Draw Duel
Trevor Zegras faceoff stats, 2025-26
PHI · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
38.6%
90%: 35.8%–41.4% vs an average regular, on 816 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
34.1%
131 won of 384 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
34.8% / 30.3%
184 strong-side, 119 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.5 FOW
2026-10-05 vs TBL: 8 draws at 41.9%, range 1–6
Where Zegras wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 142 | 51 | 35.9% |
| OZ right | 54 | 14 | 25.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
| NZ right (att.) | 17 | 4 | 23.5% |
| Centre | 81 | 31 | 38.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
| DZ left | 22 | 8 | 36.4% |
| DZ right | 35 | 15 | 42.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R30.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L31.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R31.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R32.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L32.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L32.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L51.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L51.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L48.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L48.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R47.8%
- Hendrix Lapierre PIT · L47.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 36.4% 33 | 32.0% 25 | 50.0% 8 | — 0 | 35.3% 17 | 44.4% 9 | 28.6% 7 | 33.3% 18 | 40.0% 10 |
| 2025-26 | 34.1% 384 | 34.6% 324 | 31.0% 58 | 50.0% 2 | 33.2% 196 | 32.8% 131 | 40.4% 57 | 34.8% 184 | 30.3% 119 |
| 2024-25 | 36.6% 186 | 36.5% 156 | 40.7% 27 | 0.0% 3 | 35.7% 84 | 35.7% 42 | 38.3% 60 | 42.3% 78 | 29.9% 87 |
| 2023-24 | 38.4% 138 | 39.8% 128 | 22.2% 9 | 0.0% 1 | 39.1% 64 | 43.6% 39 | 31.4% 35 | 37.5% 64 | 42.6% 47 |
| Playoffs (all) | 44.0% 75 | 40.9% 66 | 66.7% 9 | — 0 | 47.1% 34 | 41.4% 29 | 41.7% 12 | 37.1% 35 | 54.2% 24 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 10–14 | 41.7% | 33.1% | 33.5% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Blake Lizotte | 9–13 | 40.9% | 38.1% | 38.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Andrew Copp | 9–10 | 47.4% | 35.3% | 35.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Jordan Staal | 12–7 | 63.2% | 35.6% | 36.6% | unusual (z 2.5) |
| Noel Acciari | 4–14 | 22.2% | 34.3% | 33.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Sebastian Aho | 6–10 | 37.5% | 38.1% | 38.1% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Ben Kindel | 5–8 | 38.5% | 44.0% | 43.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Ryan McLeod | 7–6 | 53.8% | 40.9% | 41.2% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Nicolas Roy | 2–10 | 16.7% | 39.4% | 38.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Jason Dickinson | 4–7 | 36.4% | 37.9% | 37.9% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Mark Jankowski | 3–8 | 27.3% | 37.6% | 37.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| J.T. Compher | 4–6 | 40.0% | 39.6% | 39.6% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CAR | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NJD | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs PIT | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-05-09 | vs CAR | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-07 | vs CAR | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | @ CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-02 | @ CAR | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-29 | vs PIT | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | @ PIT | 1 | 7 | 14.3% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs PIT | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (41%), Brayden Point (41%)3.5 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-08 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (29%), Lars Eller (38%)3.2 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-10 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (38%), Elias Lindholm (33%)3.2 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-11 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (34%), Sebastian Aho (39%)3.4 FOW 1–6
FAQ
What is Trevor Zegras's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Trevor Zegras's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Trevor Zegras win tonight?
When Trevor Zegras has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Trevor Zegras better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.