Draw Duel
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff stats, 2025-26
MIN · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.4%
90%: 46.9%–50.0% vs an average regular, on 4,202 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
49.0%
681 won of 1390 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
55.9% / 40.6%
657 strong-side, 465 weak-side draws this season
Next game
10.0 FOW
2026-10-06 vs BUF: 18 draws at 54.6%, range 5–15
Where Eriksson Ek wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 406 | 226 | 55.7% |
| OZ right | 104 | 38 | 36.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 30 | 20 | 66.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 43 | 17 | 39.5% |
| Centre | 268 | 125 | 46.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 14 | 12 | 85.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 37 | 19 | 51.4% |
| DZ left | 207 | 109 | 52.7% |
| DZ right | 281 | 115 | 40.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 43.9% 41 | 29.2% 24 | 80.0% 10 | 42.9% 7 | 54.5% 22 | 16.7% 6 | 38.5% 13 | 44.4% 27 | 45.5% 11 |
| 2025-26 | 49.0% 1390 | 48.0% 906 | 53.8% 288 | 46.4% 196 | 51.8% 510 | 49.2% 392 | 45.9% 488 | 55.9% 657 | 40.6% 465 |
| 2024-25 | 47.1% 867 | 47.6% 609 | 53.3% 152 | 34.9% 106 | 50.3% 300 | 48.0% 271 | 42.9% 296 | 52.0% 433 | 37.3% 249 |
| 2023-24 | 49.7% 1602 | 47.7% 1023 | 60.2% 362 | 41.5% 217 | 54.7% 625 | 49.6% 456 | 43.8% 521 | 56.6% 808 | 39.3% 468 |
| Playoffs (all) | 55.0% 302 | 55.8% 206 | 60.7% 56 | 42.5% 40 | 58.1% 117 | 69.1% 81 | 40.4% 104 | 55.6% 171 | 42.3% 71 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | 51–36 | 58.6% | 52.3% | 53.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 32–29 | 52.5% | 52.4% | 52.4% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 26–26 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 49.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Mikael Backlund | 30–22 | 57.7% | 50.6% | 51.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Jason Dickinson | 21–30 | 41.2% | 49.7% | 48.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 14–33 | 29.8% | 43.0% | 41.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Elias Lindholm | 20–23 | 46.5% | 44.0% | 44.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 23–18 | 56.1% | 52.8% | 53.0% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Tomas Hertl | 18–22 | 45.0% | 40.9% | 41.2% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Sidney Crosby | 12–27 | 30.8% | 43.6% | 42.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 17–21 | 44.7% | 45.9% | 45.8% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Anze Kopitar | 18–19 | 48.6% | 41.8% | 42.3% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs BOS | 8 | 19 | 42.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NSH | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DAL | 15 | 24 | 62.5% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ DAL | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs DAL | 11 | 27 | 40.7% |
| 2026-04-22 | vs DAL | 27 | 40 | 67.5% |
| 2026-04-20 | @ DAL | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| 2026-04-18 | @ DAL | 12 | 21 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ DAL | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs SEA | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (51%), Ryan McLeod (52%)10.0 FOW 5–15
- 2026-10-08 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (53%), Brayden Point (52%)9.7 FOW 5–15
- 2026-10-10 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (49%), Aleksander Barkov (46%)9.2 FOW 4–14
FAQ
What is Joel Eriksson Ek's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Joel Eriksson Ek's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Joel Eriksson Ek win tonight?
When Joel Eriksson Ek has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Joel Eriksson Ek better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.