Draw Duel
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff stats, 2025-26
COL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
49.3%
90%: 47.8%–50.8% vs an average regular, on 4,735 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.0%
681 won of 1334 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.4% / 46.8%
756 strong-side, 293 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.6 FOW
2026-10-07 vs WPG: 15 draws at 51.5%, range 3–12
Where MacKinnon wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 130 | 67 | 51.5% |
| OZ right | 458 | 251 | 54.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 36 | 15 | 41.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 44 | 26 | 59.1% |
| Centre | 285 | 140 | 49.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 28 | 17 | 60.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 37 | 19 | 51.4% |
| DZ left | 99 | 38 | 38.4% |
| DZ right | 217 | 108 | 49.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 45.9% 37 | 45.7% 35 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 33.3% 15 | 63.6% 11 | 45.5% 11 | 31.8% 22 | 66.7% 9 |
| 2025-26 | 51.0% 1334 | 49.7% 1134 | 63.5% 167 | 33.3% 33 | 54.1% 588 | 50.5% 430 | 46.2% 316 | 53.4% 756 | 46.8% 293 |
| 2024-25 | 49.9% 1514 | 49.2% 1266 | 54.9% 193 | 49.1% 55 | 52.1% 624 | 48.9% 476 | 47.8% 414 | 52.6% 819 | 45.6% 386 |
| 2023-24 | 46.2% 1314 | 45.5% 1190 | 56.4% 94 | 40.0% 30 | 48.7% 429 | 43.4% 489 | 47.0% 396 | 45.8% 701 | 52.5% 280 |
| Playoffs (all) | 49.8% 536 | 48.3% 466 | 61.4% 57 | 53.8% 13 | 49.1% 224 | 49.2% 181 | 51.9% 131 | 50.0% 322 | 44.6% 92 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly | 42–54 | 43.8% | 46.4% | 45.9% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Ryan Hartman | 31–41 | 43.1% | 53.6% | 52.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Auston Matthews | 28–36 | 43.8% | 42.6% | 42.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 26–38 | 40.6% | 48.5% | 47.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Quinton Byfield | 35–25 | 58.3% | 53.8% | 54.3% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Robert Thomas | 36–23 | 61.0% | 46.2% | 47.8% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| Roope Hintz | 33–24 | 57.9% | 46.4% | 47.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Adam Lowry | 24–31 | 43.6% | 45.9% | 45.7% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 26–26 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 50.3% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Dylan Larkin | 29–20 | 59.2% | 46.1% | 47.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Nico Hischier | 27–20 | 57.4% | 43.1% | 44.4% | a bit unusual (z 2.0) |
| Connor Bedard | 23–23 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 55.8% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs STL | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs LAK | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-26 | @ VGK | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
| 2026-05-24 | @ VGK | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-05-22 | vs VGK | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | vs VGK | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIN | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-05-11 | @ MIN | 1 | 10 | 10.0% |
| 2026-05-09 | @ MIN | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
| 2026-05-05 | vs MIN | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (46%), Jonathan Toews (40%)7.6 FOW 3–12
- 2026-10-08 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (48%), Morgan Frost (47%)7.7 FOW 3–12
- 2026-10-10 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (45%), Auston Matthews (44%)7.1 FOW 3–11
FAQ
What is Nathan MacKinnon's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nathan MacKinnon's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nathan MacKinnon win tonight?
When Nathan MacKinnon has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nathan MacKinnon better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.