Signature stats
Rebound Control and Shot Diet: two of the most stable stats we have
Most goalie and shooter stats are noisy over a season. These two are not, which makes them useful early: a few weeks in, they already say something real about a goalie or a shooter.
Updated · Method version sequences v1
How it's calculated
rebounds allowed per save = saves followed by an opponent attempt within 3 s (no stoppage) / saves
A raw rebound rate is affected by the shots a goalie faces: point shots through traffic produce more rebounds than wrist shots from the circle. So Rebound Control pairs the raw rate with an expected-rebound model (the chance each save produces a rebound, from the same features as xG). The published number is rebounds above expected: expected minus actual, so positive is good.
Shot Diet = ixG / unblocked individual attempts
Shot Diet says how dangerous a player's typical attempt is. We show it on the NHL EDGE 17-area grid, mapped from our play-by-play coordinates, so you can see where a player shoots from as well as how well.
- Our low-slot area is calibrated (about x ≥ 59–64 ft and |y| ≤ 13–15 ft) so that its share of league shots matches EDGE's league high-danger share, 36.8%.
- EDGE counts shots on goal only; our play-by-play version counts unblocked attempts. Labels say which one you are looking at.
- EDGE's high-, mid- and long-range totals do not add up to its all-shots total, so there is a fourth bucket in their data. We don't force them to sum.
The 17 NHL EDGE shot areas
Example data: invented for illustration
Offensive half rink divided into the NHL EDGE shot-location areas, from the crease and low slot out to the points.
League save percentage by shot class
Research sample: 200 games from 2025-26 (2025020500–699)
Goalies save .849 of rebound shots, .896 off the cycle, .931 in transition and .950 straight off an offensive-zone draw.
Worked example
Two quick calculations
Includes example dataA goalie makes 1,000 saves. A forward takes 180 unblocked attempts worth 12.6 ixG.
- At the league rate of 12.4%, 1,000 saves would produce 124 rebounds. Our goalie allowed 105: 19 fewer than a league-average goalie on raw rate.
- If his expected-rebound total for those specific saves is 118 (he faced a slightly easier mix), his rebounds above expected is 118 − 105 = +13.
- The forward's Shot Diet: 12.6 ÷ 180 = 0.070 xG per attempt. A player shooting mostly from the point might sit near 0.03.
Goalie: +13 rebounds above expected. Forward: 0.070 xG per attempt. The save and shot counts are illustrative; the 12.4% league rate is real.
Save percentage by shot class
| Shot class | SV% | Goals per Fenwick attempt |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | .849 | .095 |
| Cycle | .896 | .068 |
| Rush / transition | .931 | .052 |
| Off an offensive-zone draw | .950 | .028 |
Reliability
Both stats are among the most repeatable we measure. Freeze rate and shooter rebound creation are not.
| Measure | Split-half r | Sample | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shot Diet (ixG per attempt) | 0.68 | Split-half, 200 games | Stable |
| Goalie rebounds allowed per save | 0.39–0.48 | Split-half, 200 games | Moderate |
| Goalie freeze %Context only. | ≈ −0.06 | Split-half, 200 games | Noise |
| Shooter rebound creationNot published. | ≈ 0 | Split-half, 200 games | Noise |
Split-half r: we split each sample in two (for example odd and even games) and correlate the two halves across players or teams. Near 0 means the stat is mostly noise; near 1 means it is a stable trait.
Limitations
- We won't publish Rebound Control rankings until the expected-rebound model is in place; until then goalie pages show the raw rate with the league average beside it.
- The 3 s window catches most rebounds but misses a puck that sits in the crease for 4 s before someone shoots.
- Shot Diet rewards getting to the slot, but a player who shoots a lot from distance on purpose (to create rebounds or tips) will look worse than his value.
- The EDGE areas are traced from the NHL EDGE site and mapped to play-by-play coordinates, which carry scorer error of a few feet.
FAQ
Is rebound control a real goalie skill?
The evidence says yes, moderately. Rebounds allowed per save had a split-half correlation of 0.39–0.48 in our sample, well above zero. The league average is 12.4% of saves.
What is a good xG per shot attempt?
It depends on role. Net-front forwards sit well above league average and defencemen shooting from the point well below. Shot Diet is stable (split-half r 0.68), so a big change within a season usually reflects a real change in where a player shoots from.
Why is save percentage on rebounds so low?
Because the goalie is often out of position. In our sample goalies saved .849 of rebound shots on goal, against .950 of shots straight off an offensive-zone draw.
What is the NHL EDGE shot grid?
NHL EDGE divides the offensive zone into 17 areas and reports shots on goal and goals for each. We map our own play-by-play attempts onto the same areas.