Draw Duel
Nic Dowd faceoff stats, 2025-26
VGK · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
49.7%
90%: 48.0%–51.3% vs an average regular, on 3,680 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
49.2%
476 won of 968 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.6% / 49.1%
488 strong-side, 275 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.2 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VAN: 10 draws at 49.9%, range 2–8
Where Dowd wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 45 | 22 | 48.9% |
| OZ right | 80 | 41 | 51.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 27 | 13 | 48.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 20 | 7 | 35.0% |
| Centre | 205 | 104 | 50.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 29 | 13 | 44.8% |
| NZ right (def.) | 29 | 9 | 31.0% |
| DZ left | 174 | 87 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 359 | 180 | 50.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 42.9% 21 | 43.8% 16 | — 0 | 40.0% 5 | 60.0% 5 | 40.0% 10 | 33.3% 6 | 54.5% 11 | 50.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 49.2% 968 | 51.4% 732 | 25.0% 4 | 42.7% 232 | 50.4% 125 | 47.1% 310 | 50.1% 533 | 48.6% 488 | 49.1% 275 |
| 2024-25 | 49.9% 1195 | 52.2% 835 | 60.0% 10 | 44.0% 350 | 47.8% 92 | 54.9% 350 | 47.8% 753 | 51.8% 579 | 44.0% 386 |
| 2023-24 | 48.1% 1024 | 49.2% 778 | 58.3% 12 | 44.0% 234 | 50.0% 66 | 52.8% 246 | 46.3% 712 | 47.7% 512 | 45.2% 352 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.2% 472 | 52.6% 352 | 100.0% 1 | 42.9% 119 | 54.8% 42 | 52.4% 145 | 48.4% 285 | 51.7% 236 | 43.3% 141 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 23–36 | 39.0% | 46.4% | 45.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Sebastian Aho | 27–26 | 50.9% | 48.2% | 48.5% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Nick Schmaltz | 29–14 | 67.4% | 53.2% | 54.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Nico Hischier | 14–28 | 33.3% | 43.7% | 42.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 25–15 | 62.5% | 51.0% | 51.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Jordan Staal | 14–26 | 35.0% | 43.1% | 42.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Mark Jankowski | 15–23 | 39.5% | 49.4% | 48.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 15–20 | 42.9% | 41.9% | 42.0% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Sean Monahan | 14–19 | 42.4% | 48.7% | 48.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Logan Cooley | 16–14 | 53.3% | 58.7% | 58.4% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Mikael Granlund | 13–17 | 43.3% | 52.9% | 52.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 15–15 | 50.0% | 45.9% | 46.2% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs ANA | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs CHI | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-06-14 | vs CAR | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-06-11 | @ CAR | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-06-09 | vs CAR | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-06-06 | vs CAR | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-06-04 | @ CAR | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| 2026-06-02 | @ CAR | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-26 | vs COL | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (52%), Aatu Räty (41%)5.2 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-06 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (47%), Matty Beniers (53%)5.5 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-08 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (45%), Auston Matthews (43%)4.9 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (55%), Erik Haula (50%)5.5 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Nic Dowd's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nic Dowd's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nic Dowd win tonight?
When Nic Dowd has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nic Dowd better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.