Draw Duel
Pavel Buchnevich faceoff stats, 2025-26
STL · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
40.5%
90%: 37.4%–43.8% vs an average regular, on 684 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
39.7%
98 won of 247 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
45.0% / 32.3%
131 strong-side, 62 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.8 FOW
2026-10-06 vs CHI: 2 draws at 50.7%, range 0–2
Where Buchnevich wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 70 | 34 | 48.6% |
| OZ right | 35 | 11 | 31.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| Centre | 54 | 19 | 35.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| DZ left | 41 | 15 | 36.6% |
| DZ right | 18 | 5 | 27.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R32.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L33.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R33.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R33.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L34.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L34.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L53.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L53.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L52.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L50.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R49.8%
- Hendrix Lapierre PIT · L49.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 39.7% 247 | 39.4% 221 | 46.7% 15 | 36.4% 11 | 42.9% 105 | 39.8% 83 | 33.9% 59 | 45.0% 131 | 32.3% 62 |
| 2024-25 | 37.3% 228 | 37.0% 211 | 50.0% 10 | 28.6% 7 | 41.0% 105 | 26.2% 61 | 41.9% 62 | 46.7% 105 | 30.1% 83 |
| 2023-24 | 37.4% 206 | 37.6% 197 | 50.0% 6 | 0.0% 3 | 29.3% 75 | 39.1% 69 | 45.2% 62 | 42.7% 82 | 32.5% 80 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 5–18 | 21.7% | 33.2% | 32.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Mark Scheifele | 7–7 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 43.3% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Shane Wright | 7–6 | 53.8% | 48.7% | 48.9% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Matty Beniers | 6–6 | 50.0% | 44.8% | 44.9% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 5–7 | 41.7% | 41.2% | 41.3% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Michael Misa | 6–4 | 60.0% | 46.3% | 46.6% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Elias Lindholm | 5–5 | 50.0% | 35.6% | 35.9% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Quinton Byfield | 3–7 | 30.0% | 47.1% | 46.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 5–5 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 51.7% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Ryan McLeod | 5–4 | 55.6% | 39.3% | 39.6% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Alex Laferriere | 4–4 | 50.0% | 47.5% | 47.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 3–5 | 37.5% | 42.2% | 42.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | @ DAL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs PIT | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ CHI | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs WPG | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs COL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ COL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ LAK | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ SJS | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (44%), Anton Frondell (60%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (48%), Macklin Celebrini (46%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs CBJ likely opponents: Charlie Coyle (40%), Adam Fantilli (47%)0.7 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Pavel Buchnevich's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Pavel Buchnevich's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Pavel Buchnevich win tonight?
When Pavel Buchnevich has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Pavel Buchnevich better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.