Draw Duel
Anthony Cirelli faceoff stats, 2025-26
TBL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.8%
90%: 47.1%–50.4% vs an average regular, on 3,613 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.2%
518 won of 1075 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
55.4% / 38.7%
522 strong-side, 375 weak-side draws this season
Next game
12.9 FOW
2026-10-05 vs PHI: 25 draws at 51.7%, range 7–19
Where Cirelli wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 271 | 156 | 57.6% |
| OZ right | 89 | 34 | 38.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 25 | 18 | 72.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 21 | 10 | 47.6% |
| Centre | 178 | 84 | 47.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 42 | 26 | 61.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 30 | 9 | 30.0% |
| DZ left | 184 | 89 | 48.4% |
| DZ right | 235 | 92 | 39.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 53.3% 30 | 47.4% 19 | 71.4% 7 | 50.0% 4 | 60.0% 10 | 62.5% 8 | 41.7% 12 | 71.4% 14 | 36.4% 11 |
| 2025-26 | 48.2% 1075 | 49.3% 736 | 69.1% 94 | 36.7% 245 | 52.8% 360 | 49.7% 296 | 43.2% 419 | 55.4% 522 | 38.7% 375 |
| 2024-25 | 50.1% 1292 | 49.9% 1052 | 54.9% 82 | 48.7% 158 | 49.1% 383 | 51.5% 441 | 49.6% 468 | 51.9% 724 | 41.2% 289 |
| 2023-24 | 49.2% 935 | 50.9% 709 | 43.4% 76 | 44.0% 150 | 46.5% 258 | 51.6% 372 | 48.5% 305 | 53.9% 534 | 34.0% 144 |
| Playoffs (all) | 49.1% 281 | 48.2% 197 | 43.8% 32 | 55.8% 52 | 40.2% 92 | 47.4% 76 | 57.5% 113 | 51.2% 168 | 38.1% 63 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 71–77 | 48.0% | 49.6% | 49.2% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Elias Lindholm | 23–40 | 36.5% | 44.4% | 43.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Dylan Larkin | 17–36 | 32.1% | 45.8% | 44.5% | unusual (z -2.0) |
| Sidney Crosby | 21–31 | 40.4% | 43.1% | 42.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Nico Hischier | 26–25 | 51.0% | 45.4% | 45.9% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Auston Matthews | 21–29 | 42.0% | 42.8% | 42.7% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Dylan Strome | 23–20 | 53.5% | 46.9% | 47.4% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Sam Bennett | 16–24 | 40.0% | 50.7% | 50.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| J.T. Compher | 20–16 | 55.6% | 51.6% | 51.9% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Sean Couturier | 15–21 | 41.7% | 47.4% | 47.0% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 15–21 | 41.7% | 44.7% | 44.5% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Anze Kopitar | 19–16 | 54.3% | 44.3% | 44.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs WSH | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NYR | 9 | 20 | 45.0% |
| 2026-05-03 | vs MTL | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ MTL | 12 | 22 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MTL | 9 | 18 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ MTL | 12 | 29 | 41.4% |
| 2026-04-24 | @ MTL | 14 | 23 | 60.9% |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MTL | 19 | 31 | 61.3% |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MTL | 8 | 19 | 42.1% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs DET | 4 | 15 | 26.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (48%), Noel Acciari (48%)12.9 FOW 7–19
- 2026-10-08 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (54%), Ryan Hartman (54%)13.3 FOW 7–19
- 2026-10-10 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (46%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (41%)11.3 FOW 6–17
FAQ
What is Anthony Cirelli's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Anthony Cirelli's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Anthony Cirelli win tonight?
When Anthony Cirelli has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Anthony Cirelli better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.