Draw Duel
Nick Schmaltz faceoff stats, 2025-26
UTA · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
45.8%
90%: 43.8%–47.9% vs an average regular, on 1,862 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
46.0%
448 won of 974 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
46.5% / 48.1%
602 strong-side, 187 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.7 FOW
2026-10-04 vs NYR: 11 draws at 44.4%, range 2–8
Where Schmaltz wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 88 | 43 | 48.9% |
| OZ right | 375 | 169 | 45.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 30 | 15 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 56 | 33 | 58.9% |
| Centre | 185 | 78 | 42.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 24 | 10 | 41.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 34 | 14 | 41.2% |
| DZ left | 45 | 22 | 48.9% |
| DZ right | 137 | 64 | 46.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R37.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R38.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R38.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L57.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L55.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 66.7% 9 | 50.0% 2 | 80.0% 5 | 50.0% 2 | 60.0% 5 | 75.0% 4 | — 0 | 60.0% 5 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 46.0% 974 | 45.8% 816 | 47.7% 128 | 43.3% 30 | 45.8% 463 | 45.6% 329 | 47.3% 182 | 46.5% 602 | 48.1% 187 |
| 2024-25 | 49.2% 376 | 48.1% 268 | 50.5% 91 | 58.8% 17 | 49.3% 219 | 45.0% 80 | 53.2% 77 | 47.1% 263 | 57.1% 84 |
| 2023-24 | 41.0% 400 | 38.5% 309 | 53.2% 79 | 25.0% 12 | 41.3% 172 | 38.8% 121 | 43.0% 107 | 43.4% 288 | 32.7% 49 |
| Playoffs (all) | 45.6% 103 | 46.2% 91 | 45.5% 11 | 0.0% 1 | 45.0% 40 | 48.9% 45 | 38.9% 18 | 50.0% 46 | 44.0% 25 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd | 14–29 | 32.6% | 46.8% | 45.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Jack Eichel | 22–18 | 55.0% | 47.8% | 48.4% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 16–13 | 55.2% | 42.7% | 43.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Mikael Backlund | 11–17 | 39.3% | 44.0% | 43.7% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Michael McCarron | 11–17 | 39.3% | 43.7% | 43.4% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Connor McDavid | 9–17 | 34.6% | 46.0% | 45.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Sebastian Aho | 13–12 | 52.0% | 44.0% | 44.4% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 10–15 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Robert Thomas | 14–10 | 58.3% | 42.6% | 43.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Brock Nelson | 8–15 | 34.8% | 45.7% | 45.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Anton Lundell | 9–13 | 40.9% | 43.8% | 43.7% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 9–11 | 45.0% | 46.1% | 46.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ CBJ | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs CHI | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | vs VGK | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | @ VGK | 6 | 19 | 31.6% |
| 2026-04-27 | vs VGK | 14 | 23 | 60.9% |
| 2026-04-24 | vs VGK | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-21 | @ VGK | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| 2026-04-19 | @ VGK | 7 | 19 | 36.8% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs STL | 11 | 26 | 42.3% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs WPG | 3 | 12 | 25.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (38%), Mika Zibanejad (45%)4.7 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-06 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (39%), Evan Rodrigues (51%)5.0 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-08 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (44%), Elias Lindholm (44%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (44%), Ryan McLeod (45%)5.4 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Nick Schmaltz's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nick Schmaltz's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nick Schmaltz win tonight?
When Nick Schmaltz has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nick Schmaltz better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.