Deployment jumps
Breakout Comps: he just got a bigger role. What happened to players like him?
The latest PP1 promotions, lineup moves and ice-time jumps, each matched with the historical players who made the most similar jump from the most similar starting point, and what they produced over the next 20 games.
Latest jump Apr 16, 2026 · comp pool from 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (older seasons are still loading, so the pool grows over time).
Latest jumps
Nino NiederreiterR · WPG
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 12:40 → 15:37 (+2:57) · 0.10 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.25 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.13 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Connor Zary (2025-26, 0.20 P/GP after), Conor Sheary (2025-26, 0.20 P/GP after), Christian Fischer (2017-18, 0.60 P/GP after)
All comps →Liam O'BrienC · UTA
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 9:28 → 12:06 (+2:38) · 0.10 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.15 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.08 vs before the jump); 8 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Curtis Lazar (2024-25, 0.10 P/GP after), Adam Edstrom (2024-25, 0.30 P/GP after), Cole Koepke (2025-26, 0.20 P/GP after)
All comps →Valeri NichushkinR · COL
Promoted to PP1Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 15:25 → 18:13 (+2:48), PP share 11% → 52% · 0.60 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.55 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.08 vs before the jump); 0 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Brandon Saad (2024-25, 0.50 P/GP after), Dominik Kubalik (2020-21, 0.75 P/GP after), Gabe Perreault (2025-26, 0.70 P/GP after)
All comps →Haydn FleuryD · WPG
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 12:24 → 18:59 (+6:35) · 0.20 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.17 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.00 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Jon Merrill (2024-25, 0.05 P/GP after), Alexander Petrovic (2025-26, 0.30 P/GP after), Michael Stone (2019-20, 0.10 P/GP after)
All comps →Jake WalmanD · EDM
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 16:31 → 19:19 (+2:48), PP share 8% → 1% · 0.20 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.20 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.03 vs before the jump); 1 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Sam Dickinson (2025-26, 0.20 P/GP after), Marcus Pettersson (2020-21, 0.15 P/GP after), Nils Lundkvist (2025-26, 0.20 P/GP after)
All comps →Kevin StenlundC · UTA
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 13:42 → 14:25 (+0:43) · 0.00 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.50 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.45 vs before the jump); 5 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Adam Lowry (2025-26, 0.40 P/GP after), Justin Danforth (2024-25, 0.45 P/GP after), Jujhar Khaira (2019-20, 0.35 P/GP after)
All comps →Brandon TanevL · UTA
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 8:55 → 11:52 (+2:57) · 0.10 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.25 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.13 vs before the jump); 6 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Adam Edstrom (2024-25, 0.30 P/GP after), Cole Koepke (2024-25, 0.20 P/GP after), Zack Ostapchuk (2024-25, 0.00 P/GP after)
All comps →Michael CarconeL · UTA
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 14:06 → 17:49 (+3:43), PP share 20% → 0% · 0.40 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.42 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.00 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Lars Eller (2025-26, 0.10 P/GP after), Frans Nielsen (2017-18, 0.25 P/GP after), Tommy Novak (2025-26, 0.60 P/GP after)
All comps →Nick PerbixD · NSH
Ice-time spikeApr 16, 2026 · TOI 17:49 → 21:40 (+3:51) · 0.30 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.23 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.01 vs before the jump); 5 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Kaiden Guhle (2025-26, 0.35 P/GP after), Philippe Myers (2020-21, 0.25 P/GP after), Connor Murphy (2024-25, 0.35 P/GP after)
All comps →Alexey ToropchenkoR · STL
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 11:20 → 14:25 (+3:05) · 0.30 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.30 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.03 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-26, 0.15 P/GP after), Dale Weise (2018-19, 0.30 P/GP after), Nick Bjugstad (2025-26, 0.20 P/GP after)
All comps →Joel FarabeeL · CGY
Promoted to PP1Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 17:03 → 20:40 (+3:37), PP share 8% → 61% · 0.60 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.50 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.10 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Ondrej Palat (2019-20, 0.60 P/GP after), Alex Iafallo (2018-19, 0.25 P/GP after), Adam Fantilli (2024-25, 1.00 P/GP after)
All comps →Ty EmbersonD · EDM
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 13:37 → 18:54 (+5:17) · 0.00 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.17 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.17 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Arber Xhekaj (2024-25, 0.20 P/GP after), Erik Gudbranson (2019-20, 0.20 P/GP after), Lian Bichsel (2025-26, 0.25 P/GP after)
All comps →Curtis DouglasC · VAN
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 7:50 → 12:00 (+4:10) · 0.10 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.10 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.05 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Adam Edstrom (2024-25, 0.05 P/GP after), Jansen Harkins (2021-22, 0.10 P/GP after), Chris Wagner (2024-25, 0.05 P/GP after)
All comps →Tyler TuckerD · STL
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 14:42 → 18:51 (+4:09) · 0.40 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.17 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.15 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Timothy Liljegren (2021-22, 0.60 P/GP after), Nick DeSimone (2025-26, 0.10 P/GP after), Matt Benning (2019-20, 0.15 P/GP after)
All comps →Joel KivirantaL · COL
Ice-time spikeApr 16, 2026 · TOI 9:21 → 14:22 (+5:01) · 0.00 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.23 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.13 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Zemgus Girgensons (2024-25, 0.10 P/GP after), Luke Glendening (2024-25, 0.20 P/GP after), Nick Cousins (2024-25, 0.40 P/GP after)
All comps →Jack FinleyC · STL
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 10:44 → 14:13 (+3:29), PP share 1% → 6% · 0.00 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.17 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.17 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Beck Malenstyn (2025-26, 0.25 P/GP after), Joakim Nordstrom (2018-19, 0.25 P/GP after), Juho Lammikko (2020-21, 0.15 P/GP after)
All comps →Quinton ByfieldC · LAK
Promoted to PP1Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 20:07 → 21:51 (+1:44), PP share 23% → 62% · 0.80 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.63 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.13 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Morgan Geekie (2024-25, 1.05 P/GP after), Valeri Nichushkin (2025-26, 0.60 P/GP after), Artturi Lehkonen (2025-26, 0.70 P/GP after)
All comps →Luke EvangelistaR · NSH
Promoted to PP1Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 15:28 → 14:22 (−1:06), PP share 24% → 67% · 0.50 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.40 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.05 vs before the jump); 1 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Charlie Coyle (2021-22, 0.85 P/GP after), JJ Peterka (2025-26, 0.70 P/GP after), Ivan Demidov (2025-26, 0.80 P/GP after)
All comps →JJ PeterkaR · UTA
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 14:47 → 21:02 (+6:15), PP share 22% → 0% · 0.40 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.35 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.04 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Kevin Labanc (2019-20, 0.55 P/GP after), Andreas Johnsson (2020-21, 0.30 P/GP after), Kevin Hayes (2024-25, 0.35 P/GP after)
All comps →Bobby McMannC · SEA
Promoted to PP1Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 17:23 → 16:36 (−0:47), PP share 33% → 45% · 0.50 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.70 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.10 vs before the jump); 7 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Sven Baertschi (2017-18, 0.75 P/GP after), Cutter Gauthier (2025-26, 0.70 P/GP after), Timo Meier (2024-25, 0.70 P/GP after)
All comps →Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 11:53 → 14:06 (+2:13) · 0.10 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.25 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.20 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Pontus Holmberg (2024-25, 0.40 P/GP after), Ben Meyers (2025-26, 0.40 P/GP after), Noel Acciari (2024-25, 0.10 P/GP after)
All comps →Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 13:43 → 20:29 (+6:46), PP share 30% → 66% · 0.40 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.38 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.15 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Sam Rinzel (2025-26, 0.25 P/GP after), Uvis Balinskis (2024-25, 0.30 P/GP after), Logan Stanley (2025-26, 0.40 P/GP after)
All comps →Zachary L'HeureuxL · NSH
Ice-time spikeApr 16, 2026 · TOI 14:04 → 16:46 (+2:42) · 0.40 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.38 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.03 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Zach Benson (2024-25, 0.45 P/GP after), Conor Sheary (2020-21, 0.45 P/GP after), Anthony Beauvillier (2024-25, 0.15 P/GP after)
All comps →Fedor SvechkovC · NSH
Ice-time spikeApr 16, 2026 · TOI 12:35 → 15:31 (+2:56) · 0.30 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.32 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.13 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Oskar Bäck (2025-26, 0.15 P/GP after), Christian Dvorak (2024-25, 0.35 P/GP after), Jack McBain (2025-26, 0.35 P/GP after)
All comps →Joakim KemellR · NSH
Ice-time spikeApr 16, 2026 · TOI 9:37 → 13:42 (+4:05), PP share 0% → 8% · 0.30 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.32 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.00 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Beck Malenstyn (2024-25, 0.20 P/GP after), Tim Schaller (2019-20, 0.05 P/GP after), Steven Lorentz (2025-26, 0.30 P/GP after)
All comps →Ty MuellerC · VAN
Moved up the lineupApr 16, 2026 · TOI 10:26 → 12:59 (+2:33) · 0.00 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.13 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.13 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Casey Cizikas (2024-25, 0.10 P/GP after), Tim Schaller (2019-20, 0.10 P/GP after), Jay Beagle (2019-20, 0.10 P/GP after)
All comps →Sam DickinsonD · SJS
Ice-time spikeApr 16, 2026 · TOI 18:07 → 21:08 (+3:01), PP share 10% → 32% · 0.20 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.30 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.04 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Timothy Liljegren (2024-25, 0.40 P/GP after), Dante Fabbro (2019-20, 0.15 P/GP after), Anton Stralman (2019-20, 0.30 P/GP after)
All comps →Igor ChernyshovL · SJS
Promoted to PP1Apr 16, 2026 · TOI 15:18 → 15:23 (+0:05), PP share 20% → 28% · 0.60 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.50 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.00 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Cole Perfetti (2024-25, 0.50 P/GP after), Brandon Saad (2024-25, 0.30 P/GP after), Ivan Barbashev (2025-26, 0.55 P/GP after)
All comps →Corey PerryR · TBL
Moved up the lineupApr 15, 2026 · TOI 12:39 → 16:12 (+3:33) · 0.40 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.38 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.05 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Max Domi (2025-26, 0.65 P/GP after), Ryan Leonard (2025-26, 0.90 P/GP after), Nino Niederreiter (2024-25, 0.35 P/GP after)
All comps →Vincent TrocheckC · NYR
Moved up the lineupApr 15, 2026 · TOI 19:06 → 20:19 (+1:13) · 0.50 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.53 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.10 vs before the jump); 2 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Zach Hyman (2025-26, 1.10 P/GP after), Elias Lindholm (2024-25, 0.50 P/GP after), Mika Zibanejad (2024-25, 0.55 P/GP after)
All comps →Yanni GourdeC · TBL
Ice-time spikeApr 15, 2026 · TOI 15:56 → 18:56 (+3:00) · 0.20 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.32 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.13 vs before the jump); 1 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Jason Dickinson (2025-26, 0.30 P/GP after), Luke Glendening (2019-20, 0.15 P/GP after), Nic Dowd (2025-26, 0.30 P/GP after)
All comps →Zemgus GirgensonsC · TBL
Ice-time spikeApr 15, 2026 · TOI 14:26 → 17:43 (+3:17) · 0.40 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.45 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.03 vs before the jump); 5 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Sam Steel (2025-26, 0.75 P/GP after), Zachary Aston-Reese (2024-25, 0.00 P/GP after), Ryan McLeod (2024-25, 0.85 P/GP after)
All comps →Scott SabourinR · TBL
Moved up the lineupApr 15, 2026 · TOI 7:52 → 11:27 (+3:35) · 0.00 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.15 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.09 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Maxim Tsyplakov (2025-26, 0.05 P/GP after), Juho Lammikko (2020-21, 0.15 P/GP after), Trent Frederic (2025-26, 0.15 P/GP after)
All comps →Oliver BjorkstrandR · TBL
Ice-time spikeApr 15, 2026 · TOI 10:36 → 19:16 (+8:40), PP share 30% → 51% · 0.20 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.47 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.17 vs before the jump); 5 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Sonny Milano (2017-18, 0.35 P/GP after), Kyle Turris (2019-20, 0.55 P/GP after), Ryan Greene (2025-26, 0.40 P/GP after)
All comps →Apr 15, 2026 · TOI 10:30 → 13:23 (+2:53) · 0.20 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.15 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.05 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Chris Wagner (2019-20, 0.05 P/GP after), Pontus Aberg (2017-18, 0.20 P/GP after), Marat Khusnutdinov (2024-25, 0.10 P/GP after)
All comps →Jordan GreenwayL · BUF
Ice-time spikeApr 15, 2026 · TOI 11:39 → 16:03 (+4:24) · 0.10 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.23 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.10 vs before the jump); 1 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Yakov Trenin (2025-26, 0.40 P/GP after), Radek Faksa (2024-25, 0.30 P/GP after), Sean Kuraly (2024-25, 0.20 P/GP after)
All comps →A.J. GreerL · FLA
Promoted to PP1Apr 15, 2026 · TOI 15:37 → 14:52 (−0:45), PP share 8% → 82% · 0.80 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.50 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.13 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Christian Dvorak (2025-26, 0.50 P/GP after), Brandon Saad (2024-25, 0.50 P/GP after), Pavel Dorofeyev (2024-25, 0.75 P/GP after)
All comps →Steven LorentzC · TOR
Ice-time spikeApr 15, 2026 · TOI 12:32 → 16:22 (+3:50) · 0.30 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.43 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.13 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: Michael Raffl (2019-20, 0.45 P/GP after), Blake Comeau (2017-18, 0.50 P/GP after), Sam Carrick (2024-25, 0.40 P/GP after)
All comps →Brett HowdenC · VGK
Moved up the lineupApr 15, 2026 · TOI 15:28 → 17:06 (+1:38), PP share 20% → 9% · 0.50 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.40 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.14 vs before the jump); 4 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: J.T. Compher (2025-26, 0.25 P/GP after), Joel Armia (2025-26, 0.40 P/GP after), Jackson Blake (2025-26, 0.70 P/GP after)
All comps →Beck MalenstynL · BUF
Ice-time spikeApr 15, 2026 · TOI 11:10 → 14:59 (+3:49) · 0.10 P/GP before
8 comps scored a median 0.40 P/GP over the next 20 games (+0.15 vs before the jump); 3 of 8 kept the role.
Closest comps: David Kampf (2024-25, 0.20 P/GP after), Justin Danforth (2024-25, 0.40 P/GP after), Stefan Noesen (2017-18, 0.45 P/GP after)
All comps →How the comps are built
- A jump is a promotion from our deployment tracker (PP1, a line move up, or an ice-time spike) or a sustained change we detect ourselves: TOI up 2:30 or more across 3 straight games, or power-play share up 20 points.
- The pre-jump profile covers the 10 games before: TOI, power-play share, expected goals per 60, shot diet (xG per unblocked attempt), points per game and age.
- Comps are the 8 nearest historical jumps at the same position group on those features plus the size of the jump, one per player, among jumps with a full 20-game outcome.
- We report what the comps did over the next 20 games (points per game and the change from before), and whether they kept at least half of the jump in games 11 to 20.
Expected goals use our trained xG model where games have been processed, and shots × league shooting % elsewhere. Ages come from NHL birth dates.
FAQ
What counts as a breakout jump?
A promotion to the first power-play unit, a move up the forward lines or defense pairs, a one-game ice-time spike our deployment tracker flags, or a sustained jump of 2:30+ of ice time over three games or 20+ points of power-play share.
How are comps chosen?
By nearest neighbours on a standardised feature vector: age, ice time, power-play share, expected goals per 60, shot diet and points per game before the jump, plus the size of the jump in ice time and power-play share. Comps must play the same position group and have a complete 20-game outcome.
Which seasons are in the comp pool?
Every season we have loaded (the page lists them), weighted toward recent seasons. A jump from last season counts 80% as much as one from this season, two seasons ago 60%, then half again for each older season. Older jumps need to be a closer match to make the list, and the median outcomes lean on the recent comps, because roles and scoring levels drift.
Does keeping the role matter?
Yes. Most one-game promotions do not stick. The kept-role rate tells you how often similar jumps lasted, which is usually the difference between a pickup and a trap.