Draw Duel
Sean Kuraly faceoff stats, 2025-26
BOS · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.8%
90%: 48.6%–53.0% vs an average regular, on 1,877 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.1%
338 won of 662 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
54.1% / 43.7%
386 strong-side, 126 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.0 FOW
2026-10-05 vs OTT: 8 draws at 51.3%, range 1–7
Where Kuraly wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 81 | 42 | 51.9% |
| OZ right | 31 | 11 | 35.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 23 | 11 | 47.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| Centre | 150 | 74 | 49.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 35 | 26 | 74.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
| DZ left | 247 | 130 | 52.6% |
| DZ right | 71 | 31 | 43.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 60.0% 25 | 68.2% 22 | — 0 | 0.0% 3 | 66.7% 3 | 44.4% 9 | 69.2% 13 | 70.6% 17 | 33.3% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 51.1% 662 | 52.4% 500 | 100.0% 1 | 46.6% 161 | 47.3% 112 | 53.4% 232 | 50.6% 318 | 54.1% 386 | 43.7% 126 |
| 2024-25 | 54.3% 582 | 55.3% 515 | 55.6% 9 | 44.8% 58 | 50.4% 115 | 54.0% 187 | 56.1% 280 | 58.0% 250 | 49.8% 207 |
| 2023-24 | 48.1% 565 | 49.4% 445 | 100.0% 3 | 41.9% 117 | 51.2% 84 | 47.8% 178 | 47.5% 303 | 50.4% 236 | 47.2% 214 |
| Playoffs (all) | 62.8% 43 | 59.1% 22 | 0.0% 1 | 70.0% 20 | 0.0% 3 | 69.2% 13 | 66.7% 27 | 61.3% 31 | 50.0% 4 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome | 16–12 | 57.1% | 48.7% | 49.2% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Nick Paul | 5–17 | 22.7% | 49.6% | 48.5% | unusual (z -2.5) |
| Ryan McLeod | 14–7 | 66.7% | 53.1% | 53.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| John Tavares | 9–12 | 42.9% | 44.5% | 44.4% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Nick Suzuki | 9–11 | 45.0% | 51.5% | 51.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Dylan Cozens | 6–11 | 35.3% | 51.4% | 50.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Lars Eller | 5–12 | 29.4% | 50.3% | 49.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Tage Thompson | 9–7 | 56.3% | 58.0% | 58.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 4–11 | 26.7% | 52.0% | 51.2% | a bit unusual (z -2.0) |
| Luke Glendening | 4–11 | 26.7% | 47.3% | 46.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Mark Jankowski | 9–5 | 64.3% | 49.3% | 49.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 6–7 | 46.2% | 43.9% | 43.9% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ MIN | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | @ WPG | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs NYR | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-05-01 | vs BUF | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ BUF | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs BUF | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs BUF | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | @ BUF | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-19 | @ BUF | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs NJD | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (42%), Lars Eller (52%)4.0 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-08 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (44%), Kevin Stenlund (47%)4.2 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (50%), Noel Acciari (49%)4.2 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Sean Kuraly's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sean Kuraly's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sean Kuraly win tonight?
When Sean Kuraly has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sean Kuraly better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.