Draw Duel
Tomas Hertl faceoff stats, 2025-26
VGK · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
53.3%
90%: 51.7%–55.0% vs an average regular, on 3,642 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
57.8%
720 won of 1245 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
62.0% / 44.1%
807 strong-side, 245 weak-side draws this season
Next game
6.2 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VAN: 11 draws at 57.8%, range 3–10
Where Hertl wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 568 | 349 | 61.4% |
| OZ right | 91 | 41 | 45.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 23 | 14 | 60.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 26 | 12 | 46.2% |
| Centre | 193 | 112 | 58.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 39 | 20 | 51.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 21 | 11 | 52.4% |
| DZ left | 177 | 117 | 66.1% |
| DZ right | 107 | 44 | 41.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R44.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L45.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R45.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R46.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L46.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L46.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L65.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L64.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L62.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 52.2% 23 | 41.2% 17 | 83.3% 6 | — 0 | 50.0% 16 | 100.0% 4 | 0.0% 3 | 56.3% 16 | 20.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 57.8% 1245 | 58.1% 904 | 56.5% 306 | 62.9% 35 | 59.2% 659 | 56.0% 302 | 56.7% 284 | 62.0% 807 | 44.1% 245 |
| 2024-25 | 55.9% 958 | 54.1% 717 | 61.9% 210 | 58.1% 31 | 57.5% 510 | 56.2% 203 | 52.7% 245 | 59.1% 662 | 46.6% 178 |
| 2023-24 | 57.5% 983 | 57.0% 718 | 64.9% 188 | 44.2% 77 | 62.5% 371 | 57.1% 254 | 52.5% 358 | 68.4% 481 | 41.8% 316 |
| Playoffs (all) | 54.7% 433 | 54.5% 310 | 54.6% 119 | 75.0% 4 | 50.6% 237 | 54.1% 111 | 67.1% 85 | 57.9% 285 | 46.2% 91 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Stenlund | 39–32 | 54.9% | 49.4% | 50.1% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Jordan Staal | 28–32 | 46.7% | 53.1% | 52.4% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 35–17 | 67.3% | 58.3% | 59.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Mikael Backlund | 29–21 | 58.0% | 57.4% | 57.4% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Ryan Hartman | 25–22 | 53.2% | 59.0% | 58.5% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Adam Henrique | 18–25 | 41.9% | 51.5% | 50.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Brock Nelson | 22–20 | 52.4% | 57.5% | 57.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Anze Kopitar | 26–15 | 63.4% | 52.1% | 52.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 22–18 | 55.0% | 59.1% | 58.8% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Sebastian Aho | 18–14 | 56.3% | 55.1% | 55.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Robert Thomas | 16–15 | 51.6% | 53.3% | 53.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Jason Dickinson | 17–13 | 56.7% | 56.7% | 56.7% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs ANA | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs CHI | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-06-14 | vs CAR | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
| 2026-06-11 | @ CAR | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-06-09 | vs CAR | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-06-06 | vs CAR | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-06-04 | @ CAR | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-06-02 | @ CAR | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-05-26 | vs COL | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (60%), Aatu Räty (49%)6.2 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-06 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (58%), Matty Beniers (59%)6.4 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-08 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (50%), Auston Matthews (51%)5.7 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-10 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (63%), Erik Haula (58%)6.5 FOW 3–10
FAQ
What is Tomas Hertl's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Tomas Hertl's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Tomas Hertl win tonight?
When Tomas Hertl has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Tomas Hertl better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.