Draw Duel
Aatu Räty faceoff stats, 2025-26
VAN · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
58.2%
90%: 55.8%–60.6% vs an average regular, on 1,124 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
60.5%
470 won of 777 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
66.7% / 55.7%
327 strong-side, 345 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.3 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VGK: 14 draws at 58.8%, range 4–13
Where Räty wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 149 | 96 | 64.4% |
| OZ right | 72 | 37 | 51.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 13 | 10 | 76.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 15 | 7 | 46.7% |
| Centre | 105 | 60 | 57.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 14 | 9 | 64.3% |
| DZ left | 151 | 102 | 67.5% |
| DZ right | 244 | 139 | 57.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R49.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R50.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L51.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R51.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L51.3%
- Jack Drury NSH · L51.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L69.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L69.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L68.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L67.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R67.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L66.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 71.4% 14 | 76.9% 13 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 3 | 100.0% 2 | 55.6% 9 | 70.0% 10 | 75.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 60.5% 777 | 60.0% 620 | 69.7% 33 | 60.5% 124 | 60.2% 221 | 59.6% 161 | 61.0% 395 | 66.7% 327 | 55.7% 345 |
| 2024-25 | 57.4% 333 | 56.8% 310 | 72.7% 11 | 58.3% 12 | 59.0% 117 | 51.0% 102 | 61.4% 114 | 57.7% 137 | 60.0% 130 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 15–13 | 53.6% | 52.2% | 52.3% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 15–4 | 78.9% | 58.3% | 59.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Quinton Byfield | 11–7 | 61.1% | 62.8% | 62.8% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 10–6 | 62.5% | 57.9% | 58.1% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Morgan Frost | 9–7 | 56.3% | 53.9% | 53.9% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Ryan Hartman | 11–4 | 73.3% | 62.7% | 63.1% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 9–5 | 64.3% | 63.2% | 63.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Scott Laughton | 6–7 | 46.2% | 54.4% | 54.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 8–5 | 61.5% | 52.7% | 52.9% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Kyle MacLean | 6–7 | 46.2% | 58.1% | 57.8% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Connor McDavid | 10–3 | 76.9% | 56.5% | 57.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Jack Eichel | 4–9 | 30.8% | 60.8% | 60.0% | unusual (z -2.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CGY | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ EDM | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs LAK | 17 | 21 | 81.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ ANA | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ SJS | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ LAK | 7 | 17 | 41.2% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs VGK | 9 | 20 | 45.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs UTA | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ MIN | 11 | 14 | 78.6% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ COL | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (61%), William Karlsson (57%)8.3 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-08 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (52%), Sebastian Aho (57%)8.1 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-10 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (54%), Evan Rodrigues (61%)8.2 FOW 4–12
- 2026-10-11 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (51%), Mika Zibanejad (56%)7.8 FOW 4–12
FAQ
What is Aatu Räty's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Aatu Räty's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Aatu Räty win tonight?
When Aatu Räty has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Aatu Räty better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.