Draw Duel
Matty Beniers faceoff stats, 2025-26
SEA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
47.2%
90%: 45.4%–48.9% vs an average regular, on 3,404 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.0%
515 won of 1072 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
51.3% / 46.6%
476 strong-side, 354 weak-side draws this season
Next game
6.7 FOW
2026-10-04 vs CGY: 13 draws at 50.9%, range 3–11
Where Beniers wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 249 | 119 | 47.8% |
| OZ right | 128 | 58 | 45.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 34 | 16 | 47.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 33 | 13 | 39.4% |
| Centre | 242 | 106 | 43.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 35 | 22 | 62.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 29 | 12 | 41.4% |
| DZ left | 158 | 87 | 55.1% |
| DZ right | 164 | 82 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L39.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 37.0% 27 | 40.0% 25 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | 33.3% 12 | 42.9% 7 | 37.5% 8 | 40.0% 15 | 22.2% 9 |
| 2025-26 | 48.0% 1072 | 47.7% 994 | 53.3% 45 | 51.5% 33 | 46.9% 377 | 45.3% 373 | 52.5% 322 | 51.3% 476 | 46.6% 354 |
| 2024-25 | 47.7% 1194 | 48.3% 1050 | 42.9% 105 | 43.6% 39 | 48.4% 386 | 44.1% 408 | 50.5% 400 | 49.8% 538 | 47.4% 378 |
| 2023-24 | 47.4% 1111 | 47.3% 945 | 51.7% 145 | 23.8% 21 | 49.8% 420 | 46.8% 342 | 45.3% 349 | 47.9% 516 | 46.7% 368 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 22–34 | 39.3% | 40.5% | 40.4% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mikael Backlund | 14–25 | 35.9% | 46.1% | 45.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Mark Scheifele | 16–21 | 43.2% | 49.8% | 49.4% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Mikael Granlund | 15–18 | 45.5% | 48.8% | 48.6% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Jordan Staal | 18–14 | 56.3% | 41.2% | 42.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Brock Nelson | 16–14 | 53.3% | 48.1% | 48.4% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Connor McDavid | 20–9 | 69.0% | 50.4% | 51.4% | a bit unusual (z 2.0) |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 14–14 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 50.2% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Adam Lowry | 14–14 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 46.8% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 14–13 | 51.9% | 49.6% | 49.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Sidney Crosby | 11–15 | 42.3% | 42.2% | 42.2% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Barrett Hayton | 14–12 | 53.8% | 45.2% | 45.7% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ EDM | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CGY | 7 | 17 | 41.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ COL | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ VGK | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs LAK | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs CGY | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs VGK | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ MIN | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ WPG | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CHI | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (49%), Morgan Frost (47%)6.7 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-06 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (50%), William Karlsson (47%)6.5 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-09 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (45%), J.T. Compher (48%)6.5 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-11 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (42%), Boone Jenner (45%)6.4 FOW 3–10
FAQ
What is Matty Beniers's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Matty Beniers's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Matty Beniers win tonight?
When Matty Beniers has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Matty Beniers better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.