Draw Duel
Mikael Backlund faceoff stats, 2025-26
CGY · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.0%
90%: 48.5%–51.6% vs an average regular, on 4,479 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.0%
720 won of 1441 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
57.0% / 44.0%
554 strong-side, 618 weak-side draws this season
Next game
9.5 FOW
2026-10-04 vs SEA: 18 draws at 52.8%, range 5–14
Where Backlund wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 181 | 101 | 55.8% |
| OZ right | 70 | 28 | 40.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 31 | 17 | 54.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 33 | 16 | 48.5% |
| Centre | 269 | 132 | 49.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 40 | 27 | 67.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 37 | 20 | 54.1% |
| DZ left | 302 | 171 | 56.6% |
| DZ right | 478 | 208 | 43.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.4%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 53.8% 39 | 63.0% 27 | — 0 | 33.3% 12 | 66.7% 6 | 75.0% 12 | 38.1% 21 | 80.0% 15 | 20.0% 15 |
| 2025-26 | 50.0% 1441 | 50.9% 1036 | 52.8% 72 | 46.5% 333 | 51.4% 251 | 51.7% 410 | 48.6% 780 | 57.0% 554 | 44.0% 618 |
| 2024-25 | 48.4% 1452 | 50.4% 1032 | 52.3% 107 | 40.6% 313 | 50.5% 333 | 48.3% 350 | 47.6% 769 | 54.8% 600 | 43.6% 615 |
| 2023-24 | 50.3% 1547 | 51.0% 1205 | 59.3% 108 | 42.3% 234 | 51.2% 363 | 50.3% 467 | 49.8% 717 | 56.3% 696 | 42.9% 529 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 32–38 | 45.7% | 42.8% | 43.1% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 24–39 | 38.1% | 45.3% | 44.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 32–31 | 50.8% | 51.1% | 51.1% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Sidney Crosby | 19–40 | 32.2% | 45.3% | 43.9% | unusual (z -2.0) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 23–35 | 39.7% | 44.9% | 44.4% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Elias Pettersson | 26–31 | 45.6% | 52.2% | 51.5% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Mark Scheifele | 24–32 | 42.9% | 53.8% | 52.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 22–30 | 42.3% | 49.4% | 48.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Tomas Hertl | 21–29 | 42.0% | 42.6% | 42.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Robert Thomas | 21–29 | 42.0% | 49.0% | 48.4% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Sean Monahan | 30–19 | 61.2% | 49.8% | 50.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Leo Carlsson | 29–20 | 59.2% | 57.0% | 57.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ VAN | 10 | 18 | 55.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs SEA | 11 | 21 | 52.4% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs LAK | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs COL | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs UTA | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ SEA | 11 | 14 | 78.6% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ COL | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ DAL | 5 | 17 | 29.4% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ ANA | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ VGK | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (49%), Matty Beniers (52%)9.5 FOW 5–14
- 2026-10-08 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (51%), Nathan MacKinnon (51%)9.5 FOW 5–14
- 2026-10-10 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (44%), Mikael Granlund (53%)9.3 FOW 4–14
FAQ
What is Mikael Backlund's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mikael Backlund's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mikael Backlund win tonight?
When Mikael Backlund has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mikael Backlund better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.