Draw Duel
Tommy Novak faceoff stats, 2025-26
PIT · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
42.6%
90%: 40.1%–45.2% vs an average regular, on 1,307 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
42.9%
216 won of 504 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.0% / 36.2%
271 strong-side, 130 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.9 FOW
2026-10-05 vs WPG: 8 draws at 46.8%, range 1–7
Where Novak wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 169 | 86 | 50.9% |
| OZ right | 70 | 24 | 34.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 22 | 5 | 22.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 16 | 6 | 37.5% |
| Centre | 103 | 39 | 37.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 22 | 10 | 45.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 58 | 29 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 34 | 12 | 35.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R35.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L36.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L55.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L55.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L54.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L52.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L52.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R52.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 15.8% 19 | 16.7% 18 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 20.0% 5 | 22.2% 9 | 0.0% 5 | 10.0% 10 | 40.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 42.9% 504 | 42.7% 466 | 44.7% 38 | — 0 | 46.0% 239 | 37.6% 173 | 44.6% 92 | 48.0% 271 | 36.2% 130 |
| 2024-25 | 42.7% 220 | 42.9% 198 | 40.9% 22 | — 0 | 47.3% 91 | 43.9% 82 | 31.9% 47 | 47.8% 134 | 41.0% 39 |
| 2023-24 | 42.2% 500 | 40.7% 460 | 61.5% 39 | 0.0% 1 | 44.7% 215 | 42.1% 197 | 36.4% 88 | 48.0% 250 | 36.7% 150 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 64 | 50.0% 60 | 50.0% 4 | — 0 | 45.7% 35 | 58.8% 17 | 50.0% 12 | 61.3% 31 | 26.1% 23 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 14–15 | 48.3% | 39.7% | 40.1% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Noah Cates | 13–11 | 54.2% | 48.1% | 48.3% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Luke Glendening | 12–10 | 54.5% | 38.8% | 39.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Christian Dvorak | 8–12 | 40.0% | 38.6% | 38.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Cody Glass | 4–12 | 25.0% | 41.0% | 40.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Sebastian Aho | 8–8 | 50.0% | 43.3% | 43.5% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Sean Couturier | 7–6 | 53.8% | 36.4% | 36.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Adam Lowry | 5–7 | 41.7% | 43.9% | 43.8% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Tomas Hertl | 6–5 | 54.5% | 36.1% | 36.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| J.T. Compher | 6–5 | 54.5% | 44.7% | 44.9% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Marco Kasper | 4–6 | 40.0% | 45.0% | 44.9% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 3–7 | 30.0% | 35.2% | 35.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs MTL | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-09-30 | @ PHI | 2 | 13 | 15.4% |
| 2026-04-29 | @ PHI | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-27 | vs PHI | 3 | 11 | 27.3% |
| 2026-04-25 | @ PHI | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ PHI | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs PHI | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PHI | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ STL | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ WSH | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (43%), Jonathan Toews (39%)3.9 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-07 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (39%), Boone Jenner (42%)3.8 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-09 vs CBJ likely opponents: Charlie Coyle (41%), Adam Fantilli (47%)3.8 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (46%), Roope Hintz (43%)3.8 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Tommy Novak's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Tommy Novak's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Tommy Novak win tonight?
When Tommy Novak has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Tommy Novak better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.