Draw Duel
Kevin Stenlund faceoff stats, 2025-26
UTA · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
53.7%
90%: 52.0%–55.4% vs an average regular, on 3,382 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.2%
618 won of 1141 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
57.5% / 47.6%
718 strong-side, 252 weak-side draws this season
Next game
6.5 FOW
2026-10-04 vs NYR: 12 draws at 53.4%, range 3–10
Where Stenlund wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 40 | 22 | 55.0% |
| OZ right | 167 | 80 | 47.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 22 | 14 | 63.6% |
| NZ right (att.) | 37 | 16 | 43.2% |
| Centre | 171 | 85 | 49.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 24 | 8 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 23 | 15 | 65.2% |
| DZ left | 166 | 76 | 45.8% |
| DZ right | 491 | 302 | 61.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R45.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L45.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R46.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L46.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R46.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L46.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L66.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L65.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L64.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L63.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L63.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 56.5% 23 | 55.6% 18 | — 0 | 60.0% 5 | 50.0% 6 | 71.4% 7 | 50.0% 10 | 46.7% 15 | 100.0% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 54.2% 1141 | 55.9% 746 | 51.0% 49 | 50.9% 346 | 49.3% 207 | 49.8% 277 | 57.5% 657 | 57.5% 718 | 47.6% 252 |
| 2024-25 | 59.1% 1054 | 58.6% 797 | 62.5% 24 | 60.5% 233 | 50.4% 238 | 60.5% 228 | 62.1% 588 | 60.5% 811 | 52.8% 106 |
| 2023-24 | 51.4% 835 | 54.4% 592 | 42.9% 14 | 44.1% 229 | 45.3% 170 | 54.1% 255 | 52.2% 410 | 51.5% 499 | 51.3% 193 |
| Playoffs (all) | 54.1% 329 | 55.9% 245 | 71.4% 7 | 46.8% 77 | 45.8% 72 | 53.5% 86 | 57.9% 171 | 56.1% 214 | 45.9% 61 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl | 32–39 | 45.1% | 50.6% | 49.9% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Roope Hintz | 27–17 | 61.4% | 53.1% | 53.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 20–23 | 46.5% | 53.7% | 53.1% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Jack Eichel | 22–20 | 52.4% | 59.7% | 59.1% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Marco Rossi | 23–10 | 69.7% | 59.7% | 60.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 16–16 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 52.6% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Robert Thomas | 12–19 | 38.7% | 50.6% | 49.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 20–11 | 64.5% | 58.5% | 58.8% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Adam Fantilli | 15–14 | 51.7% | 58.3% | 57.9% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Elias Pettersson | 16–12 | 57.1% | 58.7% | 58.6% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 15–13 | 53.6% | 56.5% | 56.3% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Dylan Larkin | 23–5 | 82.1% | 52.9% | 54.5% | unusual (z 3.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ CBJ | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs CHI | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | vs VGK | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-04-29 | @ VGK | 12 | 16 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | vs VGK | 12 | 20 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | vs VGK | 13 | 18 | 72.2% |
| 2026-04-21 | @ VGK | 9 | 20 | 45.0% |
| 2026-04-19 | @ VGK | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs STL | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs WPG | 7 | 18 | 38.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (47%), Mika Zibanejad (55%)6.5 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-06 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (48%), Evan Rodrigues (60%)6.8 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-08 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (53%), Elias Lindholm (53%)6.6 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-10 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (53%), Ryan McLeod (54%)7.3 FOW 3–11
FAQ
What is Kevin Stenlund's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Kevin Stenlund's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Kevin Stenlund win tonight?
When Kevin Stenlund has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Kevin Stenlund better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.