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NHL Stack Finder: Friday, Oct 2

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Friday, Oct 2 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: STL L2 (Thomas–Holloway–Snuggerud) vs DAL.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1STLL2vs DAL0.67 xG

    Robert Thomas93%, Dylan Holloway95%, Jimmy Snuggerud80%

    12.2 min/game · 3.73 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DAL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
    • vs Jake Oettinger .899 (97% to start)
    • Oettinger .850 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  2. #2NYRL2vs DET0.66 xG

    J.T. Miller92%, Oliver Bjorkstrand20%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%

    10.1 min/game · 3.83 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs John Gibson .901 (87% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  3. #3WPGPP1vs BOS0.59 xG

    Jonathan Toews0.3%, Mark Scheifele100%, Josh Morrissey99%, Kyle Connor99%, Gabriel Vilardi80%

    4.7 min/game · 8.38 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS shorthanded time +13%
    • BOS PK xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  4. #4WPGL1vs BOS0.56 xG

    Nino Niederreiter4.0%, Adam Lowry5.7%, Cole Perfetti36%

    11.7 min/game · 3.15 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  5. #5CARL1vs WSH0.55 xG

    Taylor Hall28%, Logan Stankoven67%, Jackson Blake68%

    9.7 min/game · 3.73 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • WSH 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Logan Thompson .912 (97% to start)
    • Thompson .856 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  6. #6DALPP1vs STL0.51 xG

    Matt Duchene62%, Mikko Rantanen99%, Jason Robertson100%, Miro Heiskanen100%, Wyatt Johnston100%

    2.8 min/game · 9.91 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • STL shorthanded time −5%
    • STL PK xGA/60 +2%
    • vs Jordan Binnington .873 (83% to start)
    • Binnington .795 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  7. #7WPGL2vs BOS0.51 xG

    Mark Scheifele100%, Kyle Connor99%, Gabriel Vilardi80%

    10.8 min/game · 3.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  8. #8NYRL1vs DET0.48 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, Alexis Lafrenière82%, Gabe Perreault53%

    10.9 min/game · 2.58 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs John Gibson .901 (87% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  9. #9ANAL1vs VGK0.45 xG

    Alex Killorn5.1%, Mikael Granlund51%, Beckett Sennecke93%

    10.3 min/game · 3.02 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Carter Hart .893 (97% to start)
    • Hart .877 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  10. #10VGKL3vs ANA0.45 xG

    Tomas Hertl83%, Victor Olofsson12%, Trevor Connelly32%

    8.6 min/game · 4.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Lukas Dostal .888 (97% to start)
    • Dostal .875 on cycle shots
    • Together 1 of last 3

By game

NYR @ DET

  • NYRL2vs DET0.66 xG

    J.T. Miller92%, Oliver Bjorkstrand20%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%

    10.1 min/game · 3.83 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs John Gibson .901 (87% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • NYRL1vs DET0.48 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, Alexis Lafrenière82%, Gabe Perreault53%

    10.9 min/game · 2.58 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs John Gibson .901 (87% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • NYRL3vs DET0.43 xG

    Eeli Tolvanen36%, Will Cuylle64%, Noah Laba11%

    9.1 min/game · 2.79 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs John Gibson .901 (87% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • NYRPP1vs DET0.12 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, J.T. Miller92%, Adam Fox99%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%, Alexis Lafrenière82%

    1.0 min/game · 7.17 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET shorthanded time −16%
    • DET PK xGA/60 +11%
    • vs John Gibson .901 (87% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • NYRL4vs DET0.05 xG

    Joseph Veleno3.3%, Tye Kartye7.2%, Matt Rempe5.0%

    8.7 min/game · 1.64 xGF/60 · P(intact) 18%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs John Gibson .901 (87% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 2

WSH @ CAR

BOS @ WPG

  • WPGPP1vs BOS0.59 xG

    Jonathan Toews0.3%, Mark Scheifele100%, Josh Morrissey99%, Kyle Connor99%, Gabriel Vilardi80%

    4.7 min/game · 8.38 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS shorthanded time +13%
    • BOS PK xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • WPGL1vs BOS0.56 xG

    Nino Niederreiter4.0%, Adam Lowry5.7%, Cole Perfetti36%

    11.7 min/game · 3.15 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • WPGL2vs BOS0.51 xG

    Mark Scheifele100%, Kyle Connor99%, Gabriel Vilardi80%

    10.8 min/game · 3.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • WPGL4vs BOS0.34 xG

    Cole Koepke0.0%, Nikita Chibrikov9.6%, Brayden Yager19%

    7.3 min/game · 3.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • WPGL3vs BOS0.34 xG

    Jonathan Toews0.3%, Isak Rosen14%, Brad Lambert15%

    9.7 min/game · 2.32 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (97% to start)
    • Swayman .852 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • BOSL2vs WPG0.28 xG

    Sean Kuraly0.1%, Tanner Jeannot6.5%, Mark Kastelic13%

    7.8 min/game · 2.03 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • WPG 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Stuart Skinner .888 (97% to start)
    • Skinner .806 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • BOSL1vs WPG0.18 xG

    David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha77%, Marat Khusnutdinov11%

    12.7 min/game · 3.25 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • WPG 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Stuart Skinner .888 (97% to start)
    • Skinner .806 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BOSL3vs WPG0.11 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, Morgan Geekie97%, Casey Mittelstadt14%

    8.9 min/game · 2.90 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • WPG 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Stuart Skinner .888 (97% to start)
    • Skinner .806 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BOSPP1vs WPG0.07 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha77%, Charlie McAvoy96%, Morgan Geekie97%

    3.8 min/game · 8.89 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • WPG shorthanded time −10%
    • WPG PK xGA/60 −1%
    • vs Stuart Skinner .888 (97% to start)
    • Skinner .806 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • BOSL4vs WPG0.07 xG

    Michael Eyssimont0.1%, Alex Steeves5.6%, Fraser Minten45%

    7.1 min/game · 2.16 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • WPG 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Stuart Skinner .888 (97% to start)
    • Skinner .806 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

STL @ DAL

  • STLL2vs DAL0.67 xG

    Robert Thomas93%, Dylan Holloway95%, Jimmy Snuggerud80%

    12.2 min/game · 3.73 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DAL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
    • vs Jake Oettinger .899 (97% to start)
    • Oettinger .850 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • DALPP1vs STL0.51 xG

    Matt Duchene62%, Mikko Rantanen99%, Jason Robertson100%, Miro Heiskanen100%, Wyatt Johnston100%

    2.8 min/game · 9.91 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • STL shorthanded time −5%
    • STL PK xGA/60 +2%
    • vs Jordan Binnington .873 (83% to start)
    • Binnington .795 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • STLL4vs DAL0.44 xG

    Pavel Buchnevich36%, Jordan Kyrou79%, Pius Suter4.1%

    10.8 min/game · 2.77 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DAL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
    • vs Jake Oettinger .899 (97% to start)
    • Oettinger .850 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • STLL3vs DAL0.40 xG

    Jonatan Berggren4.0%, Jake Neighbours30%, Dalibor Dvorsky28%

    11.4 min/game · 2.37 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DAL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
    • vs Jake Oettinger .899 (97% to start)
    • Oettinger .850 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • STLL1vs DAL0.32 xG

    Nathan Walker0.1%, Alexey Toropchenko0.1%, Jack Finley3.2%

    13.0 min/game · 1.64 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DAL 5v5 xGA/60 −7%
    • vs Jake Oettinger .899 (97% to start)
    • Oettinger .850 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • STLPP1vs DAL0.16 xG

    Robert Thomas93%, Philip Broberg66%, Dylan Holloway95%, Jake Neighbours30%, Jimmy Snuggerud80%

    1.2 min/game · 9.34 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DAL shorthanded time +7%
    • DAL PK xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Jake Oettinger .899 (97% to start)
    • Oettinger .850 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • DALL1vs STL0.15 xG

    Matt Duchene62%, Jason Robertson100%, Mavrik Bourque35%

    12.7 min/game · 2.79 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • STL 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Jordan Binnington .873 (83% to start)
    • Binnington .795 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • DALL3vs STL0.14 xG

    Colin Blackwell0.1%, Radek Faksa0.1%, Oskar Bäck0.1%

    5.3 min/game · 1.55 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • STL 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Jordan Binnington .873 (83% to start)
    • Binnington .795 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • DALL2vs STL0.14 xG

    Mikko Rantanen99%, Wyatt Johnston100%, Justin Hryckowian18%

    10.6 min/game · 3.03 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • STL 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Jordan Binnington .873 (83% to start)
    • Binnington .795 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • DALL4vs STL0.06 xG

    Jamie Benn22%, Sam Steel5.8%, Arttu Hyry4.0%

    6.5 min/game · 2.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • STL 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Jordan Binnington .873 (83% to start)
    • Binnington .795 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

ANA @ VGK

  • ANAL1vs VGK0.45 xG

    Alex Killorn5.1%, Mikael Granlund51%, Beckett Sennecke93%

    10.3 min/game · 3.02 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Carter Hart .893 (97% to start)
    • Hart .877 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • VGKL3vs ANA0.45 xG

    Tomas Hertl83%, Victor Olofsson12%, Trevor Connelly32%

    8.6 min/game · 4.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Lukas Dostal .888 (97% to start)
    • Dostal .875 on cycle shots
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • VGKL2vs ANA0.35 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Ivan Barbashev67%, Jack Eichel99%

    6.4 min/game · 3.54 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Lukas Dostal .888 (97% to start)
    • Dostal .875 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • ANAPP1vs VGK0.32 xG

    Alex Killorn5.1%, Jackson LaCombe97%, Mason McTavish51%, Cutter Gauthier98%, Beckett Sennecke93%

    3.3 min/game · 6.93 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK shorthanded time +5%
    • VGK PK xGA/60 −13%
    • vs Carter Hart .893 (97% to start)
    • Hart .877 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • ANAL2vs VGK0.31 xG

    Chris Kreider62%, Troy Terry47%, Leo Carlsson94%

    6.5 min/game · 3.26 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Carter Hart .893 (97% to start)
    • Hart .877 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • VGKL1vs ANA0.23 xG

    William Karlsson24%, Mitch Marner99%, Brett Howden15%

    7.3 min/game · 2.04 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Lukas Dostal .888 (97% to start)
    • Dostal .875 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • ANAL4vs VGK0.04 xG

    Ryan Poehling6.7%, Mason McTavish51%, Cutter Gauthier98%

    3.9 min/game · 3.15 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Carter Hart .893 (97% to start)
    • Hart .877 on other shots
    • Together 2 of last 3

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.