Draw Duel
Sebastian Aho faceoff stats, 2025-26
CAR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
51.3%
90%: 49.7%–52.8% vs an average regular, on 4,189 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.5%
596 won of 1181 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
56.8% / 43.8%
593 strong-side, 393 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.0 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MTL: 14 draws at 50.4%, range 3–11
Where Aho wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 398 | 230 | 57.8% |
| OZ right | 131 | 58 | 44.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 41 | 25 | 61.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 40 | 23 | 57.5% |
| Centre | 195 | 87 | 44.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 32 | 21 | 65.6% |
| NZ right (def.) | 49 | 24 | 49.0% |
| DZ left | 122 | 61 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 173 | 67 | 38.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L43.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R44.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L44.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L44.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 64.3% 42 | 61.8% 34 | 71.4% 7 | 100.0% 1 | 56.3% 16 | 61.5% 13 | 76.9% 13 | 63.2% 19 | 64.7% 17 |
| 2025-26 | 50.5% 1181 | 50.4% 959 | 53.8% 156 | 43.9% 66 | 54.4% 529 | 50.4% 357 | 43.4% 295 | 56.8% 593 | 43.8% 393 |
| 2024-25 | 55.3% 1198 | 54.5% 870 | 62.4% 266 | 37.1% 62 | 58.7% 595 | 53.5% 310 | 50.5% 293 | 58.5% 653 | 49.7% 360 |
| 2023-24 | 54.1% 1055 | 51.2% 785 | 63.8% 213 | 57.9% 57 | 55.2% 525 | 50.9% 273 | 55.3% 257 | 56.9% 622 | 49.3% 282 |
| Playoffs (all) | 49.5% 713 | 49.5% 539 | 50.0% 130 | 47.7% 44 | 53.3% 317 | 45.9% 196 | 47.0% 200 | 54.3% 394 | 42.7% 218 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | 45–45 | 50.0% | 48.3% | 48.6% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Jack Eichel | 33–32 | 50.8% | 54.9% | 54.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 27–31 | 46.6% | 43.9% | 44.1% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Nick Suzuki | 32–22 | 59.3% | 50.7% | 51.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Nic Dowd | 26–27 | 49.1% | 51.8% | 51.5% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 28–23 | 54.9% | 52.1% | 52.3% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Sam Bennett | 27–24 | 52.9% | 53.5% | 53.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 18–32 | 36.0% | 46.7% | 45.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Sean Monahan | 29–21 | 58.0% | 51.2% | 51.8% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Phillip Danault | 16–34 | 32.0% | 47.3% | 45.9% | unusual (z -2.2) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 24–25 | 49.0% | 49.5% | 49.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Sidney Crosby | 20–27 | 42.6% | 46.3% | 46.0% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PHI | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | vs WSH | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs FLA | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
| 2026-06-14 | @ VGK | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| 2026-06-11 | vs VGK | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-06-09 | @ VGK | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
| 2026-06-06 | @ VGK | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
| 2026-06-04 | vs VGK | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-06-02 | vs VGK | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-05-29 | vs MTL | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (50%), Phillip Danault (50%)7.0 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-08 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (57%), Aatu Räty (45%)7.4 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-10 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (55%), Anton Frondell (68%)8.3 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-11 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (48%), Noel Acciari (49%)7.3 FOW 3–11
FAQ
What is Sebastian Aho's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sebastian Aho's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sebastian Aho win tonight?
When Sebastian Aho has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sebastian Aho better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.