Betting research
NHL Betting Research
Puck line, over/under and 60-minute records, first goal scorers, shots allowed and defense vs position, the grand salami and tonight's referees. Every page shows its sample size, whether the pattern repeats, and how it did against real prices after the vig.
Across 2,618 regular-season games with closing lines from 11 US sportsbooks (2024-25 and 2025-26), no blanket bet and no team trend beat the closing price after the vig: every favourite at −1.5 returned −1.0% in 2024-25 (1,313 bets) and −16.0% in 2025-26 (1,306).
Team records against the line
Players, teams and tonight
- First goal scorer statsWho scores first, and whether it repeats
- Shots allowed per gameShots against, shots for and opposing goalie saves by team
- Defense vs positionShots, goals and points allowed to centres, wingers and defencemen
- Grand salami tonightTonight's totals added up, implied team totals and the nightly record
- Referees tonightTonight's crews with power plays, penalties and totals in their games
What we found, plainly
- The puck line is priced about as well as our own margin model prices it. The market shades favourite −1.5 by about 2 points, roughly the size of the vig, so neither side pays.
- Team records against the spread and the total do not repeat beyond chance, and betting last season's best teams lost money the next season.
- First goals are goals with a timestamp: there is no repeatable first-goal skill.
- Defense vs position and referees add nothing measurable on top of the closing line.
- Player props: Live since Oct 12 (3,934 graded lines): the market was more accurate on points and assists, about even on shots on goal. Every live test is on the live tests scoreboard.
Every blanket bet, after the vig
One unit on every game at the median closing price of 11 US books (2,618 regular-season games with closing lines from 11 US sportsbooks (2024-25 and 2025-26)). Each loses about the vig in a normal season, and the sign flips with the season, not with any skill.
| Bet every game on | 2024-25 ROI (bets) | 2025-26 ROI (bets) |
|---|---|---|
| Favourite −1.5 | −1.0% (1,313) | −16.0% (1,306) |
| Underdog +1.5 | −4.5% (1,311) | +2.1% (1,306) |
| Favourite moneyline | −2.5% (1,313) | −8.5% (1,306) |
| Underdog moneyline | −6.2% (1,311) | +2.0% (1,306) |
| Home moneyline | +1.2% (1,312) | −5.8% (1,306) |
| Away moneyline | −9.9% (1,312) | −0.7% (1,306) |
| Over | −7.6% (1,238) | −3.3% (1,251) |
| Under | −0.8% (1,238) | −6.0% (1,251) |
How these pages are built
Closing lines for 2024-25 and 2025-26 are the median prices of 11 US sportsbooks about an hour before puck drop; 2026-27 uses Polymarket's prediction-market lines, which carry no-vig probabilities but no sportsbook prices. Results come from NHL game data. Every number is computed from stored rows after each night's games, never typed by hand. The research behind these pages: Prop Lab.
Frequently asked questions
Are NHL betting trends worth following?
Mostly not. Team puck-line and over/under results against the closing price had season-to-season correlations of −0.17 and −0.17 in 2024-25 to 2025-26: about zero. A team's record says what happened, not what will.
Does Edgehalla have an edge on NHL props?
Not so far. Live since Oct 12 (3,934 graded lines): the market was more accurate on points and assists, about even on shots on goal.
How often do NHL favourites cover the puck line?
36.0% of the time over 2,581 games in 2024-26, against 37.9% implied by the closing prices.