Draw Duel
Charlie Coyle faceoff stats, 2025-26
CBJ · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
52.3%
90%: 50.6%–53.9% vs an average regular, on 3,841 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.7%
626 won of 1234 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.4% / 55.1%
733 strong-side, 256 weak-side draws this season
Next game
10.5 FOW
2026-10-09 vs PIT: 19 draws at 54.4%, range 5–16
Where Coyle wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 88 | 50 | 56.8% |
| OZ right | 194 | 92 | 47.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 22 | 11 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 29 | 16 | 55.2% |
| Centre | 245 | 130 | 53.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 26 | 12 | 46.2% |
| NZ right (def.) | 32 | 15 | 46.9% |
| DZ left | 120 | 68 | 56.7% |
| DZ right | 478 | 232 | 48.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R43.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R44.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L64.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 57.6% 33 | 56.0% 25 | 100.0% 1 | 57.1% 7 | 40.0% 5 | 40.0% 10 | 72.2% 18 | 73.3% 15 | 66.7% 12 |
| 2025-26 | 50.7% 1234 | 52.5% 952 | 47.2% 72 | 43.8% 210 | 50.4% 282 | 52.0% 354 | 50.2% 598 | 48.4% 733 | 55.1% 256 |
| 2024-25 | 48.6% 769 | 49.5% 576 | 54.2% 48 | 43.4% 145 | 42.8% 201 | 50.2% 201 | 51.0% 367 | 45.2% 465 | 55.7% 176 |
| 2023-24 | 51.6% 1477 | 53.0% 1046 | 57.6% 144 | 43.6% 287 | 50.9% 411 | 51.2% 391 | 52.3% 675 | 50.3% 976 | 55.8% 226 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.3% 328 | 52.1% 215 | 54.3% 35 | 43.6% 78 | 55.8% 86 | 51.4% 70 | 47.1% 172 | 47.1% 223 | 66.1% 62 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 19–34 | 35.8% | 45.6% | 44.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Sidney Crosby | 23–29 | 44.2% | 47.3% | 47.0% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| John Tavares | 21–29 | 42.0% | 46.1% | 45.8% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Roope Hintz | 25–19 | 56.8% | 48.0% | 48.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Brayden Schenn | 20–20 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Nick Suzuki | 13–26 | 33.3% | 51.9% | 50.5% | unusual (z -2.3) |
| Sam Bennett | 18–20 | 47.4% | 53.9% | 53.5% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Dylan Larkin | 18–15 | 54.5% | 47.7% | 48.1% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Nico Hischier | 19–14 | 57.6% | 42.9% | 43.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Sebastian Aho | 14–18 | 43.8% | 50.3% | 49.9% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Anze Kopitar | 12–20 | 37.5% | 44.4% | 44.0% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Christian Dvorak | 15–15 | 50.0% | 47.8% | 47.9% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs UTA | 11 | 16 | 68.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs BUF | 8 | 17 | 47.1% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs WSH | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs BOS | 12 | 18 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ MTL | 13 | 19 | 68.4% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ BUF | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ DET | 12 | 22 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs WPG | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ CAR | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CAR | 4 | 16 | 25.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-09 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (47%), Ben Kindel (61%)10.5 FOW 5–16
- 2026-10-10 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (50%), Mason McTavish (52%)10.3 FOW 5–15
FAQ
What is Charlie Coyle's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Charlie Coyle's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Charlie Coyle win tonight?
When Charlie Coyle has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Charlie Coyle better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.