Draw Duel
Barrett Hayton faceoff stats, 2025-26
UTA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.5%
90%: 48.4%–52.5% vs an average regular, on 2,252 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.6%
409 won of 777 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
54.9% / 46.2%
441 strong-side, 171 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.9 FOW
2026-10-04 vs NYR: 10 draws at 49.8%, range 2–8
Where Hayton wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 234 | 118 | 50.4% |
| OZ right | 42 | 21 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| NZ right (att.) | 22 | 9 | 40.9% |
| Centre | 165 | 88 | 53.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 18 | 11 | 61.1% |
| NZ right (def.) | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| DZ left | 175 | 103 | 58.9% |
| DZ right | 100 | 44 | 44.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.7%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 56.5% 23 | 60.0% 20 | — 0 | 33.3% 3 | 0.0% 1 | 63.6% 11 | 54.5% 11 | 53.8% 13 | 100.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 52.6% 777 | 52.4% 647 | 56.8% 111 | 36.8% 19 | 50.4% 276 | 54.4% 226 | 53.5% 275 | 54.9% 441 | 46.2% 171 |
| 2024-25 | 54.1% 1020 | 52.6% 817 | 63.3% 139 | 53.1% 64 | 56.0% 402 | 54.3% 300 | 51.6% 318 | 56.7% 594 | 48.5% 229 |
| 2023-24 | 49.8% 418 | 50.3% 318 | 50.7% 67 | 42.4% 33 | 47.3% 150 | 53.0% 117 | 49.7% 151 | 52.9% 257 | 38.6% 88 |
| Playoffs (all) | 42.9% 14 | 46.2% 13 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 33.3% 3 | 100.0% 2 | 33.3% 9 | 36.4% 11 | 50.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 16–17 | 48.5% | 45.8% | 45.9% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Robert Thomas | 15–15 | 50.0% | 49.1% | 49.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 14–13 | 51.9% | 50.9% | 51.0% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Matty Beniers | 12–14 | 46.2% | 54.8% | 54.3% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Frank Nazar | 9–15 | 37.5% | 55.7% | 54.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Mark Scheifele | 13–11 | 54.2% | 53.5% | 53.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Jordan Staal | 14–10 | 58.3% | 46.8% | 47.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 12–11 | 52.2% | 53.4% | 53.3% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 13–10 | 56.5% | 43.0% | 43.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Connor Bedard | 11–11 | 50.0% | 56.9% | 56.6% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Elias Pettersson | 10–12 | 45.5% | 55.5% | 55.0% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Phillip Danault | 13–9 | 59.1% | 50.7% | 51.1% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ CBJ | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs CHI | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-29 | @ VGK | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs EDM | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs LAK | 7 | 19 | 36.8% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs ANA | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ VGK | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ DAL | 10 | 13 | 76.9% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs PIT | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs CHI | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (45%), Mika Zibanejad (48%)4.9 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-06 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (48%), Evan Rodrigues (53%)5.3 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-08 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (51%), Elias Lindholm (45%)5.0 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (52%), Ryan McLeod (53%)5.7 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Barrett Hayton's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Barrett Hayton's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Barrett Hayton win tonight?
When Barrett Hayton has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Barrett Hayton better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.