Draw Duel
Aleksander Barkov faceoff stats, 2024-25
FLA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
54.9%
90%: 52.8%–57.1% vs an average regular, on 3,011 draws since 2023-24
2024-25 FO%
56.5%
580 won of 1026 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
59.7% / 50.3%
652 strong-side, 155 weak-side draws this season
Next game
6.1 FOW
2026-10-04 vs ANA: 11 draws at 57.7%, range 3–10
Where Barkov wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 422 | 255 | 60.4% |
| OZ right | 35 | 18 | 51.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 36 | 17 | 47.2% |
| NZ right (att.) | 46 | 22 | 47.8% |
| Centre | 219 | 113 | 51.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 38 | 23 | 60.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 32 | 17 | 53.1% |
| DZ left | 156 | 94 | 60.3% |
| DZ right | 42 | 21 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R46.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L46.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R47.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R47.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L47.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L48.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L67.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L66.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L65.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L64.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R63.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L63.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 53.8% 26 | 56.3% 16 | 42.9% 7 | 66.7% 3 | 45.5% 11 | 66.7% 9 | 50.0% 6 | 46.7% 15 | 75.0% 4 |
| 2024-25 | 56.5% 1026 | 55.5% 704 | 62.3% 247 | 46.7% 75 | 59.7% 457 | 51.8% 371 | 58.1% 198 | 59.7% 652 | 50.3% 155 |
| 2023-24 | 57.3% 1100 | 56.9% 740 | 63.3% 256 | 45.2% 104 | 62.0% 450 | 53.4% 382 | 54.9% 268 | 60.7% 718 | 49.3% 140 |
| Playoffs (all) | 56.8% 859 | 56.7% 566 | 59.8% 174 | 52.9% 119 | 59.9% 307 | 52.4% 286 | 57.9% 266 | 60.2% 502 | 52.8% 176 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 63–49 | 56.3% | 50.2% | 51.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 58–41 | 58.6% | 51.0% | 52.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Jordan Staal | 48–43 | 52.7% | 51.5% | 51.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Charlie Coyle | 49–30 | 62.0% | 54.7% | 55.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 36–42 | 46.2% | 53.2% | 52.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 35–37 | 48.6% | 47.6% | 47.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Nick Suzuki | 34–34 | 50.0% | 55.2% | 54.5% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Connor McDavid | 41–26 | 61.2% | 58.2% | 58.5% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| John Tavares | 38–27 | 58.5% | 49.9% | 50.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 40–22 | 64.5% | 55.2% | 56.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Brayden Point | 43–16 | 72.9% | 59.2% | 60.7% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Nico Hischier | 30–28 | 51.7% | 50.8% | 50.9% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ SJS | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ CAR | 11 | 20 | 55.0% |
| 2025-06-17 | vs EDM | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2025-06-14 | @ EDM | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2025-06-12 | vs EDM | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| 2025-06-09 | vs EDM | 12 | 21 | 57.1% |
| 2025-06-06 | @ EDM | 24 | 43 | 55.8% |
| 2025-06-04 | @ EDM | 16 | 25 | 64.0% |
| 2025-05-28 | @ CAR | 18 | 29 | 62.1% |
| 2025-05-26 | vs CAR | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (51%), Mikael Granlund (58%)6.1 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-06 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (61%), Erik Haula (57%)6.2 FOW 3–10
- 2026-10-10 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (60%), Ryan Hartman (60%)6.3 FOW 3–10
FAQ
What is Aleksander Barkov's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Aleksander Barkov's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Aleksander Barkov win tonight?
When Aleksander Barkov has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Aleksander Barkov better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.