Draw Duel
Phillip Danault faceoff stats, 2025-26
MTL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
52.5%
90%: 50.9%–54.1% vs an average regular, on 3,861 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.8%
543 won of 991 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
60.1% / 43.1%
526 strong-side, 283 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs CAR: 16 draws at 54.7%, range 4–13
Where Danault wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 182 | 112 | 61.5% |
| OZ right | 77 | 36 | 46.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 22 | 12 | 54.5% |
| NZ right (att.) | 24 | 15 | 62.5% |
| Centre | 182 | 105 | 57.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 42 | 19 | 45.2% |
| NZ right (def.) | 30 | 9 | 30.0% |
| DZ left | 280 | 173 | 61.8% |
| DZ right | 152 | 62 | 40.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R43.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R44.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L64.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 56.5% 23 | 62.5% 16 | 100.0% 2 | 20.0% 5 | 80.0% 5 | 60.0% 5 | 46.2% 13 | 58.8% 17 | 25.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 54.8% 991 | 55.9% 805 | 45.3% 53 | 51.9% 133 | 57.1% 259 | 53.3% 300 | 54.4% 432 | 60.1% 526 | 43.1% 283 |
| 2024-25 | 52.2% 1216 | 52.4% 958 | 62.0% 71 | 47.6% 187 | 53.3% 366 | 54.6% 357 | 49.7% 493 | 58.6% 527 | 44.0% 452 |
| 2023-24 | 51.9% 1157 | 52.6% 895 | 55.7% 97 | 45.5% 165 | 49.5% 333 | 55.6% 387 | 50.3% 437 | 57.1% 459 | 44.5% 452 |
| Playoffs (all) | 54.9% 474 | 55.1% 399 | 63.6% 22 | 49.1% 53 | 52.7% 93 | 53.8% 143 | 56.3% 238 | 60.5% 253 | 44.3% 140 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 33–29 | 53.2% | 46.0% | 46.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Nick Paul | 29–23 | 55.8% | 52.4% | 52.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Sebastian Aho | 34–16 | 68.0% | 52.7% | 54.1% | unusual (z 2.2) |
| Ryan McLeod | 25–22 | 53.2% | 55.8% | 55.5% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Tage Thompson | 28–14 | 66.7% | 61.7% | 62.1% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Josh Norris | 18–22 | 45.0% | 54.3% | 53.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Dylan Strome | 19–20 | 48.7% | 48.2% | 48.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Brayden Schenn | 21–17 | 55.3% | 50.9% | 51.2% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Jordan Staal | 16–20 | 44.4% | 50.0% | 49.6% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Adam Henrique | 14–21 | 40.0% | 47.0% | 46.6% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Brayden Point | 21–13 | 61.8% | 58.8% | 59.0% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Elias Lindholm | 16–17 | 48.5% | 48.8% | 48.8% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PIT | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ TOR | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-29 | @ CAR | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CAR | 12 | 19 | 63.2% |
| 2026-05-25 | vs CAR | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| 2026-05-23 | @ CAR | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | @ CAR | 10 | 19 | 52.6% |
| 2026-05-18 | @ BUF | 14 | 26 | 53.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | vs BUF | 3 | 14 | 21.4% |
| 2026-05-14 | @ BUF | 14 | 18 | 77.8% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (50%), Sebastian Aho (56%)8.7 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-08 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (53%), Jack Drury (50%)8.7 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (54%), J.T. Compher (56%)8.9 FOW 4–14
FAQ
What is Phillip Danault's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Phillip Danault's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Phillip Danault win tonight?
When Phillip Danault has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Phillip Danault better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.