Draw Duel
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff stats, 2025-26
NSH · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
53.2%
90%: 51.7%–54.8% vs an average regular, on 4,392 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
55.1%
739 won of 1342 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.1% / 48.5%
781 strong-side, 295 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs TOR: 15 draws at 50.4%, range 3–12
Where O'Reilly wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 409 | 228 | 55.7% |
| OZ right | 88 | 44 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 40 | 24 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 15 | 10 | 66.7% |
| Centre | 266 | 142 | 53.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 62 | 37 | 59.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 20 | 9 | 45.0% |
| DZ left | 270 | 165 | 61.1% |
| DZ right | 172 | 80 | 46.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R44.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L45.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R45.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R46.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L46.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L46.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L65.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L64.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L62.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 62.9% 35 | 63.2% 19 | 80.0% 10 | 33.3% 6 | 62.5% 16 | 66.7% 6 | 61.5% 13 | 63.0% 27 | 50.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 55.1% 1342 | 55.6% 926 | 56.3% 247 | 50.3% 169 | 54.7% 497 | 55.1% 403 | 55.4% 442 | 58.1% 781 | 48.5% 295 |
| 2024-25 | 55.7% 1339 | 56.2% 983 | 55.5% 254 | 52.0% 102 | 54.8% 589 | 55.8% 398 | 57.1% 352 | 58.6% 790 | 49.8% 277 |
| 2023-24 | 53.9% 1536 | 55.0% 1084 | 56.8% 303 | 40.3% 149 | 55.8% 728 | 56.7% 383 | 48.2% 425 | 56.2% 870 | 46.3% 421 |
| Playoffs (all) | 49.3% 140 | 46.6% 103 | 65.4% 26 | 36.4% 11 | 52.7% 74 | 48.4% 31 | 42.9% 35 | 55.7% 88 | 42.9% 35 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 54–42 | 56.3% | 53.6% | 54.1% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Robert Thomas | 39–32 | 54.9% | 51.3% | 51.8% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 36–19 | 65.5% | 55.6% | 56.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Jack Eichel | 26–27 | 49.1% | 56.5% | 55.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 33–14 | 70.2% | 57.0% | 58.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Dylan Larkin | 22–22 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 52.3% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Sidney Crosby | 19–21 | 47.5% | 48.0% | 48.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 18–20 | 47.4% | 54.4% | 53.9% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Mark Scheifele | 23–14 | 62.2% | 56.4% | 56.8% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 22–14 | 61.1% | 58.0% | 58.2% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Auston Matthews | 18–17 | 51.4% | 47.5% | 47.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Nico Hischier | 20–14 | 58.8% | 50.5% | 51.1% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs DAL | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs MIN | 13 | 22 | 59.1% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs ANA | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs SJS | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs MIN | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ UTA | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ ANA | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ LAK | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ SJS | 9 | 18 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ LAK | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (48%), Auston Matthews (48%)7.7 FOW 3–12
- 2026-10-08 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (52%), Phillip Danault (54%)8.1 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (43%), Lars Eller (54%)8.1 FOW 4–12
FAQ
What is Ryan O'Reilly's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Ryan O'Reilly's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Ryan O'Reilly win tonight?
When Ryan O'Reilly has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Ryan O'Reilly better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.