Draw Duel
Ryan Hartman faceoff stats, 2025-26
MIN · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
46.8%
90%: 45.0%–48.6% vs an average regular, on 2,768 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.3%
492 won of 1085 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
44.1% / 47.4%
587 strong-side, 287 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.2 FOW
2026-10-06 vs BUF: 14 draws at 50.4%, range 3–11
Where Hartman wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 112 | 53 | 47.3% |
| OZ right | 274 | 112 | 40.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 26 | 14 | 53.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 39 | 14 | 35.9% |
| Centre | 211 | 97 | 46.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 34 | 18 | 52.9% |
| DZ left | 123 | 56 | 45.5% |
| DZ right | 240 | 115 | 47.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 58.3% 24 | 57.1% 21 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | 27.3% 11 | 77.8% 9 | 100.0% 4 | 35.7% 14 | 80.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 45.3% 1085 | 45.4% 966 | 48.0% 98 | 28.6% 21 | 42.7% 386 | 46.4% 336 | 47.1% 363 | 44.1% 587 | 47.4% 287 |
| 2024-25 | 47.8% 590 | 48.1% 520 | 44.7% 47 | 47.8% 23 | 45.0% 191 | 49.4% 180 | 48.9% 219 | 47.9% 349 | 50.7% 136 |
| 2023-24 | 47.0% 790 | 47.1% 649 | 47.1% 68 | 45.2% 73 | 49.2% 264 | 44.9% 234 | 46.6% 292 | 45.8% 487 | 54.4% 158 |
| Playoffs (all) | 48.0% 279 | 48.4% 254 | 47.6% 21 | 25.0% 4 | 39.6% 96 | 50.0% 100 | 55.4% 83 | 47.6% 145 | 46.4% 69 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 41–31 | 56.9% | 46.4% | 47.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Tomas Hertl | 22–25 | 46.8% | 41.0% | 41.5% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Brock Nelson | 21–26 | 44.7% | 46.3% | 46.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 17–16 | 51.5% | 42.3% | 42.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Matt Duchene | 16–17 | 48.5% | 45.0% | 45.3% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| William Karlsson | 18–14 | 56.3% | 42.1% | 43.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Nicolas Roy | 11–19 | 36.7% | 47.2% | 46.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jack Drury | 8–21 | 27.6% | 37.9% | 37.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Justin Hryckowian | 12–15 | 44.4% | 41.8% | 42.0% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Sean Couturier | 13–14 | 48.1% | 40.8% | 41.2% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 15–11 | 57.7% | 46.2% | 46.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Phillip Danault | 14–12 | 53.8% | 43.1% | 43.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs BOS | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NSH | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-13 | @ COL | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-11 | vs COL | 15 | 27 | 55.6% |
| 2026-05-09 | vs COL | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
| 2026-05-05 | @ COL | 9 | 21 | 42.9% |
| 2026-05-03 | @ COL | 11 | 20 | 55.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DAL | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ DAL | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs DAL | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (45%), Ryan McLeod (46%)7.2 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-08 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (46%), Brayden Point (50%)6.8 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-10 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (44%), Aleksander Barkov (41%)6.4 FOW 3–10
FAQ
What is Ryan Hartman's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Ryan Hartman's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Ryan Hartman win tonight?
When Ryan Hartman has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Ryan Hartman better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.