Draw Duel
Nick Paul faceoff stats, 2025-26
TOR · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
51.6%
90%: 49.6%–53.7% vs an average regular, on 2,543 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
53.9%
300 won of 557 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
60.8% / 44.8%
255 strong-side, 203 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.5 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NSH: 8 draws at 53.9%, range 2–7
Where Paul wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 155 | 97 | 62.6% |
| OZ right | 50 | 21 | 42.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 25 | 9 | 36.0% |
| Centre | 99 | 54 | 54.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 15 | 9 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 17 | 7 | 41.2% |
| DZ left | 79 | 46 | 58.2% |
| DZ right | 111 | 54 | 48.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L43.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R44.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L44.5%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L44.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.8%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 44.0% 25 | 56.3% 16 | 0.0% 2 | 28.6% 7 | 50.0% 6 | 50.0% 6 | 38.5% 13 | 42.1% 19 | 50.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 53.9% 557 | 54.1% 444 | 54.5% 77 | 50.0% 36 | 57.6% 205 | 50.6% 162 | 52.6% 190 | 60.8% 255 | 44.8% 203 |
| 2024-25 | 50.0% 786 | 48.8% 666 | 53.8% 65 | 60.0% 55 | 51.2% 240 | 50.6% 247 | 48.5% 299 | 54.6% 401 | 41.2% 228 |
| 2023-24 | 54.3% 978 | 53.1% 710 | 57.3% 199 | 58.0% 69 | 55.9% 379 | 52.6% 287 | 53.8% 312 | 54.5% 605 | 52.7% 186 |
| Playoffs (all) | 54.8% 197 | 55.8% 163 | 53.6% 28 | 33.3% 6 | 51.6% 64 | 53.7% 67 | 59.1% 66 | 56.1% 98 | 50.8% 61 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Danault | 23–29 | 44.2% | 47.6% | 47.3% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Jordan Staal | 19–19 | 50.0% | 44.2% | 44.6% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Anton Lundell | 16–14 | 53.3% | 49.9% | 50.1% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Jake Evans | 13–16 | 44.8% | 46.3% | 46.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Elias Lindholm | 7–17 | 29.2% | 46.2% | 45.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Brayden Schenn | 10–14 | 41.7% | 50.1% | 49.7% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Sean Kuraly | 17–5 | 77.3% | 50.4% | 51.5% | unusual (z 2.5) |
| Nico Hischier | 10–10 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 46.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 6–14 | 30.0% | 50.2% | 49.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Nick Suzuki | 11–8 | 57.9% | 52.4% | 52.6% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 8–11 | 42.1% | 43.9% | 43.8% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Peyton Krebs | 11–7 | 61.1% | 57.1% | 57.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs OTT | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs NYI | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs MTL | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-03 | vs MTL | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ MTL | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ MTL | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-24 | @ MTL | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MTL | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MTL | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs NYR | 11 | 25 | 44.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (52%), Jack Drury (48%)4.5 FOW 2–7
- 2026-10-08 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (54%), William Karlsson (52%)4.4 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (54%), Nathan MacKinnon (52%)4.6 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Nick Paul's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nick Paul's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nick Paul win tonight?
When Nick Paul has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nick Paul better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.