Draw Duel
Vincent Trocheck faceoff stats, 2025-26
UTA · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
57.2%
90%: 55.6%–58.8% vs an average regular, on 4,498 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
56.9%
625 won of 1099 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.2% / 54.9%
591 strong-side, 339 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.1 FOW
2026-10-04 vs NYR: 13 draws at 56.2%, range 3–11
Where Trocheck wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 129 | 72 | 55.8% |
| OZ right | 276 | 180 | 65.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 28 | 15 | 53.6% |
| NZ right (att.) | 45 | 25 | 55.6% |
| Centre | 169 | 95 | 56.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
| NZ right (def.) | 24 | 11 | 45.8% |
| DZ left | 163 | 89 | 54.6% |
| DZ right | 246 | 128 | 52.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R48.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L48.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R49.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L50.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L50.2%
- Jack Drury NSH · L50.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L69.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L69.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L68.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L66.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L66.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R65.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 54.8% 31 | 53.6% 28 | 100.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 58.8% 17 | 0.0% 3 | 63.6% 11 | 62.5% 24 | 28.6% 7 |
| 2025-26 | 56.9% 1099 | 57.7% 742 | 65.2% 181 | 44.9% 176 | 62.2% 405 | 54.7% 285 | 53.1% 409 | 58.2% 591 | 54.9% 339 |
| 2024-25 | 59.3% 1534 | 59.6% 1032 | 62.1% 253 | 55.4% 249 | 61.0% 630 | 59.1% 379 | 57.5% 525 | 61.1% 831 | 57.1% 475 |
| 2023-24 | 58.7% 1500 | 57.6% 1061 | 65.1% 338 | 49.5% 101 | 58.9% 703 | 58.8% 354 | 58.5% 443 | 61.9% 924 | 52.1% 353 |
| Playoffs (all) | 57.8% 334 | 56.4% 220 | 59.4% 64 | 62.0% 50 | 56.0% 150 | 55.9% 68 | 61.2% 116 | 58.0% 212 | 59.5% 79 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | 40–28 | 58.8% | 51.2% | 52.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Sebastian Aho | 31–27 | 53.4% | 56.1% | 55.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Adam Fantilli | 19–25 | 43.2% | 60.1% | 58.8% | unusual (z -2.3) |
| John Tavares | 22–19 | 53.7% | 52.0% | 52.2% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Christian Dvorak | 21–17 | 55.3% | 54.1% | 54.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Dylan Larkin | 18–20 | 47.4% | 54.4% | 53.9% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Dylan Strome | 13–24 | 35.1% | 52.8% | 51.5% | unusual (z -2.1) |
| Jordan Staal | 17–20 | 45.9% | 49.9% | 49.6% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Sean Couturier | 20–16 | 55.6% | 51.7% | 52.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Bo Horvat | 19–16 | 54.3% | 52.1% | 52.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 27–8 | 77.1% | 57.9% | 59.2% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| Nic Dowd | 20–15 | 57.1% | 58.1% | 58.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ CBJ | 6 | 17 | 35.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs CHI | 11 | 14 | 78.6% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ TBL | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ FLA | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ DAL | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs BUF | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs WSH | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MTL | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NJD | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (50%), Mika Zibanejad (57%)7.1 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-06 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (51%), Evan Rodrigues (62%)7.4 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-08 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (56%), Elias Lindholm (56%)7.3 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-10 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (56%), Ryan McLeod (57%)8.0 FOW 4–12
FAQ
What is Vincent Trocheck's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Vincent Trocheck's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Vincent Trocheck win tonight?
When Vincent Trocheck has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Vincent Trocheck better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.