mikael Backlund | 21–17 | 55.3% | 58.4% | 58.2% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Bo Horvat | 18–18 | 50.0% | 55.5% | 55.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Sidney Crosby | 25–11 | 69.4% | 52.5% | 53.7% | unusual (z 2.0) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 20–14 | 58.8% | 54.2% | 54.5% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 18–16 | 52.9% | 57.9% | 57.6% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 18–14 | 56.3% | 60.5% | 60.3% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Nico Hischier | 17–14 | 54.8% | 53.9% | 53.9% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Elias Lindholm | 17–13 | 56.7% | 50.9% | 51.2% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Auston Matthews | 18–9 | 66.7% | 52.6% | 53.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Adam Fantilli | 18–9 | 66.7% | 62.6% | 62.8% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 16–10 | 61.5% | 57.0% | 57.2% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | @ DET | 6 | 18 | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs TBL | 11 | 14 | 78.6% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ BOS | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ TBL | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ FLA | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ DAL | 11 | 16 | 68.8% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs BUF | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs WSH | 13 | 17 | 76.5% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MTL | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (50%), Kevin Stenlund (53%)9.4 FOW 5–14
- 2026-10-06 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (56%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (50%)8.5 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-09 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (53%), Boone Jenner (57%)9.1 FOW 4–14
- 2026-10-11 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (64%), Aatu Räty (52%)9.4 FOW 5–14
FAQ
What is J.T. Miller's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows J.T. Miller's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will J.T. Miller win tonight?
When J.T. Miller has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is J.T. Miller better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.