Betting research
NHL Over/Under Records 2026-27
Every NHL team against the closing total: overs, unders and pushes, home and away, with the market's expected over rate, goals per game against the implied total, and units on both sides.
No NHL team has 10 games with a line yet in 2026-27 (the most is 5), so no leader is named: every rate below is mostly noise.
Early season: no team has 20 games with a line yet, so every rate here is mostly noise. Last season's full table is one tab over.
Best and worst over rates, 2026-27
Vegas Golden Knights100.0%5-0-0 · +50.7 vs mkt
Buffalo Sabres100.0%4-0-0 · +48.5 vs mkt
Montreal Canadiens100.0%4-0-0 · +49.3 vs mkt
Pittsburgh Penguins100.0%3-0-0 · +46.8 vs mkt
Minnesota Wild80.0%4-1-0 · +30.3 vs mkt
Detroit Red Wings75.0%3-1-0 · +26.0 vs mkt
Utah Mammoth0.0%0-1-0 · −54.5 vs mkt
Philadelphia Flyers0.0%0-4-0 · −49.8 vs mkt
New York Islanders0.0%0-4-0 · −48.3 vs mkt
Dallas Stars0.0%0-4-0 · −50.7 vs mkt
Vancouver Canucks25.0%1-3-0 · −22.2 vs mkt
Ottawa Senators25.0%1-3-0 · −26.0 vs mkt
Do over/under records repeat?
How far each team's over rate ran ahead of or behind the market barely repeats. Odd games against even games within a season: r = −0.17 (2024-25) and −0.25 (2025-26). One season to the next: r = −0.17 across 32 teams. The spread between teams (SD 4.9 pts and 4.9 pts) is about what chance alone produces (5.5 pts; 95th percentile 6.7 pts).
Betting every 2025-26 game of the 10 teams with the best 2024-25 over records returned −2.3% (778 bets); the 10 worst returned −1.3% (785). Betting the unders of the 10 biggest under teams returned −8.5% (785).
So a team at the top of this table has mostly been lucky against prices that were already right. The sample is 2,618 regular-season games with closing lines from 11 US sportsbooks (2024-25 and 2025-26).
Every team, 2026-27
| # | Team | Lines | O-U-P | Over % | Market | vs mkt | Over u | Under u | Goals / implied | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas Golden Knights | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 49.3% | +50.7 | – | – | 7.40 / 6.39 | 3-0-0 | 2-0-0 |
| 2 | Buffalo Sabres | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 51.5% | +48.5 | – | – | 7.75 / 6.45 | 1-0-0 | 3-0-0 |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 50.7% | +49.3 | – | – | 7.50 / 6.66 | 3-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 53.2% | +46.8 | – | – | 7.67 / 6.78 | – | 3-0-0 |
| 5 | Minnesota Wild | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 49.7% | +30.3 | – | – | 6.40 / 6.21 | 2-1-0 | 2-0-0 |
| 6 | Detroit Red Wings | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 49.0% | +26.0 | – | – | 6.50 / 6.32 | 2-1-0 | 1-0-0 |
| 7 |  Florida Panthers | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 49.5% | +25.5 | – | – | 8.50 / 6.10 | 1-1-0 | 2-0-0 |
| 8 |  Seattle Kraken | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 48.3% | +26.8 | – | – | 7.50 / 6.28 | 1-0-0 | 2-1-0 |
| 9 |  St. Louis Blues | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 51.5% | +23.5 | – | – | 7.00 / 5.95 | 0-1-0 | 3-0-0 |
| 10 |  Chicago Blackhawks | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 50.5% | +16.2 | – | – | 6.33 / 6.31 | 2-1-0 | – |
| 11 |  Nashville Predators | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 46.3% | +20.3 | – | – | 6.33 / 6.44 | 2-1-0 | – |
| 12 |  New Jersey Devils | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 48.5% | +11.5 | – | – | 7.00 / 6.35 | 2-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 13 |  San Jose Sharks | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 50.3% | +9.7 | – | – | 6.40 / 6.64 | 1-0-0 | 2-2-0 |
| 14 |  Columbus Blue Jackets | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 49.0% | +1.0 | – | – | 5.50 / 6.32 | 2-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| 15 |  New York Rangers | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 49.3% | +0.8 | – | – | 5.25 / 6.33 | 1-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 16 |  Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 48.8% | +1.3 | – | – | 6.50 / 6.31 | 1-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 17 |  Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 51.2% | −1.2 | – | – | 6.50 / 6.68 | 1-2-0 | 1-0-0 |
| 18 |  Winnipeg Jets | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 47.0% | +3.0 | – | – | 5.50 / 6.22 | 1-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 19 |  Washington Capitals | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 49.0% | +1.0 | – | – | 7.00 / 6.32 | 2-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| 20 |  Colorado Avalanche | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 49.3% | −9.3 | – | – | 5.80 / 6.39 | 1-1-0 | 1-2-0 |
| 21 |  Calgary Flames | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 46.3% | −13.0 | – | – | 6.33 / 6.44 | 0-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 22 |  Edmonton Oilers | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 49.2% | −15.8 | – | – | 6.00 / 6.58 | 1-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| 23 |  Los Angeles Kings | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 50.2% | −16.8 | – | – | 5.67 / 5.96 | 0-2-0 | 1-0-0 |
| 24 |  Anaheim Ducks | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 49.3% | −24.3 | – | – | 6.00 / 6.33 | 0-2-0 | 1-1-0 |
| 25 |  Boston Bruins | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 49.8% | −24.8 | – | – | 6.25 / 6.11 | – | 1-3-0 |
| 26 |  Carolina Hurricanes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 46.5% | −21.5 | – | – | 6.25 / 6.45 | 0-1-0 | 1-2-0 |
| 27 | Ottawa Senators | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 51.0% | −26.0 | – | – | 5.25 / 5.67 | 1-1-0 | 0-2-0 |
| 28 | Vancouver Canucks | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 47.3% | −22.2 | – | – | 6.25 / 6.49 | 1-0-0 | 0-3-0 |
| 29 | Dallas Stars | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 50.7% | −50.7 | – | – | 4.75 / 5.91 | 0-2-0 | 0-2-0 |
| 30 | New York Islanders | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 48.3% | −48.3 | – | – | 4.50 / 6.03 | 0-2-0 | 0-2-0 |
| 31 | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 49.8% | −49.8 | – | – | 4.25 / 5.86 | 0-3-0 | 0-1-0 |
| 32 | Utah Mammoth | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 54.5% | −54.5 | – | – | 6.00 / 6.84 | – | 0-1-0 |
Lines: Polymarket closing prices (no-vig), so units are not shown. Graded on the final score (the shootout winner counts one goal). Regular season only.
After the vig
Flat 1-unit bets at the median closing price across 11 US books. A blanket bet loses about the vig, and the sign flips between seasons:
| Bet every game on | 2024-25 ROI (bets) | 2025-26 ROI (bets) |
|---|---|---|
| Over | −7.6% (1,238) | −3.3% (1,251) |
| Under | −0.8% (1,238) | −6.0% (1,251) |
Overs lost −7.6% in 2024-25, when games went over 48.4% against 50.2% expected; in 2025-26 overs hit 51.1% (50.4% expected) and still lost −3.3%.
Current-season units use prediction-market lines where no book prices are stored, so they show as –.
What an over/under record measures
Each game's closing total (usually 5.5, 6 or 6.5 goals) is graded on the final score, with the shootout winner counted as one goal, the way sportsbooks settle it. A push is a whole-number total hit exactly. "Market" is the share of overs the no-vig closing prices expected for that team's games; in 2026-27 the league went 32-30-0 over.
Team over rates do not repeat. Splitting a season into odd and even games gives correlations near −0.25, and one season to the next −0.17. Scoring levels move with goaltending and pace, but books move the total first.
A team that has gone over in eight of ten is usually a team whose totals are about to move, not one that will keep beating them. Use the totals and implied team totals to see scoring expectations, and the vs-market column to see whether a streak is real.
Frequently asked questions
Which NHL team goes over the total the most in 2026-27?
VGK has gone over in 5-0-0 (100.0%) of its games with a closing total through Oct 20.
Do NHL over/under team trends continue?
Not reliably. Team over rates against the closing total had a split-half correlation of −0.25 and a season-to-season correlation of −0.17 in 2024-26. Betting the overs of last season's 10 biggest over teams returned −2.3%.
How often do NHL games go over the total?
In 2024-25 games went over 48.4% of the time (the prices expected 50.2%); in 2025-26, 51.1% (50.4% expected). Blind overs returned −7.6% in 2024-25 (1,238 bets) and −3.3% in 2025-26 (1,251), blind unders −0.8% in 2024-25 (1,238 bets) and −6.0% in 2025-26 (1,251).