Draw Duel
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYI · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
57.7%
90%: 56.0%–59.4% vs an average regular, on 3,426 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
59.1%
653 won of 1105 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.6% / 58.3%
652 strong-side, 264 weak-side draws this season
Next game
9.8 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NYR: 17 draws at 56.6%, range 5–15
Where Pageau wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 89 | 50 | 56.2% |
| OZ right | 201 | 118 | 58.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 25 | 15 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 30 | 16 | 53.3% |
| Centre | 189 | 117 | 61.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 36 | 22 | 61.1% |
| NZ right (def.) | 32 | 20 | 62.5% |
| DZ left | 114 | 67 | 58.8% |
| DZ right | 389 | 228 | 58.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R48.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L49.4%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R50.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L50.5%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L50.7%
- Jack Drury NSH · L50.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L69.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L69.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L68.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L66.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L66.7%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R66.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 55.2% 29 | 58.8% 17 | — 0 | 50.0% 12 | 33.3% 3 | 60.0% 10 | 56.3% 16 | 55.6% 18 | 25.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 59.1% 1105 | 58.6% 801 | 67.2% 64 | 58.8% 240 | 57.9% 290 | 60.9% 312 | 58.6% 503 | 58.6% 652 | 58.3% 264 |
| 2024-25 | 59.6% 988 | 59.6% 711 | 64.0% 114 | 56.4% 163 | 62.8% 341 | 59.7% 248 | 56.9% 399 | 60.6% 644 | 55.6% 189 |
| 2023-24 | 55.4% 1225 | 57.1% 905 | 55.2% 116 | 48.0% 204 | 56.9% 276 | 57.6% 349 | 53.5% 600 | 55.2% 717 | 54.5% 297 |
| Playoffs (all) | 55.7% 79 | 58.5% 65 | 50.0% 4 | 40.0% 10 | 73.7% 19 | 53.8% 26 | 47.1% 34 | 55.6% 54 | 55.6% 9 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | 31–30 | 50.8% | 51.8% | 51.7% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sidney Crosby | 25–21 | 54.3% | 54.3% | 54.3% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| John Tavares | 20–22 | 47.6% | 53.6% | 53.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Sebastian Aho | 23–17 | 57.5% | 56.5% | 56.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Anze Kopitar | 24–15 | 61.5% | 51.2% | 52.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Adam Fantilli | 20–14 | 58.8% | 60.4% | 60.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Morgan Frost | 14–18 | 43.8% | 55.7% | 55.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Sean Monahan | 21–9 | 70.0% | 56.5% | 57.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Sean Couturier | 15–15 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 51.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Christian Dvorak | 18–12 | 60.0% | 54.6% | 54.9% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Dylan Larkin | 20–10 | 66.7% | 54.2% | 54.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 17–13 | 56.7% | 51.0% | 51.3% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs NJD | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-09-30 | @ TOR | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CAR | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MTL | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs OTT | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs TOR | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ CAR | 12 | 24 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ BUF | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PIT | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (50%), Mika Zibanejad (58%)9.8 FOW 5–15
- 2026-10-08 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (63%), Anton Frondell (74%)11.8 FOW 6–17
- 2026-10-10 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (59%), Brayden Point (63%)10.6 FOW 6–16
FAQ
What is Jean-Gabriel Pageau's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jean-Gabriel Pageau's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jean-Gabriel Pageau win tonight?
When Jean-Gabriel Pageau has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jean-Gabriel Pageau better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.