Draw Duel
Auston Matthews faceoff stats, 2025-26
TOR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
57.0%
90%: 55.3%–58.6% vs an average regular, on 3,903 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
59.7%
580 won of 972 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
63.8% / 53.5%
428 strong-side, 344 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.1 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NSH: 14 draws at 58.4%, range 4–12
Where Matthews wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 247 | 160 | 64.8% |
| OZ right | 79 | 41 | 51.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 18 | 16 | 88.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 26 | 12 | 46.2% |
| Centre | 200 | 123 | 61.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 20 | 12 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 37 | 20 | 54.1% |
| DZ left | 143 | 85 | 59.4% |
| DZ right | 202 | 111 | 55.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R48.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L48.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R49.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R49.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L49.8%
- Jack Drury NSH · L50.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L68.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L68.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L67.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L66.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R65.8%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L65.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 51.2% 41 | 48.6% 37 | 75.0% 4 | — 0 | 64.3% 14 | 47.4% 19 | 37.5% 8 | 60.0% 20 | 62.5% 8 |
| 2025-26 | 59.7% 972 | 59.8% 848 | 64.9% 37 | 56.3% 87 | 61.7% 326 | 60.8% 301 | 56.8% 345 | 63.8% 428 | 53.5% 344 |
| 2024-25 | 56.8% 1223 | 58.3% 943 | 55.7% 61 | 50.7% 219 | 60.6% 391 | 55.4% 359 | 54.8% 473 | 58.4% 550 | 55.8% 432 |
| 2023-24 | 53.4% 1319 | 53.4% 1169 | 65.8% 76 | 41.9% 74 | 54.2% 456 | 53.1% 484 | 53.0% 379 | 56.1% 594 | 49.5% 392 |
| Playoffs (all) | 56.6% 348 | 56.8% 296 | 53.8% 13 | 56.4% 39 | 57.1% 126 | 52.9% 102 | 59.2% 120 | 59.6% 156 | 55.7% 122 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 44–46 | 48.9% | 51.4% | 51.0% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Shane Pinto | 57–31 | 64.8% | 56.4% | 57.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 37–50 | 42.5% | 49.4% | 48.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Nick Suzuki | 36–31 | 53.7% | 56.3% | 56.0% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 36–28 | 56.3% | 57.4% | 57.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Nico Hischier | 25–37 | 40.3% | 52.1% | 50.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Anton Lundell | 35–25 | 58.3% | 55.4% | 55.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 29–21 | 58.0% | 57.2% | 57.3% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Dylan Larkin | 24–24 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 52.7% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 27–14 | 65.9% | 54.8% | 55.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Sean Monahan | 17–22 | 43.6% | 56.9% | 56.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 17–18 | 48.6% | 52.5% | 52.3% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs OTT | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs NYI | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs MTL | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs ANA | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ MTL | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs TBL | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ NYR | 17 | 22 | 77.3% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ NJD | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-02 | vs PHI | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2026-02-28 | vs OTT | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (56%), Jack Drury (53%)8.1 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-08 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (59%), William Karlsson (56%)8.0 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-10 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (59%), Nathan MacKinnon (57%)8.3 FOW 4–13
FAQ
What is Auston Matthews's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Auston Matthews's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Auston Matthews win tonight?
When Auston Matthews has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Auston Matthews better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.