Draw Duel
Sam Bennett faceoff stats, 2025-26
FLA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
45.4%
90%: 43.7%–47.2% vs an average regular, on 3,287 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
47.6%
517 won of 1087 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
52.3% / 39.3%
593 strong-side, 262 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.6 FOW
2026-10-04 vs ANA: 9 draws at 48.9%, range 2–8
Where Bennett wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 361 | 185 | 51.2% |
| OZ right | 80 | 27 | 33.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 49 | 25 | 51.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 39 | 15 | 38.5% |
| Centre | 232 | 104 | 44.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 37 | 18 | 48.6% |
| NZ right (def.) | 26 | 11 | 42.3% |
| DZ left | 146 | 82 | 56.2% |
| DZ right | 117 | 50 | 42.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R36.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R37.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R38.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L38.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L56.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L54.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R54.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 18 | 50.0% 18 | — 0 | — 0 | 60.0% 5 | 25.0% 8 | 80.0% 5 | 44.4% 9 | 66.7% 6 |
| 2025-26 | 47.6% 1087 | 46.3% 871 | 54.2% 168 | 47.9% 48 | 48.1% 441 | 45.2% 383 | 50.2% 263 | 52.3% 593 | 39.3% 262 |
| 2024-25 | 46.2% 973 | 46.5% 909 | 43.1% 51 | 38.5% 13 | 43.7% 382 | 52.0% 356 | 41.7% 235 | 49.4% 500 | 35.9% 256 |
| 2023-24 | 45.5% 858 | 44.7% 772 | 56.9% 58 | 42.9% 28 | 47.3% 336 | 41.5% 299 | 48.0% 223 | 51.2% 408 | 39.0% 259 |
| Playoffs (all) | 42.7% 351 | 44.6% 323 | 21.7% 23 | 20.0% 5 | 43.8% 153 | 43.0% 121 | 40.3% 77 | 50.0% 218 | 22.1% 68 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 18–34 | 34.6% | 40.6% | 40.0% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Sebastian Aho | 24–27 | 47.1% | 46.5% | 46.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| John Tavares | 15–28 | 34.9% | 39.4% | 39.0% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Scott Laughton | 13–28 | 31.7% | 42.5% | 41.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 24–16 | 60.0% | 49.3% | 50.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Adam Henrique | 16–22 | 42.1% | 44.5% | 44.3% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Charlie Coyle | 20–18 | 52.6% | 46.1% | 46.5% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Brock Nelson | 14–23 | 37.8% | 47.3% | 46.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Elias Lindholm | 20–14 | 58.8% | 40.8% | 41.9% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Adam Lowry | 12–21 | 36.4% | 46.6% | 46.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Nick Suzuki | 15–16 | 48.4% | 46.2% | 46.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Ryan McLeod | 13–17 | 43.3% | 46.3% | 46.2% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ SJS | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ CAR | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ OTT | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ MTL | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ PIT | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ PIT | 5 | 16 | 31.3% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs BOS | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs OTT | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs MIN | 7 | 18 | 38.9% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs SEA | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (42%), Mikael Granlund (49%)4.6 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-06 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (53%), Erik Haula (48%)4.7 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (51%), Ryan Hartman (50%)4.8 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Sam Bennett's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sam Bennett's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sam Bennett win tonight?
When Sam Bennett has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sam Bennett better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.