Draw Duel
Sean Monahan faceoff stats, 2025-26
CBJ · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.8%
90%: 49.1%–52.4% vs an average regular, on 3,783 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
52.3%
638 won of 1220 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
56.4% / 45.4%
665 strong-side, 328 weak-side draws this season
Next game
8.3 FOW
2026-10-09 vs PIT: 15 draws at 54.6%, range 4–13
Where Monahan wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 349 | 176 | 50.4% |
| OZ right | 107 | 56 | 52.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 32 | 23 | 71.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 39 | 19 | 48.7% |
| Centre | 227 | 114 | 50.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 32 | 21 | 65.6% |
| NZ right (def.) | 25 | 16 | 64.0% |
| DZ left | 252 | 155 | 61.5% |
| DZ right | 157 | 58 | 36.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 38.9% 36 | 35.7% 28 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 6 | 33.3% 6 | 23.5% 17 | 61.5% 13 | 45.0% 20 | 22.2% 9 |
| 2025-26 | 52.3% 1220 | 52.3% 939 | 54.6% 174 | 48.6% 107 | 50.9% 456 | 54.4% 355 | 52.1% 409 | 56.4% 665 | 45.4% 328 |
| 2024-25 | 52.6% 1171 | 52.4% 853 | 58.6% 174 | 46.5% 144 | 50.9% 450 | 59.4% 318 | 49.1% 403 | 58.0% 572 | 40.0% 400 |
| 2023-24 | 54.9% 1272 | 57.1% 871 | 53.1% 262 | 44.6% 139 | 53.5% 510 | 57.0% 305 | 54.9% 457 | 56.0% 865 | 44.3% 221 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 84 | 44.1% 59 | 63.2% 19 | 66.7% 6 | 58.3% 36 | 38.9% 18 | 46.7% 30 | 58.8% 51 | 33.3% 24 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 21–29 | 42.0% | 48.8% | 48.2% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Mikael Backlund | 19–30 | 38.8% | 50.2% | 49.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Elias Lindholm | 17–30 | 36.2% | 45.9% | 45.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Dylan Strome | 18–27 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 46.1% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Dylan Larkin | 26–17 | 60.5% | 48.4% | 49.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Jordan Staal | 18–23 | 43.9% | 47.2% | 46.9% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Nico Hischier | 19–21 | 47.5% | 45.6% | 45.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Sidney Crosby | 16–24 | 40.0% | 45.6% | 45.2% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Auston Matthews | 22–17 | 56.4% | 43.1% | 44.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Bo Horvat | 11–26 | 29.7% | 44.9% | 43.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Noah Cates | 27–8 | 77.1% | 57.3% | 58.6% | unusual (z 2.4) |
| Nick Suzuki | 20–13 | 60.6% | 51.6% | 52.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs UTA | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs BUF | 8 | 20 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs WSH | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs BOS | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ MTL | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ BUF | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ DET | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs WPG | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ CAR | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CAR | 5 | 16 | 31.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-09 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (47%), Ben Kindel (58%)8.3 FOW 4–13
- 2026-10-10 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (49%), Mason McTavish (55%)8.2 FOW 4–13
FAQ
What is Sean Monahan's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sean Monahan's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sean Monahan win tonight?
When Sean Monahan has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sean Monahan better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.