Draw Duel
Jordan Staal faceoff stats, 2025-26
CAR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
56.8%
90%: 55.5%–58.2% vs an average regular, on 5,199 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
55.5%
839 won of 1512 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
63.8% / 47.2%
652 strong-side, 555 weak-side draws this season
Next game
11.2 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MTL: 20 draws at 55.7%, range 6–17
Where Staal wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 367 | 230 | 62.7% |
| OZ right | 112 | 54 | 48.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 39 | 27 | 69.2% |
| NZ right (att.) | 31 | 10 | 32.3% |
| Centre | 305 | 161 | 52.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 39 | 27 | 69.2% |
| NZ right (def.) | 38 | 20 | 52.6% |
| DZ left | 207 | 132 | 63.8% |
| DZ right | 374 | 178 | 47.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R48.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L48.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R49.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R49.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L49.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L49.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L68.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L68.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L67.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L65.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R65.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L65.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 51.6% 64 | 50.0% 34 | 68.8% 16 | 35.7% 14 | 60.7% 28 | 27.8% 18 | 61.1% 18 | 60.0% 30 | 52.4% 21 |
| 2025-26 | 55.5% 1512 | 56.7% 1058 | 66.9% 175 | 43.7% 279 | 59.3% 479 | 54.2% 452 | 53.4% 581 | 63.8% 652 | 47.2% 555 |
| 2024-25 | 54.5% 1329 | 57.0% 1017 | 57.7% 26 | 45.1% 286 | 55.2% 315 | 57.9% 406 | 51.8% 608 | 58.7% 494 | 49.4% 567 |
| 2023-24 | 58.1% 1375 | 58.9% 1096 | 68.4% 57 | 51.8% 222 | 61.4% 308 | 58.0% 486 | 56.5% 581 | 64.1% 510 | 52.8% 506 |
| Playoffs (all) | 55.5% 919 | 55.7% 644 | 65.3% 72 | 51.2% 203 | 58.6% 237 | 56.0% 273 | 53.3% 409 | 59.6% 361 | 52.8% 369 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | 86–98 | 46.7% | 51.1% | 49.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Dylan Strome | 64–47 | 57.7% | 51.7% | 52.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Sean Couturier | 32–53 | 37.6% | 50.9% | 49.0% | unusual (z -2.5) |
| Nick Suzuki | 48–34 | 58.5% | 57.6% | 57.8% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Jack Eichel | 51–28 | 64.6% | 60.1% | 60.7% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 34–39 | 46.6% | 48.7% | 48.4% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Adam Fantilli | 39–26 | 60.0% | 58.9% | 59.0% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Brady Tkachuk | 25–39 | 39.1% | 50.9% | 49.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Tomas Hertl | 32–28 | 53.3% | 46.9% | 47.6% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Dylan Larkin | 30–29 | 50.8% | 53.4% | 53.1% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Sam Bennett | 34–18 | 65.4% | 59.4% | 60.0% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Bo Horvat | 18–32 | 36.0% | 50.8% | 49.4% | unusual (z -2.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PHI | 11 | 21 | 52.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | vs WSH | 11 | 21 | 52.4% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs FLA | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| 2026-06-14 | @ VGK | 14 | 22 | 63.6% |
| 2026-06-11 | vs VGK | 14 | 19 | 73.7% |
| 2026-06-09 | @ VGK | 12 | 16 | 75.0% |
| 2026-06-06 | @ VGK | 18 | 27 | 66.7% |
| 2026-06-04 | vs VGK | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | vs VGK | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2026-05-29 | vs MTL | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (56%), Phillip Danault (55%)11.2 FOW 6–17
- 2026-10-08 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (62%), Aatu Räty (50%)11.8 FOW 6–17
- 2026-10-10 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (60%), Anton Frondell (73%)13.0 FOW 7–19
- 2026-10-11 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (53%), Noel Acciari (54%)11.7 FOW 6–17
FAQ
What is Jordan Staal's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jordan Staal's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jordan Staal win tonight?
When Jordan Staal has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jordan Staal better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.