Draw Duel
William Karlsson faceoff stats, 2025-26
VGK · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
52.8%
90%: 50.6%–55.0% vs an average regular, on 2,264 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
57.6%
91 won of 158 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
67.1% / 49.0%
82 strong-side, 49 weak-side draws this season
Next game
9.3 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VAN: 17 draws at 54.7%, range 5–14
Where Karlsson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 35 | 24 | 68.6% |
| OZ right | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 27 | 12 | 44.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 37 | 25 | 67.6% |
| DZ right | 24 | 14 | 58.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R44.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R45.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L64.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 70.6% 34 | 68.8% 32 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 54.5% 11 | 81.8% 11 | 75.0% 12 | 92.9% 14 | 58.8% 17 |
| 2025-26 | 57.6% 158 | 58.5% 135 | 80.0% 5 | 44.4% 18 | 58.7% 46 | 49.0% 51 | 63.9% 61 | 67.1% 82 | 49.0% 49 |
| 2024-25 | 58.1% 706 | 58.6% 597 | 57.9% 57 | 51.9% 52 | 56.2% 274 | 54.8% 221 | 64.0% 211 | 63.3% 401 | 50.0% 164 |
| 2023-24 | 56.2% 973 | 56.3% 739 | 58.6% 181 | 47.2% 53 | 58.1% 408 | 52.7% 262 | 56.8% 303 | 62.5% 555 | 44.1% 247 |
| Playoffs (all) | 51.4% 393 | 52.3% 346 | 46.7% 15 | 43.8% 32 | 50.5% 109 | 42.2% 128 | 59.6% 156 | 58.3% 223 | 42.3% 97 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven | 26–21 | 55.3% | 59.5% | 59.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 28–13 | 68.3% | 50.6% | 52.0% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| Nazem Kadri | 19–19 | 50.0% | 56.9% | 56.4% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Brock Nelson | 23–15 | 60.5% | 53.1% | 53.7% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Mikael Granlund | 23–10 | 69.7% | 55.6% | 56.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 17–15 | 53.1% | 57.4% | 57.2% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Ryan Hartman | 14–18 | 43.8% | 57.9% | 57.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 14–17 | 45.2% | 54.9% | 54.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Leo Carlsson | 17–12 | 58.6% | 61.6% | 61.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Tim Washe | 11–16 | 40.7% | 48.9% | 48.4% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Connor McDavid | 15–12 | 55.6% | 57.3% | 57.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sebastian Aho | 14–13 | 51.9% | 51.3% | 51.3% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs ANA | 12 | 17 | 70.6% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs CHI | 12 | 17 | 70.6% |
| 2026-06-11 | @ CAR | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-06-09 | vs CAR | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 2026-06-06 | vs CAR | 12 | 26 | 46.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | @ CAR | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
| 2026-06-02 | @ CAR | 10 | 21 | 47.6% |
| 2026-05-26 | vs COL | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-22 | @ COL | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (57%), Aatu Räty (46%)9.3 FOW 5–14
- 2026-10-06 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (54%), Matty Beniers (56%)9.7 FOW 5–15
- 2026-10-08 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (48%), Auston Matthews (48%)8.6 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (60%), Erik Haula (55%)9.8 FOW 5–15
FAQ
What is William Karlsson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows William Karlsson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will William Karlsson win tonight?
When William Karlsson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is William Karlsson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.