Draw Duel
Nico Hischier faceoff stats, 2025-26
NJD · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
55.0%
90%: 53.6%–56.4% vs an average regular, on 5,170 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
55.8%
1008 won of 1808 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
61.5% / 46.7%
953 strong-side, 523 weak-side draws this season
Next game
11.3 FOW
2026-10-06 vs UTA: 20 draws at 56.6%, range 6–17
Where Hischier wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 498 | 305 | 61.2% |
| OZ right | 174 | 84 | 48.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 44 | 27 | 61.4% |
| NZ right (att.) | 33 | 15 | 45.5% |
| Centre | 332 | 178 | 53.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 66 | 39 | 59.1% |
| NZ right (def.) | 32 | 14 | 43.8% |
| DZ left | 345 | 215 | 62.3% |
| DZ right | 284 | 131 | 46.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R46.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L46.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R47.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R47.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L47.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L48.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L66.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L66.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L65.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L64.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R63.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L63.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 34 | 47.8% 23 | 60.0% 10 | 0.0% 1 | 31.3% 16 | 75.0% 12 | 50.0% 6 | 47.4% 19 | 28.6% 7 |
| 2025-26 | 55.8% 1808 | 55.3% 1321 | 63.6% 291 | 46.9% 196 | 57.9% 672 | 53.8% 507 | 55.0% 629 | 61.5% 953 | 46.7% 523 |
| 2024-25 | 55.5% 1777 | 55.8% 1228 | 62.1% 282 | 47.6% 267 | 61.2% 642 | 51.5% 460 | 52.9% 675 | 63.9% 883 | 44.4% 594 |
| 2023-24 | 56.6% 1387 | 56.1% 1018 | 59.9% 289 | 51.2% 80 | 58.1% 558 | 53.8% 446 | 57.7% 383 | 61.7% 716 | 49.2% 360 |
| Playoffs (all) | 54.3% 164 | 56.5% 115 | 47.6% 21 | 50.0% 28 | 46.4% 56 | 52.9% 51 | 63.2% 57 | 59.1% 66 | 51.5% 66 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 98–86 | 53.3% | 48.9% | 50.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Sebastian Aho | 45–45 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 51.4% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Sidney Crosby | 41–33 | 55.4% | 50.0% | 50.7% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Dylan Strome | 29–42 | 40.8% | 50.8% | 49.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 28–40 | 41.2% | 48.8% | 47.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Auston Matthews | 37–25 | 59.7% | 47.9% | 49.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 30–31 | 49.2% | 48.2% | 48.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Elias Lindholm | 27–30 | 47.4% | 50.9% | 50.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Nick Suzuki | 34–20 | 63.0% | 55.7% | 56.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Anze Kopitar | 32–22 | 59.3% | 50.5% | 51.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 25–26 | 49.0% | 54.6% | 54.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Dylan Larkin | 22–28 | 44.0% | 50.6% | 50.0% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ NYI | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PHI | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ BOS | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs OTT | 13 | 23 | 56.5% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ DET | 9 | 21 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PIT | 9 | 19 | 47.4% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs PHI | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ MTL | 20 | 29 | 69.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs MTL | 22 | 31 | 71.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs WSH | 10 | 23 | 43.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (49%), Kevin Stenlund (52%)11.3 FOW 6–17
- 2026-10-10 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (61%), Aatu Räty (49%)11.2 FOW 6–16
FAQ
What is Nico Hischier's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nico Hischier's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nico Hischier win tonight?
When Nico Hischier has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nico Hischier better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.