Draw Duel
Ryan McLeod faceoff stats, 2025-26
BUF · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
49.5%
90%: 47.9%–51.1% vs an average regular, on 3,584 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
47.7%
612 won of 1284 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
50.7% / 44.3%
590 strong-side, 501 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MIN: 11 draws at 53.3%, range 2–9
Where McLeod wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 263 | 139 | 52.9% |
| OZ right | 99 | 41 | 41.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 38 | 12 | 31.6% |
| NZ right (att.) | 50 | 23 | 46.0% |
| Centre | 193 | 91 | 47.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 31 | 21 | 67.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 40 | 16 | 40.0% |
| DZ left | 258 | 127 | 49.2% |
| DZ right | 312 | 142 | 45.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 48.0% 25 | 50.0% 20 | 33.3% 3 | 50.0% 2 | 42.9% 7 | 60.0% 10 | 37.5% 8 | 75.0% 12 | 18.2% 11 |
| 2025-26 | 47.7% 1284 | 49.0% 896 | 47.5% 99 | 43.6% 289 | 49.7% 362 | 46.3% 352 | 47.2% 570 | 50.7% 590 | 44.3% 501 |
| 2024-25 | 52.3% 1204 | 52.9% 904 | 57.6% 59 | 49.0% 241 | 57.1% 310 | 53.1% 360 | 49.1% 534 | 58.3% 556 | 44.5% 422 |
| 2023-24 | 50.8% 718 | 51.3% 628 | 68.3% 41 | 30.6% 49 | 51.4% 220 | 50.3% 308 | 51.1% 190 | 57.0% 307 | 43.0% 221 |
| Playoffs (all) | 51.3% 353 | 53.4% 264 | 40.9% 44 | 48.9% 45 | 49.2% 120 | 51.2% 127 | 53.8% 106 | 54.1% 196 | 43.5% 92 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 39–46 | 45.9% | 50.2% | 49.5% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Elias Lindholm | 31–45 | 40.8% | 44.6% | 44.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Dylan Larkin | 21–36 | 36.8% | 44.8% | 44.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jake Evans | 20–30 | 40.0% | 44.6% | 44.2% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Dylan Strome | 22–26 | 45.8% | 45.8% | 45.8% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Phillip Danault | 22–25 | 46.8% | 44.2% | 44.5% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Pavel Zacha | 18–26 | 40.9% | 45.7% | 45.4% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Sean Couturier | 14–25 | 35.9% | 44.4% | 43.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Sebastian Aho | 23–15 | 60.5% | 46.5% | 47.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| John Tavares | 17–20 | 45.9% | 41.6% | 41.9% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Sidney Crosby | 16–20 | 44.4% | 44.1% | 44.1% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Anton Lundell | 16–18 | 47.1% | 47.2% | 47.2% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CHI | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CBJ | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MTL | 11 | 16 | 68.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | @ MTL | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2026-05-14 | vs MTL | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | @ MTL | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-05-10 | @ MTL | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | vs MTL | 4 | 15 | 26.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | vs MTL | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ BOS | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (54%), Ryan Hartman (54%)5.7 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-08 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (53%), Roope Hintz (49%)5.4 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-10 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (43%), Kevin Stenlund (46%)5.6 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Ryan McLeod's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Ryan McLeod's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Ryan McLeod win tonight?
When Ryan McLeod has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Ryan McLeod better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.