2026 season · Week 5
Week 5 DST Streamers: Best Defenses to Stream
Every defense ranked by expected fantasy points this week, with the drivers: the opponent’s implied total, sack and turnover rates, and home or away. Best available: JAX D/ST, LV D/ST, CIN D/ST.
DST Streamers rankings
| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAXJAX D/ST vs PHI | 7.0 | 18.0 | 28% |
| 2 | LVLV D/ST @ NE | 6.4 | 24.5 | 12% |
| 3 | CINCIN D/ST @ MIA | 6.4 | 17.8 | 18% |
| 4 | DALDAL D/ST vs TB | 6.3 | 19.0 | 6% |
| 5 | WASWAS D/ST vs NYG | 6.1 | 20.3 | 4% |
| 6 | NYJNYJ D/ST vs CLE | 6.1 | 18.5 | 11% |
| 7 | NENE D/ST vs LV | 6.0 | 21.0 | 48% |
| 8 | NONO D/ST vs MIN | 6.0 | 22.0 | 4% |
| 9 | CHICHI D/ST @ GB | 5.9 | 21.3 | 38% |
| 10 | CLECLE D/ST @ NYJ | 5.8 | 21.0 | 41% |
| 11 | DETDET D/ST @ ARI | 5.7 | 25.0 | 40% |
| 12 | LACLAC D/ST vs DEN | 5.6 | 23.0 | 18% |
| 13 | INDIND D/ST @ PIT | 5.3 | 23.5 | 2% |
| 14 | ATLATL D/ST vs BAL | 5.2 | 20.3 | 1% |
| 15 | NYGNYG D/ST @ WAS | 5.2 | 23.3 | 8% |
| 16 | MIAMIA D/ST vs CIN | 5.0 | 24.8 | 1% |
| 17 | BUFBUF D/ST @ LAR | 5.0 | 28.5 | 46% |
| 18 | TENTEN D/ST vs HOU | 4.7 | 22.5 | 2% |
| 19 | GBGB D/ST vs CHI | 4.6 | 24.3 | 30% |
| 20 | SFSF D/ST @ SEA | 4.0 | 25.3 | 48% |
| 21 | ARIARI D/ST vs DET | 4.0 | 29.5 | 3% |
| 22 | TBTB D/ST @ DAL | 3.9 | 28.5 | 20% |
How this works
Expected points are our weekly projections (the same number as the projections page). The drivers explain them: expected sacks use the opponent’s sack rate allowed against this defense’s pressure rate (each shrunk with 250 dropbacks of league average and 35% weight on last season), times expected dropbacks. Interceptions and fumbles use the same shape with much heavier shrinkage, because they are mostly noise. Points allowed come from the opponent’s implied total and how actual scores spread around it in past seasons, scored through each format’s tiers.
Honest read: this ranking is close to sorting by the opponent’s implied total. In 2024–25 it beat that naive ranking by about 0.01 in rank correlation. Stream against low implied totals; use the drivers to break ties.
Sources: nflverse schedules, lines and play-by-play, ESPN rostered %Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ET
Frequently asked questions
How do you rank streaming defenses?
By our weekly projection for each defense: the same expected points as the projections page. It simulates the game 2,000 times from the opponent’s expected touchdowns and field goals (Vegas implied total), sacks and takeaways, and scores points allowed through each format’s tiers. The columns show the drivers: the opponent’s implied total, both teams’ sack and turnover rates and the chance of each points-allowed tier.
Does the model beat just streaming against bad offenses?
Barely. In 2024–25 walk-forward tests our ranking had a Spearman correlation of about 0.33 with actual DST points, against 0.32 for ranking opponents’ implied totals alone. Vegas already prices most of it; the model adds a points scale, tier odds and the drivers.
What is the DraftKings tab?
The same projection scored with DraftKings DST rules (different points-allowed tiers), for DFS.
What does “next week” show?
Next week’s opponent and the opponent’s implied total from the current line, so you can see whether a stream is a one-week rental or worth holding.